Game On
Excerpted from the August 23rd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole Before Getting to the segment, I just found out that during the same week Bessent announced a stimulative…
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August 23, 2026
Richard Werner: Common Threads Through History
Economist Richard Werner spends 2+ hours making your head spin recounting historical events on a thread leading up to this very moment NFTRH - Notes From the Rabbit Hole -…
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May 24, 2026
Beginning Of The End, But First A Bond Rally…
A recession (and bond rally) is oncoming, but first the stock market has to finish doing what it does... [edit] In the time it took to write this post the…
September 5, 2025
2 year Treasury bond yield continues to firm
The 2 year Treasury bond yield is up on recently revived inflation expectations after the January Payrolls and CPI reports One has to assume that the January Payrolls report instigated…
February 15, 2023
The most important chart in the world!
Just kidding. It's a reference to some gold bug man staring at a gold chart... ...many years ago, labeling it "the most important chart in the world". Some things just…
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January 10, 2023
SPY vs. SP… err, TLT
Headline US stock market ETF vs. headline US Treasury market ETF The daily chart of the SPY/TLT ratio shows the broad US stock market (incl. dividends) clinging to its major…
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December 15, 2022
A Handy Yield Spread Tool
I searched for a live yield curve chart and could not find the curve as we usually view it, which is the 10yr-2yr available on a 1 day delay at…
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June 14, 2019
Is This Risk ‘Off’ Enough for Formerly Greedy Bulls?
Take a look at the yield on the long bond. Take a listen to all those formerly loud Treasury BOND BEARS!!! Now all you hear are crickets. So are we…
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December 20, 2018
Pigs Diverging the 10yr Yield
As noted in this week's NFTRH US & Global Market Internals segment, an important leader is failing to lead. That is all the more notable because said important leader is…
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September 17, 2018
@ Biiwii: “A Different Look at the US Yield Curve”
It's actually a look we have noted in the past, which is that a steepening yield curve can either be driven by relatively declining short-term yields and an oncoming liquidity…
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August 6, 2018
Gold, US Stocks and Bonds
I'll try to keep things simple with this recap of the 3 of the 5 major food groups (leaving aside commodities and currencies) for investors. No confusing you today with…
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May 25, 2018
TBT Goes ‘Complex’
Well, you can't win 'em all. I am still holding TBT but I did not want to see the lower low that came about today. Yet I've drawn in some…
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November 6, 2017
TBT
So I guess if I am in the near-term bullish (inflationary) camp I am also in the long-term yields rising camp. Therefore I am inviting the 20+ year Treasury bond…
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November 1, 2017
Bullshit Detectors at the Ready!
The US dollar is finally bouncing and so are Treasury yields. One of several legs that could get kicked out from under the S&P 500's potentially bearish table is a…
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September 27, 2017