Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887): As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to…
Excerpted from the October 12th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 884: [edit] A reader commented at the Substack version of this article (please subscribe, it's free) suggesting…
My tin foil hat says that Janet Yellen at Treasury was instrumental in the Powell Fed's policy (and she's not there anymore) We all know the Fed is impartial, right?…
Jackson Hole week is often used as a policy bull horn It is clear that the market is taking some froth off the top of several recently over-bullish areas (everything…
Under the Federal Reserve system, the U.S. is not a capitalist country, it is a socialist welfare state for the elite, compliments of inflation Socialism For the Elite, Not Capitalism…
The 10yr-2yr and 10yr-3mo Yield Curves show the Fed to be behind, well, the curve With a deflationary impulse, which we have anticipated, that is the product of the already…
If the 2yr yield is leading the 3 mo. T-bill yield (it is), the 10-3 mo. yield curve will follow the 10-2 yield curve I've used this chart repeatedly to…
As FOMC readies another rate decision, its irrelevance has never been more apparent I started my market management service in 2008 with the imagery of renowned children's fantasy, Alice In…
Mohamed Aly El-Erian has it right; the Fed is a play-by-play caller A play-by-play caller with multiple orifices always at the ready to eat a microphone and influence the mindset…
A little discussion about this thing we call "inflation" after the January CPI report A vast majority of people see inflation as rising prices, wages and 'pushed' costs within the…
January CPI ticks up .3%, market reacting predictably in full submission to the great and powerful Fed of Oz Click image, get the news, hot off the presses! We have…
The seasonal party continues but, danger is ahead The strategy of how to navigate what is ahead has been generally covered in NFTRH and with post-FOMC clarity, it is being…
If rapid M2 percentage growth forecast an inflation problem back in 2020, why would it not be forecasting deflationary pressure now? As far back April, 2020 NFTRH was forecasting a…
With inflation fading, the US Federal Reserve continues to the fight against... inflation! The question is 'why?'. Why do Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve continue to tilt against the…