xle, energy sector ETF

Energy sector ETF (XLE) Diamond consolidation unresolved

The Energy sector ETF is still in consolidation And I am still short the “last inflated man standing”. That could be for as long as it takes XLE to bust to the upside <sad face> or, if it does as it ‘should’, drop out of the Diamond to at least support at 83, if not lower <glad face>. For “best of breed” top down analysis … Continue reading Energy sector ETF (XLE) Diamond consolidation unresolved

HUI rally hits short-term target

HUI Gold Bugs index has hit the bottom/bounce target at the daily SMA 200 Note: This post was begun on December 1, up to and including the two HUI charts below. The post was completed on December 2, after the November payrolls provided a good instigation for a broad market pullback, which included a ding to the miners from this logical resistance point. December 1 … Continue reading HUI rally hits short-term target

November Payrolls +263k

In another surprise (not), November Payrolls increased more than expected It’s a process, rolling an economy over. November Payrolls exceeded expectations and given the season and the nature of Payrolls as a lagging indicator, it’s no impediment to the 2023 economic contraction view. Nope, nuh uh. You can click the graphic to get the report from BLS: On to the details, we find the Good … Continue reading November Payrolls +263k

jerome powell press conference on rate hikes

A jawbone of a different kind

Powell cheers the stock market with words of a softening stance Or at least that is how markets are interpreting the smaller rate hikes to come. Problem is, we already knew that December was very likely to see .5% hike, not the .75% that markets have become accustomed to. Click image to get article (which I have not read because… why would I need to?). … Continue reading A jawbone of a different kind

2 year treasury note commitments of traders

Risk/Reward in the 2-year Treasury note is positive

Commitments of Traders (CoT) in the 2-year Treasury note flashes contrary bullish Interesting positioning data on the 2-year Treasury note. As per our favorable view of bonds for a 2023 deflationary uproar that catches inflation obsessed herds off sides, Commercial traders are heavily long the 2-year note while large Specs are heavily short. That is a completely bullish alignment on a contrarian basis as Commercials … Continue reading Risk/Reward in the 2-year Treasury note is positive

US stock market volume profiles are not impressive

As the stock market’s sentiment relief rally has labored on, volume has diverged It’s not usually a good sign when an index, ETF or individual equity rises on diminishing volume. That implies fading conviction among casino patrons. SPY sees diminishing volume. DIA sees diminishing volume. SMH sees diminishing volume. QQQ sees diminishing volume. IWM sees diminishing volume. Conclusion The US stock market has risen on … Continue reading US stock market volume profiles are not impressive

Updating the “last inflated man standing”

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) continues a would-be topping situation Why yes, I got clowned a little last week as I was compelled by my personal psych profile and risk management to take a much smaller profit on Energy short ERY than had I done it a day earlier when I made this post. But on Friday per the trade log… Well, I shorted the … Continue reading Updating the “last inflated man standing”