Why is NFTRH different from a typical newsletter? NFTRH is different from services that follow markets using conventional technical and fundamental analysis because we have found that it is the relationships between different markets and asset classes that provide the most telling clues to pending market direction, often before standard TA catches on, and before evidence shows up in macro fundamentals (each of which we also use). NFTRH is different because its writer has an innate understanding of human psychology and behavior and because he sets out daily to make sure his own set of biases and assumptions are in line before attempting to out think the market. Finally, NFTRH is different because the writer’s career in business has taught him that customer service is of the utmost priority and is ultimately key to long-term success. Unsolicited comments from subscribers from 2008 to the current day show that NFTRH is on track and continually improving.
Can I share NFTRH reports with friends and/or associates? Please email with requests to share the work on infrequent occasion only. We will usually be accommodating. NFTRH reports and in-week updates are not to be redistributed otherwise. As for sharing with associates (for example, people working within your firm), we have added institutional/multi-user options. Please use the contact link above for rates and subscription links.
Is NFTRH a market timing service? In a word, yes. We absolutely do not wish to ride out unfavorable intermediate-term market swings in service to any long-term view. That is because we deplore major capital draw downs. We will often ‘hold the fort’ over short-term periods in order to avoid being shaken out of intermediate trends, but risk management is an ongoing and always important component. So we time the markets, with respect for the risk vs. reward backdrop at all times.
Is NFTRH a stock picking service? No, not in the traditional sense. Equity holdings are shown weekly and trade/investment ideas are presented either in NFTRH weekly reports or by NFTRH+ updates at the site, when the risk vs. reward on a given situation is thought to be good. But NFTRH is more about getting the ‘top down’ macro right than about individual equities. After all, if the market’s swings are managed correctly, stock, and especially sector picking is the relatively easy part. In short, if a pure stock picking service is what you seek, you might wish look elsewhere.
Is NFTRH a trading service? No, if by ‘trading service’ you mean instruction giver, trading coach, or pure chart gazing ‘buy/sell’ caller. We make trades. Some long-term, some short-term and also respect the idea that there are simply times that it is best to be in cash (and safest equivalents). If by ‘trading service’ you mean catching the big swings in the market’s boom/bust cycles, yes, NFTRH is a trading service. By definition of our ‘top down’ macro work we will advise when to be in the market, to what degree and when to be out of the market.
How does NFTRH evaluate its prospective stock holdings of individual companies? Technical analysis is the writer’s core competency when it comes to evaluating equities. We typically do moderate fundamental work (valuation, industry evaluation, debt burden, growth, etc.) on stocks of interest. In addition, NFTRH has close relationships and/or active subscriptions with quality fundamental stock analysts, some of whom reside right in the NFTRH subscriber base. Finally, our macro work allows us to select from a range of ETFs to easily buy a market or theme that is aligned with current ‘top down’ analysis.
Who Should Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who want a dedicated source that is always on the job tracking markets’ intermediate swings and thus the opportunities for alternately growing and preserving capital based on risk vs. reward. These individuals do not expect paint-by-numbers instruction, but rather know what to do with the information provided. NFTRH is for a macro market oriented readership and is not appropriate for a mass audience requiring guru or ‘stock pick’ style analysis. That said, customer service being Thing 1 for NFTRH, questions from subscribers are always welcome.
Who Should Not Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who wish to be told what to do without the need to understand the ‘what?’ and ‘why?’ of what they are doing. There is an educational aspect to the service that many subscribers have come to value. If you just want picks and if you just want to ‘make coin’ with no questions asked, this is not for you. Additionally, if you are looking for a quick hit, take a monthly subscription and immediately cancel (i.e. you decide ahead of time you’re only in it for the short-term) you should not subscribe.
I have heard good things about your Interim Update services. Would you please elaborate? Interim updates have become increasingly valued by subscribers as the NFTRH service has evolved. Based on input from many subscribers, we have come to realize just how valuable these updates are to the overall service, especially during major turning points and/or upheavals in the financial markets. Updates usually take the form of NFTRH+, which are more dynamic updates in-week and in-day. NFTRH+ updates are posted at the website and can be automatically delivered (along with non-premium content) by signing up for email delivery of posts on the right sidebar. On occasion more formal and detailed updates are produced with email notices manually delivered to subscribers.
What other subscription services do you use to supplement your research and analysis? NFTRH maintains premium subscriptions to SentimenTrader.com (sentiment is a key component of successful contrarian market analysis), Stockcharts.com, which includes various charting tools and market sentiment and ‘internals’ indicators and TradingView, which has literally opened up a world of chart charting options with its in-depth global access. We also use services specializing in areas outside of our ‘wheel house’, like cycles and in-depth stock-specific fundamentals, as needed. NFTRH is always on the lookout for new sources to combine with the writer’s abilities, to provide the best possible overall service and continual improvement to NFTRH subscribers. We believe in paying for premium work because there is a lot of free garbage on the internet.
