Gold vs. the ‘Inflation Expectations’ ETF

Gold is doing fairly poorly in its own right, but potentially bottoming vs. ‘inflation expectations’ (which are a key Fed consideration) The gold price (futures) is in a potential ‘W’ bottom posture in relation to the ETF (RINF) dreamed up to reflect inflation expectations. There is a long way to go to signal a new anti-inflationary phase upon the macro, but with the inflation headlines … Continue reading Gold vs. the ‘Inflation Expectations’ ETF

Another inflation headline, another contrary bond market reaction

Core consumption rose, Treasury yields pull back Treasury bonds are still in downtrends, and thus yields are still in uptrends. So the inflation play is technically not yet broken from a Treasury bond POV. But it is interesting how the inflation trades continue to unwind (check out commodity tracker DBC ticking a new low today after failing to get back above its daily SMA 50) … Continue reading Another inflation headline, another contrary bond market reaction

As inflation expectations continue to roll over, so do the gold miners

Who is surprised that the inflation bugs are selling gold stocks? Now a favored plan may be kicking into gear. That plan would see future buying from the miserable hands of those that listened to the loudest, most greed inspiring gold/inflation bugs at the gold websites, Twitter, Reddit forums and various other pump stations. If you bought gold stocks because… INFLATION! You bought wrong. It … Continue reading As inflation expectations continue to roll over, so do the gold miners

T-Bill yield up, RINF down today

The 3 month T-Bill yield is up while inflation expectations continue to moderate Despite the recent decline in inflation expectations by this marker (as noted in NFTRH 711)… The 3 month T-Bill yield (IRX, top panel), one of our guides that have compelled the Fed to fully tar and feather itself in its hawk costume, is up hard today while the inflation expectations tracker (RINF) … Continue reading T-Bill yield up, RINF down today

A pivotal juncture for gold, gold stocks

Another hot CPI fails to suppress gold With FOMC on tap with an upcoming .5% rate hike, gold got hammered and bounced back with a vengeance on ‘CPI’ Friday. The Fed will raise the Funds Rate at least .5% next week. So says not me, but the wise guys whose job it is to correctly anticipate FOMC policy. Indeed, a full 20% of CME traders … Continue reading A pivotal juncture for gold, gold stocks

CPI approaches

The May CPI report hits the markets tomorrow No predictions, just a question. What do you suppose might happen if somehow CPI – backward looking indicator that it is – were to ease and/or come in below expectations? Markets are cracking left and right in anticipation of another steamer. I never did short anything (just increased cash), and decided not to do so into such … Continue reading CPI approaches

Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades

Gold/Silver ratio (and USD) would attend global liquidity stress I know. I know. It’s a mutant inflation and all, with global war and politics driving the bus now, and the Fed all but marginalized. But still, more monetary and counter-cyclical gold is rising in relation to silver (more cyclical, industrial and hence, commodity-like) and that is not cyclical inflationary signaling, especially with both metals struggling … Continue reading Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades

Hedging the different types of inflation

It’s not your Grandpa’s inflation, and managing it takes effort Thanks to subscriber MM for sending a link to this interview. I found it quite interesting because in commodities, buying a tracker to the actual commodity can be disgustingly poor as a strategy. For example, I hold USO. But I only hold it because of its 2 year long track record in relation to WTI. … Continue reading Hedging the different types of inflation

The Inflation Mutation

This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day. After … Continue reading The Inflation Mutation

yield curve

Yields up, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve still in steepening posture

The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve continues to posture for steepening The recent secondary inversion (initial inversion was August, 2019) continues to look like it has birthed a bouncing baby steepener. The question, however, is whether a new steepening would be inflationary or deflationary. Today is inflationary signaling with nominal yields up. That’s a microcosm driven by geopolitical stuff. I am not going to bet heavily one … Continue reading Yields up, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve still in steepening posture

Gold vs. Inflation Expectations

I have a page with several chart based indicators for NFTRH subscribers to review any time they’d like in order to dovetail what they may see there with the ongoing analysis in NFTRH and their own alternate sources as well. One of those indicators is the GLD/RINF ratio, which measures the gold price in terms of the variables that make up ‘inflation expectations’ ETF. Here … Continue reading Gold vs. Inflation Expectations

Wouldn’t you know, T-bonds continue to posture to rally

Amid hysterical inflation headlines, Treasury bonds remain firm Of course, inflation is yesterday’s news. That was the news that bonds had been reporting since mid-2020 when yields bottomed and turned up, culminating with a breakout from the Continuum’s limiting moving averages and a possible halt here below the key November, 2018 high. Now bonds are reporting something else. It’s no surprise that as the inflated … Continue reading Wouldn’t you know, T-bonds continue to posture to rally

Bonds again diverge inflation headlines

Bonds up today despite alarming inflation headlines The hysteria of the moment, served up as usual by the mainstream financial media off of backward looking data/results, has not resulted in bonds getting clobbered as would normally be expected. As was the case after last week’s CPI hysterics, Treasury bonds of all durations are positive today. This despite the very real and concerning inflation data behind … Continue reading Bonds again diverge inflation headlines