The ratio of big Tech (QQQ) to the broader market (SPY) is in danger of making a secular top The log scale monthly chart (displaying percentage changes) shows a channel breakdown of a leader that held sway since 2006 as big Tech (QQQ) vs. SPY drops from the channel to test lateral support. If that area breaks down it’s not going to be pretty in … Continue reading QQQ/SPY Ratio; another long-term indicator trend in trouble
The ratio of the HUI Gold Bugs index to the broad S&P 500 has rallied for 4 months Hmm, what could could this be indicative of? Beuller? Answers, from the positive to the possibly interim mitigating, are all over my public articles, and in more strategic detail in NFTRH. But suffice it to say that plans are intact at this time. For “best of breed” … Continue reading Run Huey, run! HUI/SPX ratio continues apace
Imagining a bull pattern on the S&P 500 [edit] I neglected to mention another factor in support of the imaginary bull pattern below. That would be the divergent RSI (and MACD) higher lows at the recent market price lower low. Okay bears, hang onto that ball now… bulls are ready to take your ball and then chase you around the playground giving wedgies (no pattern … Continue reading S&P 500… beauty, eh? [w/ edit]
Tesla stock chart (weekly) shows a ripe gap waiting to fill Look at how badly 2022’s casino patrons have been beaten by one of their previous bull darlings. It’s amazing. Tesla stock is crashing out of a massive Head & Shoulders top with the scariest thing being the pattern’s measurement, which is to 4 (+/-) by my calculation. Okay, man who stares at charts, easy … Continue reading Ugly Tesla stock chart gap fill coming sooner or later
Headline US stock market ETF vs. headline US Treasury market ETF The daily chart of the SPY/TLT ratio shows the broad US stock market (incl. dividends) clinging to its major uptrend (SMA 200) relative to long-term US Treasury bonds (incl. dividends). As with other indicators to disinflationary/deflationary 2023, this one is in transition. All good things in their due time, eh Beuller? So the indication … Continue reading SPY vs. SP… err, TLT
The US stock market will make an up or down decision on the very short-term while the larger relief rally is still intact Yesterday as they bulled the markets on the November CPI report’s disinflationary whiff (ha ha), I noted my short positions against SPX and DJIA and how the sentiment relief party may have been ready to resume. Well, not so fast. A reversal … Continue reading After FOMC Nothingburger SPX still on plan
US stock market (SPX daily chart) heads for projected bear rally extremes Frankly, this is 100% on plan for the Q4-Q1 party, but I did not have a clear view on which gaps were going to get filled first, the upper or the lower (per the SPX daily chart below, which has been our guide in NFTRH each week). Hence my hedging, which I am … Continue reading The US stock market (SPX) is also… you guessed it, on plan
As the stock market’s sentiment relief rally has labored on, volume has diverged It’s not usually a good sign when an index, ETF or individual equity rises on diminishing volume. That implies fading conviction among casino patrons. SPY sees diminishing volume. DIA sees diminishing volume. SMH sees diminishing volume. QQQ sees diminishing volume. IWM sees diminishing volume. Conclusion The US stock market has risen on … Continue reading US stock market volume profiles are not impressive
The mainstream financial media advises that earnings are still okay The earnings apocalypse has not yet materialized From NFTRH 727… In support of this case [edit: a developing NFTRH market view for Q4 that is not expected by a majority], as Wall Street analysts busily adjust their earnings projections downward (I confirmed the downward projections by reading a recent report on the current earnings season … Continue reading “Earnings Apocalypse not yet realized” (yes, we know)
All due caveats about the men who stare at these things… SPX sports something of a Diamond formation, which is little more than a consolidation pattern with no firm implication of bullish or bearish (according to the TA handbook*). It’s merely a decision point. If the recent bounce was ‘A’ of a small A-B-C bear rally, the green arrow will hold true (potentially to the … Continue reading Man stares at SPX chart, sees S/T consolidation pattern
Gold/SPX (GLD/SPY) ratio still bulling Here we have an important view underneath the market’s surface, eh? For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a … Continue reading Gold in relation to broad US stocks (SPX), fyi…
Dynavax stock plummets after decision not to sell [edit] Oh and look! There’s a ‘golden’ cross of the moving averages soon met with the inevitable move in the opposite direction. Maybe this is my punishment for making fun of the robo-media and its recent NTR ‘death’ cross. I had two Biotech related stocks that were rampaging. DVAX and TWST, taken as part of the anticipated … Continue reading Hello, my name is Gary and I am an ‘investor’ [w/ edit]
…it’s a market in trouble. This is a disgusting daily chart of the Healthcare sector ETF, XLV. Especially when you consider that the ratio of said defensive sector is firmly in a rising trend vs. the broad market as we’ve been tracking for months now in NFTRH. By the way, the rise is not (yet) impulsive. Historically, the impulsivity of this ratio has indicated whether … Continue reading When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this…
S&P 500 is at resistance I found this weekly chart in the chart list showing the old pattern target NFTRH established back in 2020 (it topped a couple hundred points higher). Not coincidentally, 3400 is our minimum bear market target and would represent a round trip back to the pattern top and clear support. At the moment I am short nothing as I’ve been greedy … Continue reading SPX weekly chart situation
