Dynavax stock plummets after decision not to sell  Oh and look! There’s a ‘golden’ cross of the moving averages soon met with the inevitable move in the opposite direction. Maybe this is my punishment for making fun of the robo-media and its recent NTR ‘death’ cross. I had two Biotech related stocks that were rampaging. DVAX and TWST, taken as part of the anticipated … Continue reading Hello, my name is Gary and I am an ‘investor’ [w/ edit]
…it’s a market in trouble. This is a disgusting daily chart of the Healthcare sector ETF, XLV. Especially when you consider that the ratio of said defensive sector is firmly in a rising trend vs. the broad market as we’ve been tracking for months now in NFTRH. By the way, the rise is not (yet) impulsive. Historically, the impulsivity of this ratio has indicated whether … Continue reading When a relatively ‘defensive’ sector is doing this…
S&P 500 is at resistance I found this weekly chart in the chart list showing the old pattern target NFTRH established back in 2020 (it topped a couple hundred points higher). Not coincidentally, 3400 is our minimum bear market target and would represent a round trip back to the pattern top and clear support. At the moment I am short nothing as I’ve been greedy … Continue reading SPX weekly chart situation
Stocks enter a bear market! Stocks enter a bear market based on some arbitrary percentage that lazy media assign to it. So, like 19% was okay? No dear MSfN, stocks were indicated to have entered a bear market (of some kind) back in February when the weekly chart of SPX crossed its moving averages down (red arrow) and failed to climb above either of them … Continue reading Stocks fell into a bear market on Friday!
SPX and its US index fellows are in rough shape. That’s a Captain Obvious statement, but we’ve been tracking the degrading situation by weekly charts like the one at the end of the post for several weeks now. Last week the Powell jawbone followed the Brainard and Bullard jawbones, and the whole lot of them came later than they should have considering that the 3 … Continue reading SPX; a bad chart
Two extreme sentiment indicators said ‘rally’  Okay man who stares at chart, make a post in pre-market and see the thing reverse at open. NQ chart below is still above the dashed (tentative) support line and should hold that to keep the theme in play. NFTRH 702 reviewed the bearish weekly charts of the main US stock market indexes. It’s not that I wanted … Continue reading Were AAII & II right? [w/ edit]
Not very happy signaling from the Pigs Neither nominal KBE… …nor the KBE/SPY ratio are looking very good in the face of rising yields. Indeed, KBE above is in a nasty looking pattern as it stands now. The banks are normally thought to benefit from rising yields, but I think a ‘carry’ on the short end is busted. But then again, you could view the … Continue reading Banks/Broads in the face of elevated L/T yields
Man stares at NDX chart, sees RSI/MACD divergence It’s far from the most important news in the world, even financial market news. Indeed, NDX has a case for an eventual move lower that we are watching. But this case right here argues something more short-term positive. However, as yet NDX has not even taken back even the shortest-term uptrend at the EMA 20. The divergence … Continue reading Nasdaq 100 positive divergence
Zscaler breaks the scale with the weight of bloated valuation I love the company. I love its cool name. I love its growth. But yesterday’s add of FTNT (and its rich valuation) aside, I try to be sensitive about valuation. Every time I looked at ZS and its nosebleed valuation I just had to say no thanks. I think I last owned it in those … Continue reading Z (breaks the) Scale (r)
VIX spike is getting excessive Regardless whether this is the start of a bear market (and the changing moving average trends on the VIX indicate it could well be), the spike is getting overdone. I think that if you are shorting this market now because a group of economic eggheads are meeting to conspire about how to stuff the inflation it let out of the … Continue reading Volatility at risk
As the US stock market corrects… US indexes are largely intact, and that includes NDX, even as everybody hates Tech now. SOX is intact too, but as we’ve noted for weeks in NFTRH, was vulnerable to correction of its own overbought excesses (especially by the sexiest Semi leaders like NVDA and AMD). SPX is nose diving for a test of its SMA 200 and so … Continue reading Stock market correction or something worse?
Small caps (IWM) are precarious There is an old saying among the men who stare at charts… “The more times a support level is tested the weaker it becomes.” Okay, men who stare at charts. Let’s see if your saying is right. IWM has banged support no less than six times and is doing it again. To boot, the price is below the moving averages, … Continue reading Small Caps ETF (IWM); the weaker it becomes?
Small Caps (IWM) are at a technical decision point And that decision is between breakdown or a hold of the daily trends of the SMA 50 (intermediate) and SMA 200 (major). This market seems to revel in keeping players in suspense (ref. the Copper/Gold ratio and other as yet undecided macro indicators). I would think that a loss of the small caps would not be … Continue reading You can bet a lot of eyes are on this ‘W’ pattern
The Medical Device ETF is breaking a trend line We have tracked market leadership by the SOX>NDX>SPX chain closely in NFTRH. It is one of the keys to an ongoing bullish stance. But here is another traditional leader we have tracked/traded/picked components of for several years. IHI is in a stance that would put pain to bears if it starts playing catch up. Double bottom … Continue reading Another US stock market leader gets in gear