30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated

The 30 year Treasury bond yield (Continuum) is 100% on the NFTRH plan The plan was set in motion when first the the 30 year Treasury yield (TYX) took out the ‘limiters’ (what I called the monthly EMA 100 & 120) and turned them to support. Then after the yield took out the next target at 3.45% we were on a hysterical spike to the … Continue reading 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated

30 year treasury bond yield (tyx)

Q4-Q1 plan engages

Relief provided by an easing October CPI ‘inflation’ report the trigger It was bound to happen sooner or later. October finally showed an easing comp in what most people think of as inflation (CPI)* and markets that were ripe to rally for other reasons used the ‘CPI inflation’ report as the trigger. NFTRH has been on alert for a potentially positive Q4, 2022 to Q1, … Continue reading Q4-Q1 plan engages

CPI: The munny shot!

Year over year CPI inflation rate eases in October An easing in concerns about the effects of the Fed’s 2020 creation of massive sums of funny munny. Frankly, I was mentally prepared for yet another year over year CPI comp to instigate negative headlines and more angst because how, absent a crystal ball, do you definitively predict which month will be the trigger? But for … Continue reading CPI: The munny shot!

5 year breakeven inflation rate

5 to 30 year ‘Breakeven Inflation Rates’ paint a different picture than RINF

‘Inflation expectations’ ETF out of phase with most ‘Inflation Breakevens’ Here is what RINF does, per its creator… ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF seeks investment results, before fees and expenses, that track the performance of the FTSE 30-Year TIPS (Treasury Rate-Hedged) Index. I am sure the inputs are different, but RINF tracks the St. Louis Fed’s 30yr Breakeven Inflation rate most closely. But even there, per … Continue reading 5 to 30 year ‘Breakeven Inflation Rates’ paint a different picture than RINF

The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as … Continue reading The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

“Post-bubble contraction”

“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble … Continue reading “Post-bubble contraction”

CPI on message

CPI increases more than expected, but it’s not forward-looking See Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes Well first of all guys, CPI is not inflation. It is a measure of the effects of the inflation that was manufactured over 2 years ago. If Steve Saville‘s interpretation of Austrian True Money Supply (TMS) is on point – and I think it … Continue reading CPI on message

.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way

FOMC, inflation, commodities & gold Even as inflation expectations roll over from the 2022 high… …the CRB index continues to bounce. Here’s DBC for an up to the minute view. This is of course driven by OPEC and its ‘+’ members conniving to manipulate the price of oil, one of the prime drivers of CRB/DBC. And CME Group has upped the .75% rate hike probability … Continue reading .75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way

Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields

Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold correlated with the 10yr yield From yardeni.com, a visual representation of one implication of the Copper/Gold ratio, which I often make a big deal about. If the Copper/Gold ratio has broken down for real (I believe it has) then yields are going to reverse, along with the inflation trades. That’s a theme I’ve had going for about a year now, but this … Continue reading Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields

Media sporting Wood again (about deflation)

Say, did you know that Cathie Wood favors deflation? Why yes ladies and gentlemen, foremost overvalued story stock picker Cathie Wood thinks deflation is coming. That is quite contrarian alright and something I favor for 2023. Problem being, she was also calling deflation and declining oil a year ago as well, with oil at $80/bbl. It then went to $130 before dropping to today’s $88. … Continue reading Media sporting Wood again (about deflation)

nftrh 717

Post-CPI observations, per request

You may by now recognize Mike, who is a new NFTRH subscriber and who has had a lot of input and questions in the comments section. I think that is of good value, because it adds color to individual posts. Mike asks (by email)… Gary, CPI flat, inflation expectations down. –Gold, why down after quick pop? –Wheat, why up? –Oil, down, understood I think –Stocks, … Continue reading Post-CPI observations, per request

Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential

As the almighty Fed (of Oz) prepares to render its decision… Treasury bonds continue to hammer out interesting daily chart patterns. Some notes on this… The daily charts say one thing but the long-term charts (e.g. the 30yr yield ‘Continuum’) say another, speaking to time frames and a wider angle perspective. Markets, while chaotic this year, are playing ball with bonds in that there are … Continue reading Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential

copper price (futures)

Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets

The copper price is tanking, and not just nominally As the upcoming FOMC is forced by market signals to keep its hawk suit on (as of today 54% of CME traders now expect a 1% rate hike with the remaining 46% in the .75% camp), global financial markets are bending to the pressure of Fed policy. The daily chart of copper futures is eyeballing the … Continue reading Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets

Epic (CPI) Inflation!!!!

Another CPI report, another big inflation headline All I can say (publicly) is that we are on track. I was actually concerned that today’s headline might be the opposite of the hysterical inflation headlines to date. You can click the image to get the article at CNBC if you’d like. Now, if market participants can just keep their contrarian spirits under wraps until FOMC and … Continue reading Epic (CPI) Inflation!!!!