von Mises Crack Up Boom could follow the negative economic effects of war There is currently much hype in the media about a hawkish Fed because the media wrongheadedly anticipates…
War is not inflation, printing is inflation I firmly believe that a great game of misdirection is in play, whether intentional or just out of ignorance. That misdirection is in…
War-driven oil prices are not causing inflation You just knew that is was going to happen; that the bombing of Iran and subsequent Iranian actions were going to drive up…
The view is and has been disinflation first, then a return of the inflationary macro Sometimes I feel as though I write the same public article over and over. But…
This article is only available at nftrh.com, anewsituation.com and Substack (sign up!) Interim Plan: Disinflation or Liquidity Scare? In 2023 we began planning for a disinflationary phase, and slowly but…
The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working…
A whiff of inflation from the Treasury market We are still in the realm of a whiff (hint, initial indication, a glint in inflation's eye) of a coming inflationary phase,…
The 10yr/2yr yield curve is taking on a steepening bias Just a little report from beneath the market's surface. If you're like me and you want to know the macro…
Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887): As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to…
Jackson Hole week is often used as a policy bull horn It is clear that the market is taking some froth off the top of several recently over-bullish areas (everything…
A premium excerpt of the first two segments of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 876 Market Talk At this point, far into the broad market…
The hot July PPI number is not inflation, it is an effect of inflation Just as I often write that the "inflation" numbers the media chase all over the place…
Credit expansion, AKA more and more debt, into von Mises' Crack-Up-Boom would bring Stagflation at best, and Hyperinflation at worst in the not too distant future [edit] Today's better than…
News of Treasury bonds' death was greatly exaggerated (and greatly promoted) Of course it was promoted... heavily. That is because here in the financial markets exists a great big herd…