The tardy Fed and the new macro

As FOMC readies its .25% rate hike today… In 2021 and 2022 we called the Federal Reserve “tardy” on several occasions as they doggedly held to their “transitory” inflation stance long after reasonable people (using the right indicators) would have given up on such a notion. In this May 2, 2022 article we noted that they had finally started to move… too late. Eggheads tardy … Continue reading The tardy Fed and the new macro

Dow falls on fears the Fed will over tighten

Market fears the Fed will over tighten

Always needing an excuse for any given daily move, the MSfM serves up investors’ Fed tightening fears this morning You can click the image of a pensive trader staring intently at his flashing green and red numbers and charts to read whatever the article has to say. As it happens, the fear of Fed over tightening is traditionally a valid one as the 2 year … Continue reading Market fears the Fed will over tighten

u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)

2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates?

The 2 year Treasury yield inched up, then sagged The session ended with the 2 year Treasury yield up a teeny within the potential topping structure that we’ve been tracking in NFTRH the last couple of weeks. 2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates by half a point, indicates more hikes Yeah yeah, we get it. The Fed is hawking. The tardy Fed that … Continue reading 2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates?

November cpi report on inflation

November CPI report: We’re on plan

As the November CPI report moderates, disinflation continues apace As the great and powerful Fed of Oz prepares to render his decision (ha ha ha) on the Fed Funds rate, the bond market is popping and leading a party atmosphere (well, Wayne and Garth have been in party mode all along) in other markets to party along too. I know, because I am short both … Continue reading November CPI report: We’re on plan

jerome powell press conference on rate hikes

A jawbone of a different kind

Powell cheers the stock market with words of a softening stance Or at least that is how markets are interpreting the smaller rate hikes to come. Problem is, we already knew that December was very likely to see .5% hike, not the .75% that markets have become accustomed to. Click image to get article (which I have not read because… why would I need to?). … Continue reading A jawbone of a different kind

FOMC hot off the press…

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional … Continue reading FOMC hot off the press…

The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as … Continue reading The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]

As per one of my favorite ‘not taking the analysis too seriously’ market memes… …we note that global casino patrons are good and pissed, scared and downright apoplectic. Especially overseas as the US exports inflation to the rest of the world with the delivery vehicle being the chronically strong US dollar. The Fed is in control. All eyes on the great monetary authority which shall … Continue reading Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]

Fed minutes: what else is new?

Fed minutes show the hawking Fed fully feathered They can’t be this dumb. So there has to be a reason why the Fed, despite myriad signs of economic and inflationary deceleration (inflationary operations created the post-pandemic economy after all), keeps going full speed ahead. You can click Powell’s mug to read the article. I call them eggheads in a condescending way, but they are not … Continue reading Fed minutes: what else is new?

.75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way

FOMC, inflation, commodities & gold Even as inflation expectations roll over from the 2022 high… …the CRB index continues to bounce. Here’s DBC for an up to the minute view. This is of course driven by OPEC and its ‘+’ members conniving to manipulate the price of oil, one of the prime drivers of CRB/DBC. And CME Group has upped the .75% rate hike probability … Continue reading .75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way

CME wiseguys see at least .5%, favor .75% for next FOMC meeting

CME Group traders favor a .75% Fed Funds Rate hike on November 2nd Meanwhile, inflation expectations have been cracking lately. My thesis is and has been that the Fed is going make damn sure they exterminate this (inflation) monster they were primary in creating. Because if it regains life it will eat them alive and end their racket. For “best of breed” top down analysis … Continue reading CME wiseguys see at least .5%, favor .75% for next FOMC meeting

Speed readers to your marks…

Because here’s the anticlimactic event (that’s an assumption because this is written prior to the FOMC release) you’ve been waiting for… September 21, 2022 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply … Continue reading Speed readers to your marks…