NFTRH FAQ:
Why is NFTRH different from a typical newsletter?
NFTRH is different from services that follow markets using conventional technical or fundamental analysis because we have found that it is the relationships between different markets and asset classes that provide the most telling clues to pending market direction, often before standard TA catches on, and before evidence shows up in macro fundamentals (each of which we also use). We use both disciplines and we use them in unique ways.
In short, we consistently look inside the markets by evaluating the trends that our TA fleshes out in inter-market relationships. We also provide standard TA and standard macro-fundamentals analysis.
What is NFTRH different, besides TA and FA?
NFTRH is different because its writer has an innate understanding of human psychology and behavior and because he sets out daily to make sure his own set of biases and assumptions are in line before attempting to out think the market. Finally, NFTRH is different because the writer’s career in business has taught him that customer service is of the utmost priority and is ultimately key to long-term success. Unsolicited testimonials from subscribers from 2008 to the current day show that NFTRH is on track and continually improving.
Can I share NFTRH reports with friends and/or associates?
Please email with requests to share the work on infrequent occasions only. We will usually be accommodating. NFTRH reports and in-week updates are not to be redistributed otherwise. As for sharing with associates (for example, people working within your firm), institutional/multi-user options can be accommodated. Please use the Contact link above for rates and subscription links.
Is NFTRH a market timing service? In a word, yes. We absolutely do not wish to ride out unfavorable intermediate-term market swings in service to any long-term view. That is because we deplore major capital draw downs. We will often ‘hold the fort’ over short-term periods in order to avoid being shaken out of intermediate trends, but risk management is an ongoing and always important component. So we time the markets, with respect for the risk vs. reward backdrop.
Is NFTRH a stock picking service? No, not in the traditional sense. Equity holdings are shown weekly and trade/investment ideas are presented either in NFTRH weekly reports or by NFTRH+ updates at the site, when the risk vs. reward on a given situation is thought to be good. We have “picked” many big winners over the years, but that is not the thrust of NFTRH.
What do you consider most important?
NFTRH is more about getting the ‘top down’ macro right than about individual equities. After all, if the market’s swings are managed correctly, stock, and especially sector picking is the relatively easy part. Our stock picking work is aided by fundamental associates (especially in geology/mining) a premium account at SeekingAlpha (as a SA contributor I have access to a plethora of professional single-stock analyses), my own light fundamental analysis and our final arbiter, Technical Analysis.
How do you decide upon the stock positions in your portfolio included in NFTRH?
I tend to evaluate the charts of fundamentally sound situations (whether growth, value or potential turnarounds), do my own brief fundamental work (including the larger ‘top-down macro’ frame work), and if it is still of interest proceed on to deeper fundamental sources. If all then checks out, we have interest.
Is NFTRH a trading service?
No, if by ‘trading service’ you mean trading coach, or pure chart gazing ‘buy/sell’ caller. We make trades. Some long-term, some short-term and also respect the idea that there are simply times that it is best to be in heavily in cash and safest equivalents, especially when they are paying strong income. NFTRH’s mission is to catch the big swings in the market’s boom/bust cycle. By definition of our ‘top down’ macro work we will advise when (and where) to be in the market, and when to be largely out of the market.
Who Should Subscribe to NFTRH?
Individuals who want a dedicated source that is always on the job tracking markets’ intermediate swings and thus the opportunities for alternately growing and preserving capital based on risk vs. reward. These individuals do not expect paint-by-numbers instruction, but rather know what to do with the information provided. NFTRH is for a macro market oriented readership and is not appropriate for a mass audience requiring guru-like instructions to robots, or pure stock-picking. That said, customer service being Thing 1 for NFTRH, questions from subscribers, including opinions on stocks, are welcome.
Who Should Not Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who wish to be told what to do without the need to understand the ‘what?’ and ‘why?’ of what they are doing. There is an educational aspect to the service that many subscribers have come to value. If you only want picks and if you just want to ‘make coin’ with no questions asked, this is not for you. Additionally, if you are looking for a quick hit, take a monthly subscription and immediately cancel (i.e. you decide ahead of time you’re only in it for the short-term) you should not subscribe.
I have heard good things about your Interim Update services (NFTRH+). Would you please elaborate? NFTRH+ updates have become increasingly valued by subscribers as the NFTRH service has evolved. Based on input from many subscribers, we have come to realize just how valuable these updates are to the overall service, especially during major turning points and/or upheavals in the financial markets. NFTRH+ updates are posted at the website and can be automatically delivered (along with non-premium content) by signing up for email delivery of posts on the right sidebar.
What other subscription services do you use to supplement your research and analysis?
