You may by now recognize Mike, who is a new NFTRH subscriber and who has had a lot of input and questions in the comments section. I think that is of good value, because it adds color to individual posts. Mike asks (by email)… Gary, CPI flat, inflation expectations down. –Gold, why down after quick pop? –Wheat, why up? –Oil, down, understood I think –Stocks, … Continue reading Post-CPI observations, per request
Do you see all the ‘!’ I used in the title? I must be a TA trying to convince you of something. Sensationalism is about all that some TAs have, after all. They baffle you with bullshit because they sure don’t help you with any kind of reasonable analysis based only on charts. I am talking about the TAs – prominent in the precious metals, … Continue reading ‘A bearish sign on Nutrien’s chart’ says media garbage purveyor Benzinga!!!!
NFTRH 717, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see all options … Continue reading NFTRH 717, out now
As the markets react to lagging data, a couple of personal bright spots My brain look tends to look forward but the market’s brain all too often seems to be looking back. Think about all the predictable news-chasing the machines have consistently done in 2022. There may be individual strategists approaching this market with intelligence, but who (and what) ever make up the balance of … Continue reading 2 bright spots
BLS reports job gains of 528,000 in July Click headline, get full BLS report. This ought to keep Hazel good and busy as Americans lap up Professional & Business services, Education & Health services, Leisure & Hospitality services and Government services. Why it’s a reflection of the temporary ‘Goldilocks’ theme we’ve been working to. If you recall the massive yield curve flattener from 2013 to … Continue reading July Payrolls +528,000
FOMC is 1.5 months away but the jawbones interfere with markets at will  I actually got up on the wrong side of the bed, so I am not my usual pleasant self. I’ve been getting up on that side of the bed since getting run over by this a-hole on Saturday night… Fed’s Daly says ‘our work is far from done’ on inflation; Evans … Continue reading Enter the Jawbones [w/ edit]
As inflationary pressures ease, inflation-centric gold bugs do the wrong thing It is ridiculous, but they are out there, en masse. They buy gold stocks for the same reason they buy oil, copper and other cyclical and more inflation sensitive commodities. They are the inflationist gold bugs and they follow the dogma of their influencers, with no second level thinking. No critical thought or logic. … Continue reading Inflationists pressuring gold mining stocks
For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see all options and more info. Keep … Continue reading NFTRH 716, out now
I came up with this during an FOMC week when I was often not looking too closely at markets so as not to be tempted to out think myself. Observations: I am no singer, but I like doing it anyway. Dog gone it, it’s fun. The guitar sounds like a chicken with its head cut off and indeed, that is why it got its name … Continue reading Run Chicken
The time is now for the broad market rally to gain a following It’s a bear market. The trends make that assertion, not me. But as noted in an NFTRH update on July 28th… FOMC came. FOMC laid a .75% egg. FOMC rode off into the sunset until September. Meanwhile, signs of global economic contraction continue to crop up as the Fed fights the last … Continue reading Post-FOMC contrarian window open
I realize that NFTRH premium is not for everyone, even though I wish it were. It is not for those who want only the quick hits and ‘need to know’ up/down, bullish/bearish conclusions without the supporting work that informs those views. It is not for day traders or pure chart readers who don’t care about the macro backdrop and why it is important to understand … Continue reading New website feature: view public posts only
Hot off the press… Recent indicators of spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events … Continue reading FOMC: Speed readers on your marks…
As the almighty Fed (of Oz) prepares to render its decision… Treasury bonds continue to hammer out interesting daily chart patterns. Some notes on this… The daily charts say one thing but the long-term charts (e.g. the 30yr yield ‘Continuum’) say another, speaking to time frames and a wider angle perspective. Markets, while chaotic this year, are playing ball with bonds in that there are … Continue reading Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential
It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile market, we have nailed the interest rate backdrop that the now hawking Fed has been whipsawed by and is trying to catch up to. But over educated eggheads will be over educated eggheads, and as … Continue reading 30yr on the way to 2.5%?