How do you select precious metals stocks? A combination of our own TA and macro work (top down) and associations with a very few trusted fundamental sources (bottom up). This combines with our own extensive experience with the sector to cover the bases we need covered. We also tend to gravitate to safer political locations like the US, Canada and to a lesser degree, Mexico.
Gold? Oh yes. It is the monetary value instrument that everything else revolves around in our opinion. It is home base, an anchor to value. But all too often it is subject to a massive promotion machine that can ruin individual investors. We have always been and remain completely apart from that machine. Gold is about value, not price. There are times to speculate with its miners, but playing the miners is just that, speculation.
Is your focus US-centric or global in nature? The writer is aware that the country he calls home, the U.S., coexists with other economies the world over. The great thing about investing is that it opens up boundaries to the entire world. Our focus is global.
What is the difference between your ‘standard TA’ and the so-called ‘forensic’ indicators? Though one of the writer’s strengths, standard TA is simply select combinations of well-known classic technical analysis disciplines. From there the work expands into ratios between different markets and assets, combines various elements of sentiment, momentum and macro-economic data points to give early warning clues to likely future events. Examples of these indicators could be credit spreads, or the performance of silver vs. gold (a “metallic credit” spread, to quote Bob Hoye). These can give major clues as to macro turns that may be in the offing. Standard TA on the other hand, simply projects probabilities based on nominal charts and certainly has a place in the analysis as well.
The single most important consideration in TA, in your opinion? Trends. Respect them, be alert for changes and prosper by not out-thinking yourself.
How did you first become interested in the financial markets? The writer saw his professionally managed funds declining significantly in a previous cyclical bear market (2000-2002) and was driven to find out what happened and why. In 2002, all accounts were pulled from an adviser and managed personally. Through hard work, a mostly self-taught brand of technical analysis and a natural contrary viewpoint, the gains have been more than satisfactory, annualized at about 35% per year from 2002 through 2010.
Are you an ‘Inflationist’ or a ‘Deflationist’? Keynesian or Gold Bug? We follow the boom/bust cycles so evident since 2000 as the ‘financialized’ economy booms, busts and booms again at the behest of Keynesian monetary policies. At the heart of this the Fed needs deflationary episodes in order to inflate. And you wonder why Alice said “And contrary wise, what is it wouldn’t be, and what it wouldn’t be it would. You see?”
I just subscribed… Now what? Shortly after subscribing (usually within 0-12 hours, depending on global time zones) you will receive a welcome email with the latest issue of NFTRH attached, along with instructions for logging in to the archive and updates at the website. Then you will receive a full issue of NFTRH each Sunday along with interim, in-week email updates for as long as the subscription remains active.
I want to sign up, but I am just not sure if your style is for me and my particular needs. Please monitor the site for an idea of how we operate. NFTRH is more formal and generally much more detailed than the public site in its analysis, but nftrh.com will help you to get familiar with the brand of analysis, which is decidedly unconventional. Or simply give NFTRH a try with a monthly subscription and cancel at any time you wish with no further obligation.
How do I adjust my payment settings with PayPal? Simply log in to your PayPal account, go to your Profile, and click ‘My money’. Update your agreement in the “My preapproved payments” section.
Is the annual subscription option refundable? No! If you have any doubt whatsoever, please try the monthly option, which can be canceled at any time with no further billing. For the record, many monthly subscribers convert to annual after getting in sync with the letter’s style. This can easily be done at any time through PayPal. Situations requiring refunds are rare, but in the event we decide to issue one it will be less PayPal’s original transaction fees per their latest terms update…
In line with industry practice and according to our updated policy, we will not charge a fee to process refunds, but the fees from the original transaction will not be returned.
Are there other payment options besides PayPal? Yes, please see this page for other options.
I no longer wish to keep my subscription, how can I cancel it? If you wish to cancel your monthly or annual subscription, simply do so within your own PayPal account’s ‘active subscriptions’ or send an email using the ‘Contact’ form linked above with a request to cancel and it will be done promptly. You will remain on the email list until the payment period expires. Remember that yearly subscriptions are not refundable and a canceled yearly subscription will remain active until the most recent payment expires.
Can you sum up your philosophy and NFTRH in a simple paragraph? The financial market is bigger than any individual. There are no gurus. To succeed over the long term, a combination of patience, perspective and humility must be combined with a willingness to think out of the box. Now, add in hard work and a philosophy that customer service is job #1 and you have the makings of a world class financial market newsletter service!