2 year Treasury bond yield

The most important chart in the world!

Just kidding. It’s a reference to some gold bug man staring at a gold chart… …many years ago, labeling it “the most important chart in the world”. Some things just stick with me. 2 year Treasury bond yield is important across the macro Yes, it is very important because it has been a primary guide for the Fed to get (tardy though they were) and … Continue reading The most important chart in the world!

SPY vs. SP… err, TLT

Headline US stock market ETF vs. headline US Treasury market ETF The daily chart of the SPY/TLT ratio shows the broad US stock market (incl. dividends) clinging to its major uptrend (SMA 200) relative to long-term US Treasury bonds (incl. dividends). As with other indicators to disinflationary/deflationary 2023, this one is in transition. All good things in their due time, eh Beuller? So the indication … Continue reading SPY vs. SP… err, TLT

Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls?

Take a look at the yield on the long bond. Take a listen to all those formerly loud Treasury BOND BEARS!!! Now all you hear are crickets. So are we now risk ‘off’ enough for the yield to make a low? Has the whole cacophonous mess been shut up? Do people still think they understand the Fed and its motivations? Look, I don’t fully understand … Continue reading Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls?

Pigs Diverging the 10yr Yield

As noted in this week’s NFTRH US & Global Market Internals segment, an important leader is failing to lead. That is all the more notable because said important leader is the Bank sector, which is normally well correlated to long-term interest rates. What is up with this disconnect? What is KBE/SPY telling us about the yield and/or the state of economic health if the yield … Continue reading Pigs Diverging the 10yr Yield

@ Biiwii: “A Different Look at the US Yield Curve”

It’s actually a look we have noted in the past, which is that a steepening yield curve can either be driven by relatively declining short-term yields and an oncoming liquidity event or by relatively rising long-term yields and increasing inflation expectations. Steve Saville takes A Different Look at the US Yield Curve From the post: The reason that the next yield-curve trend reversal from flattening … Continue reading @ Biiwii: “A Different Look at the US Yield Curve”

Gold, US Stocks and Bonds

I’ll try to keep things simple with this recap of the 3 of the 5 major food groups (leaving aside commodities and currencies) for investors. No confusing you today with too many inter-market ratios, overly technical language or cute metaphors like the 3 Amigos (although it is notable that Amigo #2 is stopping exactly as we’d forecast, as you’ll see in the Bonds segment below). … Continue reading Gold, US Stocks and Bonds



So I guess if I am in the near-term bullish (inflationary) camp I am also in the long-term yields rising camp. Therefore I am inviting the 20+ year Treasury bond bear fund round the campfire to toast marshmallows with my other holdings. The 10 & 30 year yield breakouts have failed, but you may recall that the view included a lot of noise in-week around … Continue reading TBT

Bullshit Detectors at the Ready!

The US dollar is finally bouncing and so are Treasury yields. One of several legs that could get kicked out from under the S&P 500’s potentially bearish table is a firming USD. But that can take time to wear away at the market, beginning with exporters and over played global technology large caps. As for rising yields, that can benefit certain sectors like Financials and … Continue reading Bullshit Detectors at the Ready!

TIP, TLT and Their Messages, 1 Week on…

[edit] Man, I am a typo making machine when I am in a hurry…  :-(

A little over a week ago we had a subscriber update (now public) on TIP, TLT and some signals for the markets.  Let’s update the charts from the update.

Nominal TLT and TIP continue with their “bullish slant” by the weekly view.


The ratio between them, an inflation expectations indicator, continues to be weak but I continue to favor nominal TIP for any long-term T bond exposure due to forward inflation expectations that I expect to whip up eventually.  But this chart is indicative of the new downturn in commodities and another downturn in the ‘inflation trade’ we have expected.  It was just a bounce after all.  Weekly…

Continue reading “TIP, TLT and Their Messages, 1 Week on…”

Mixed Message in Bonds

Over in bond land where so many good market indicators live, we have a strange situation with the generally risk ‘OFF’ TLT (long-term Treasury) consolidating right along with the very risk ‘ON’ HYG (junk).  But TLT is trying to make a little sneak out of its flag today. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and … Continue reading Mixed Message in Bonds