“You take the blue pill… the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill… you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.” -Morpheus A ‘blended’ orientation to markets and life… I took a red pill, dropped into a rabbit hole and entered Wonderland in 2003 and lived … Continue reading The purple pill
NFTRH 721 took technical readings of the US stock market, describing the major trends but also a short-term battle for SPX between the daily SMA 50 (resistance) and lateral short-term support. Today SPX is taking out the SMA 50 to the upside after holding support. Parameters, baby. We also added this view on the prospects for a sentiment bounce as well as a logical end … Continue reading Stock market… on cue!
[edit] Well, that didn’t last long. Still, the potential remains in play from a sentiment POV. The stock market looks to open green today If you want to read all about it, you can click the image above. Okay, calm down. It was in the cards, short-term. From NFTRH 721: Sentimentrader’s Smart/Dumb money indicators agree [with a premise that preceded]. Smart money ate the market … Continue reading Stock market: green baby, green! [w/ edit]
Market sentiment is much different today than it was in June Any self respecting sentiment rally would need to flip formerly over-bearish refugees and get them lusting for stocks once again. In looking at the ‘dumb money’ aggregate, that appears to be what is happening now. Back at the June sentiment lows we noted how this and other sentiment indicators were stretched over-bearish nearly … Continue reading ‘Dumb money’ FOMO’ing the rally as expected
After selling SLV, PALL, PPLT, SIL, GDX, BTG and bear fund TZA Yesterday and trimming a couple core gold stock positions the day before… I was sad. These items had all performed well and some performed spectacularly. All that green in the portfolio day after angst ridden day was pleasurable. I was a genius, I tell you! But the non-genius, non-greedy, cold hearted side of … Continue reading Market Psych 101
Ref. yesterday’s post with the oh so pensive trader with a southward pointing chart over his shoulder. Today it is a brighter picture as two calm gentlemen go about their business as usual. Again, you can click the graphic if you want to see CNBC’s breakdown of this morning’s events. I see Cramer is on the right side of the contrarian setup this morning, unless … Continue reading The picture brightens, as if on cue…
Click graphic, get hysterical media news (actually, I have not bothered to read it but judging by this trader’s face… :-))… This guy is a classic and the waterfall stock chart behind him is priceless. Hey folks, do you remember Christmas Eve, 2018? The Christmas Eve massacre? It was a glorious and culminating moment of washed out equity prices amidst hawkish Fed indifference as most … Continue reading Picture = 1000 words
Market sentiment was reset perfectly by Omicron & taper fears Just so you, dear public reader, know, NFTRH was well prepared for the sentiment gymnastics associated with the coming of Omicron (in combo with Fed taper hysterics) and with the oh so not surprising relief from the Omicron dud. Perspective on the sentiment event in play has been provided routinely over the last few weeks. … Continue reading Of course the market is partying today
Repeat after me… “you have to invite the vampire into your house” Dow drops 500 points to session low after Powell mentions speeding up taper even amid omicron threat These cynical bastards are going to make you good and desirous of a continued inflationary operation. They created it, the public – led by the usual suspect trend followers in the media and Twitter influencer brigade … Continue reading This is one cynical inflator…
COVID Variant news on Black Friday Complete with the obligatory picture of a dazed, confused and bemused trader above the media are serving a post-Thanksgiving side dish of COVID Variant; a nasty mutant apparently originating from a single patient in South Africa who incubated (hosted) the thing until it could ‘evolve’. Dow futures drop more than 700 points on fears of new Covid variant found … Continue reading Here comes the news cycle: COVID-Variant style
DVAX defenders gonna defend; but against what? I touched a few nerves with my insulting comment about DVAX as it gets walloped, post-earnings (in which revenue soared but so did cost of revenue, prompting me to take a minor partial profit in AH yesterday due to my concern about said cost ramp). But it’s up to individuals to decide whom I was or was not … Continue reading Ominous signaling for Dynavax (DVAX) at Stocktwits
‘Fear of missing out’ on market gains continues among the usual suspects, with a notable exception On October 14 we noted the environment whereby the FOMOs could utter a collective “ruh roh!”, realize they got played out of the market during the September sentiment squall and then start to chase. Well, newsletter writers had not budged as of the 19th (last Tuesday). Investors Intelligence from … Continue reading FOMOs gonna FOMO
Market set up to go FOMO? Stock market sentiment has been very skittish at best, and flat out bearish at most. Players reacted accordingly. So is this the point of recognition when (AAII from my chart list and NFTRH 676)… …all that scared money (Newsletters tracked by Investors Intelligence from Yardeni and #676)… …issues a collective ‘RUH ROH’ and chases the market to get re-positioned … Continue reading FOMO?
If you want to go through a paywall you can find out why Cramer is not trusting of today’s rally (such as it is). In a week with major systemic contagion hype coming out of China (e.g. Evergrande) and the US Fed officials conspiring to manage our expectations in one form or another, I’d rather keep a bias toward caution for now. But despite a … Continue reading Trust the rebound? Here’s one positive…
