SPX and its US index fellows are in rough shape. That’s a Captain Obvious statement, but we’ve been tracking the degrading situation by weekly charts like the one at the end of the post for several weeks now. Last week the Powell jawbone followed the Brainard and Bullard jawbones, and the whole lot of them came later than they should have considering that the 3 … Continue reading SPX; a bad chart
Two extreme sentiment indicators said ‘rally’  Okay man who stares at chart, make a post in pre-market and see the thing reverse at open. NQ chart below is still above the dashed (tentative) support line and should hold that to keep the theme in play. NFTRH 702 reviewed the bearish weekly charts of the main US stock market indexes. It’s not that I wanted … Continue reading Were AAII & II right? [w/ edit]
Not very happy signaling from the Pigs Neither nominal KBE… …nor the KBE/SPY ratio are looking very good in the face of rising yields. Indeed, KBE above is in a nasty looking pattern as it stands now. The banks are normally thought to benefit from rising yields, but I think a ‘carry’ on the short end is busted. But then again, you could view the … Continue reading Banks/Broads in the face of elevated L/T yields
Man stares at NDX chart, sees RSI/MACD divergence It’s far from the most important news in the world, even financial market news. Indeed, NDX has a case for an eventual move lower that we are watching. But this case right here argues something more short-term positive. However, as yet NDX has not even taken back even the shortest-term uptrend at the EMA 20. The divergence … Continue reading Nasdaq 100 positive divergence
Zscaler breaks the scale with the weight of bloated valuation I love the company. I love its cool name. I love its growth. But yesterday’s add of FTNT (and its rich valuation) aside, I try to be sensitive about valuation. Every time I looked at ZS and its nosebleed valuation I just had to say no thanks. I think I last owned it in those … Continue reading Z (breaks the) Scale (r)
VIX spike is getting excessive Regardless whether this is the start of a bear market (and the changing moving average trends on the VIX indicate it could well be), the spike is getting overdone. I think that if you are shorting this market now because a group of economic eggheads are meeting to conspire about how to stuff the inflation it let out of the … Continue reading Volatility at risk
As the US stock market corrects… US indexes are largely intact, and that includes NDX, even as everybody hates Tech now. SOX is intact too, but as we’ve noted for weeks in NFTRH, was vulnerable to correction of its own overbought excesses (especially by the sexiest Semi leaders like NVDA and AMD). SPX is nose diving for a test of its SMA 200 and so … Continue reading Stock market correction or something worse?
Small caps (IWM) are precarious There is an old saying among the men who stare at charts… “The more times a support level is tested the weaker it becomes.” Okay, men who stare at charts. Let’s see if your saying is right. IWM has banged support no less than six times and is doing it again. To boot, the price is below the moving averages, … Continue reading Small Caps ETF (IWM); the weaker it becomes?
Small Caps (IWM) are at a technical decision point And that decision is between breakdown or a hold of the daily trends of the SMA 50 (intermediate) and SMA 200 (major). This market seems to revel in keeping players in suspense (ref. the Copper/Gold ratio and other as yet undecided macro indicators). I would think that a loss of the small caps would not be … Continue reading You can bet a lot of eyes are on this ‘W’ pattern
The Medical Device ETF is breaking a trend line We have tracked market leadership by the SOX>NDX>SPX chain closely in NFTRH. It is one of the keys to an ongoing bullish stance. But here is another traditional leader we have tracked/traded/picked components of for several years. IHI is in a stance that would put pain to bears if it starts playing catch up. Double bottom … Continue reading Another US stock market leader gets in gear
Small Cap (Russell 2000) iShares is at important support The chart of IWM implies that the correction needs to end sooner rather than later or some markets are going to go in the dumper (many global markets, esp. those vulnerable to a strong dollar, already are). Interesting, since January is traditionally thought of as ‘small cap’ month. For “best of breed” top down analysis of … Continue reading Small caps at critical support
NDX and SOX filler their upper gaps Ref. last Thursday’s… Not in love with these gaps While SPX and DJIA are still working on theirs, the market leader (Tech) and its leader (Semi) have filled their upper gaps. There are still lower gaps to be dealt with some day, but until this is a real and hysterical Fed-fear event that may come later. In order … Continue reading Two of four gaps filled
US stock market indexes sporting gaps Gaps don’t need to fill on any given time schedule, but unless they are pure breakaway gaps they will usually fill sooner or later. So, while we may look at these charts and be concerned about the gaps, you could also project a scenario where they don’t fill until the next major correction or bear market (hello 2022?). Anyway, … Continue reading Not in love with these gaps
Banks are posting a strong quarter The inflation (money printing by the Fed) has brought reflation (economic benefits of said inflation) and none are more targeted for benefit than the Pigs… err, that is, the banks. I have not read the article, but you can if you’d like by clicking the graphic. The headline gives reasons like something called a reserve release, advisory and asset … Continue reading Of course the Pigs are flying