NFTRH maintains premium subscriptions to MacroMicro (premium global macro and sector-specific research), Stockcharts.com, which includes various charting tools and market sentiment and ‘internals’ indicators and TradingView, which has literally opened up a world of charting options with its in-depth global access. In addition, due to my status a contributor at SeekingAlpha, I have full access to its premium research on individual stocks (not having the time or inclination to do deep stock research myself, being a “macro” guy). NFTRH is always on the lookout for new sources to combine with the writer’s abilities, to provide the best possible overall service and continual improvement to NFTRH subscribers. I believe in using premium tools because there is a lot of free garbage on the internet.
How do you select precious metals stocks?
A combination of our own TA and macro work (top down) and associations with a very few trusted fundamental sources (bottom up). This combines with our own extensive experience with the sector’s macro-fundamentals to cover the bases we need covered. We also tend to favor safer political locations like the US and Canada.
Gold?
Oh yes. It is the monetary value instrument that everything else revolves around in our opinion. It is home base, an anchor to value. But all too often it is subject to a promotion machine that can ruin individual investors. We have always been and remain completely apart from that machine. Gold is about value, not price. It is the anti-bubble, not a speculation. There are times to speculate with its miners, but playing the miners should be done only when the macro dictates.
Is your focus US-centric or global in nature?
The writer is aware that the country he calls home, the U.S., coexists with other economies the world over. The great thing about investing is that it opens up boundaries to the entire world. Our focus is global. But our best vision inside the markets is US-centric.
What is the difference between your ‘standard TA’ and the so-called ‘forensic’ indicators?
One of the writer’s strengths, is standard TA, which we have practiced since 1998. From there the work expands into ratios between different markets and assets, combines various elements of sentiment, momentum and macro-economic data points to give early warning clues to likely future events. Unlike pure TA services, our TA is one tool in the tool box. A very handy tool, but one tool nonetheless.
The single most important consideration in TA, in your opinion?
Trends. Respect them, set conditions and be alert for changes and prosper by not out-thinking yourself. Support/resistance levels run a close second.
How did you first become interested in the financial markets?
The writer saw his professionally managed funds declining significantly in a previous cyclical bear market (2000-2002) and was driven to find out what happened and why. In 2002, all accounts were pulled from an adviser and managed personally. Through hard work, a mostly self-taught brand of technical analysis and a natural contrary viewpoint, the gains have been more than satisfactory while the risk management has been ongoing.
Are you an ‘Inflationist’ or a ‘Deflationist’? Keynesian or Gold Bug?
We follow the boom/bust cycles so evident since 2000 as the ‘financialized’ economy booms, busts and booms again at the behest of Keynesian monetary policies. At the heart of this the Fed needs deflationary episodes in order to inflate. And you wonder why Alice said “And contrary wise, what is it wouldn’t be, and what it wouldn’t be it would. You see?”
I just subscribed… Now what?
Shortly after subscribing (usually within 0-12 hours, depending on global time zones) you will receive a welcome email along with instructions for logging in to the archive and updates at the website. Then you will receive NFTRH premium reports each Sunday along with interim NFTRH+ updates during the trading week for as long as your subscription is active.
I want to sign up, but I am just not sure if your style is for me and my particular needs.
Please monitor the site (public posts only, available under the ‘Blog’ menu) for an idea of how we operate. NFTRH is more formal and generally much more detailed than the public site in its analysis, but nftrh.com will help you to get familiar with the brand of analysis and opinion, which are decidedly unconventional. Or simply give NFTRH a try with a monthly subscription and cancel at any time you may wish with no further obligation.
Is the annual subscription option refundable?
No! If you have any doubt whatsoever, please try the monthly option, which can be canceled at any time with no further billing. For the record, many monthly subscribers convert to annual after getting in sync with the letter’s style. This can easily be done at any time through PayPal or Square (credit card processor). Situations requiring refunds are rare, but in the event we decide to issue one it will be less PayPal’s original transaction fees per their latest terms update and prorated as needed.
Payment Options?
Secure credit card ordering through Square, and PayPal. Please see this page for options.
I no longer wish to keep my subscription, how can I cancel it? If you wish to cancel your monthly or annual subscription, simply do so within your own PayPal account’s ‘active subscriptions’, using the original receipt from the credit card processor (Square), or send an email using the ‘Contact’ form linked above with a request to cancel and it will be done promptly. You will remain on the email list until the payment period expires. Remember that yearly subscriptions are not refundable and a canceled yearly subscription will remain active until the most recent payment expires.
Can you sum up your philosophy and NFTRH in a simple paragraph? The financial market is bigger than any individual. There are no gurus. To succeed over the long term, a combination of patience, perspective and humility must be combined with a willingness to think out of the box. Now, add in consistent effort, indicator tools that work, and a philosophy that customer service is job #1 and you have the makings of a world class financial market newsletter service: