“Truthful analysis above bias and ideology, at all times!“
Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Why the rabbit hole?
Because I learned the hard way in 1999-2000 that I was no stock picking genius. I was merely running with the Tech herd of that time.
I learned that I must separate myself from that damn herd and educate myself as best I could in market psychology, macro-fundamental analysis and while I was at it, continue to improve and expand my TA abilities.
While undertaking those initiatives, I fell down a rabbit hole inhabited by disaffected market professionals and other oddballs. It was learning on steroids. But it also taught me that if you go too far into the market’s counter-culture, you’re going to earn a tin foil hat.
So, in Wonderland “anything” is possible. Be as open minded as possible. See all sides, and develop tools that help guide that vision. But do not get swept up in it. Those were my thoughts.
I could have sold more subscriptions had I become known for something. Like bearish doom predictions, for example. That stuff really grabs the eyeballs. Like being a perma-gold tout, or worse, gold stock tout, for another example.
Speaking of which, I am a gold bug. If “gold bug” means strongly favoring a more straightforward monetary system (not run entirely on inflation created by a central planning agency). That would level the playing field for a much wider segment of the population. If it means viewing the heavy yellow metal as a constant store of value and barometer of macro risk.
Honesty Works Best
It sounds simplistic, but in the financial markets you must be honest with yourself, and I try to be that each and every day. If I am honest with myself, I am by definition providing my clients with honestly formed analysis, projections and opinions. There really are no stock pick gurus or any other kinds of gurus out there. There are just well honed marketing machines promoting such.
Managing the markets takes work, honest work aimed at fleshing out the clues that are beneath the surface waiting to be discovered. It happens for us (NFTRH) all the time. We are continually on the right side of the market’s internal gyrations because the analysis is honest with itself in that sometimes what I/we may want, is not what is in the cards. Period.
For example, NFTRH was rightly negative on gold stock fundamentals for many years as the macro was not conducive to a bullish view. But beginning in 2022, when the macro made profound changes, that view changed as well. Unbiased… that’s the only way to be. Hence, when I am able to be bullish, it is for the right reasons and thus, it is trustworthy.
That is what NFTRH is. Whether analyzing precious metals, U.S./Global stock markets, commodities, bonds, etc., the mission is to be on the right side during any given market phase. Not to have a pre-determined ideology proven out after perhaps years of futility.
If I find I am on the wrong course, I find it out early and adjust immediately. When we are on the right course, the work is done to continue to prove it is the right course in sort of “steady as she goes” manner.
Remaining unbiased is harder than it looks. It takes work. It takes discipline. It takes tools. At NFTRH, we employ those aspects every day. The result is consistent success for myself and for NFTRH subscribers. See hundreds of unsolicited subscriber testimonials.
Evolution of a Market Manager
I owned and operated a progressive medical device/equipment/component manufacturing company for 21 years, keeping the company’s fundamentals in alignment with global economic realities through various economic cycles. The natural progression from this experience is an understanding of and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors.
My (now defunct) original website was created in 2004 as a way to help communicate a message about deeply rooted problems with irreconcilable levels of debt and leverage within the inflated financial system. My concerns were confirmed and message justified in 2007 as the system began to purge these distortions, resulting in a climactic washout extending from October, 2008 to March, 2009. It was a manifestation of the boom/bust cycles hard wired into a Keynesian monetary/economic system.
Over the long-term, the world changes and any successful market participant should be ready to accept changes or revisions to a given plan or worse, dogma. Centralized monetary management is unsound, but not necessarily bearish for prices. In fact, in between the periodic macro liquidations the system can be quite bullish for ‘prices’, if not ‘value’.
NFTRH Premium was launched right into the teeth of one of these liquidations on September 28, 2008. Anyone can manage a calm market. Not everyone can manage a crash or be ready to deploy capital at a time of max fear. NFTRH has successfully done just that through two major liquidations, a few cyclical bear phases and a whole lot of inflationary bull since 2008.
Geek-like interests in technical analysis and sentiment/psychology, and various unique macro market ratio indicators are part of the successful mix, with the result being a financial market report, Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH), combining these attributes to provide a service that is engaged and successful in all market environments.
-Gary
When not nerding out with obscure indicators and some of the most in-depth market analysis around, I like to do this (Soundcloud just re-started):
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