Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets

Gold’s ratios to cyclical markets continue to pivot Just an updated picture of the macro pivoting toward what will be a positive fundamental backdrop for gold mining. The holdout continues to be the last inflated man standing, crude oil and the energy sector. While Gold/Oil is still pinned gold has made a move of the bottom vs. Energy stocks (XLE). That’s something, at least. When … Continue reading Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets

Silver/Gold ratio also on message [w/ edit]

The message is anti-inflationary Conveniently, with FOMC coming up on July 27th, inflation signals continue to unwind. Hmmm, and right into what on average is a seasonal low in the precious metals in July. I am holding DUST as a short against the gold miners but want to make sure I am not feeling too self-congratulatory about it [edit: I shook myself out for a … Continue reading Silver/Gold ratio also on message [w/ edit]

Just another Cu & Cu/Au post

Copper and Copper/Gold continue the dark messaging These things take longer than you’d think when you initiate the analysis at its start. It was about a year ago that I began watching for negative divergences to the inflation that even then was front page news. Then economic Doctor Copper embarked on a forever sideways journey of ups and downs before finally breaking down for real … Continue reading Just another Cu & Cu/Au post

Sunny Day

It’s Gary in a good mood on a sunny day. Why read more into it than that? I have enough of the other kind of days. I hope we get a few more sunny ones over the holiday weekend (though I’ll be working as normal on Saturday into Sunday). Song is all Strat this time. I am glad I unearthed that git fiddle. I like … Continue reading Sunny Day

Gold vs. the ‘Inflation Expectations’ ETF

Gold is doing fairly poorly in its own right, but potentially bottoming vs. ‘inflation expectations’ (which are a key Fed consideration) The gold price (futures) is in a potential ‘W’ bottom posture in relation to the ETF (RINF) dreamed up to reflect inflation expectations. There is a long way to go to signal a new anti-inflationary phase upon the macro, but with the inflation headlines … Continue reading Gold vs. the ‘Inflation Expectations’ ETF

Another inflation headline, another contrary bond market reaction

Core consumption rose, Treasury yields pull back Treasury bonds are still in downtrends, and thus yields are still in uptrends. So the inflation play is technically not yet broken from a Treasury bond POV. But it is interesting how the inflation trades continue to unwind (check out commodity tracker DBC ticking a new low today after failing to get back above its daily SMA 50) … Continue reading Another inflation headline, another contrary bond market reaction

‘Anti’ markets

These daily charts are flipped over to a view that is ‘anti’ their normal selves I have often referred to the improbably bullish (to many; NFTRH has tracked and respected the bullish dollar for a year now) US dollar as an anti-market, the liquidity collector from the global liquidity-driven and speculative mess created by the Fed and its fellows. But here is a look at … Continue reading ‘Anti’ markets

As inflation expectations continue to roll over, so do the gold miners

Who is surprised that the inflation bugs are selling gold stocks? Now a favored plan may be kicking into gear. That plan would see future buying from the miserable hands of those that listened to the loudest, most greed inspiring gold/inflation bugs at the gold websites, Twitter, Reddit forums and various other pump stations. If you bought gold stocks because… INFLATION! You bought wrong. It … Continue reading As inflation expectations continue to roll over, so do the gold miners

America needs to get its ass in gear on Semi

As the Biden administration obsesses on faulty and fantastical green initiatives (and all that carbon needed to implement them), the US is falling behind in the critical Semiconductor space This article is an interesting read. In an increasingly dangerous geopolitical world of shooting wars, cyber wars and monetary policy wars (say, who’s been among those big global Treasury bond sellers?) there is one war that … Continue reading America needs to get its ass in gear on Semi

T-Bill yield up, RINF down today

The 3 month T-Bill yield is up while inflation expectations continue to moderate Despite the recent decline in inflation expectations by this marker (as noted in NFTRH 711)… The 3 month T-Bill yield (IRX, top panel), one of our guides that have compelled the Fed to fully tar and feather itself in its hawk costume, is up hard today while the inflation expectations tracker (RINF) … Continue reading T-Bill yield up, RINF down today

copper price (futures)

Doctor Copper: Oversold bounce

It’s an oversold bounce for the copper price, the Copper/Gold ratio and likely other commodities The daily copper price (futures) is showing a logical bounce from a small support shelf and a deeply oversold condition (RSI). The Copper/Gold ratio, one of our primary economic signalers, is showing the same. Of course, anything can happen. But on the face of it this chart advises the potential … Continue reading Doctor Copper: Oversold bounce

bitcoin

Bitcoin: Support here or lower?

Support #1 for Bitcoin has been hit, but #2 is well lower My preferred no-brainer target – per NFTRH’s Currencies segment – has been 12,500 as we’ve been noting for most of 2022. But Bitcoin (BTCUSD) did touch the December 2017 high, which can also be considered viable support. That is a lot of damage done to the Bitcoin promoters and especially their herds. I … Continue reading Bitcoin: Support here or lower?

SSRM: Only a gold stock… [w/ edit]

SSR Mining stock included in Russell 1000, gets clobbered [edit] Thanks to subscriber MM: “shut down main mine due to cyanide leak into water table.” I can’t find any other news other than SSRM’s inclusion in the Russell 1000 index. Only a gold stock could put on this kind of Keystone Cop routine on a positive news event that would drive up most other stocks … Continue reading SSRM: Only a gold stock… [w/ edit]