After selling SLV, PALL, PPLT, SIL, GDX, BTG and bear fund TZA Yesterday and trimming a couple core gold stock positions the day before… I was sad. These items had all performed well and some performed spectacularly. All that green in the portfolio day after angst ridden day was pleasurable. I was a genius, I tell you! But the non-genius, non-greedy, cold hearted side of … Continue reading Market Psych 101
Ref. yesterday’s post with the oh so pensive trader with a southward pointing chart over his shoulder. Today it is a brighter picture as two calm gentlemen go about their business as usual. Again, you can click the graphic if you want to see CNBC’s breakdown of this morning’s events. I see Cramer is on the right side of the contrarian setup this morning, unless … Continue reading The picture brightens, as if on cue…
Click graphic, get hysterical media news (actually, I have not bothered to read it but judging by this trader’s face… :-))… This guy is a classic and the waterfall stock chart behind him is priceless. Hey folks, do you remember Christmas Eve, 2018? The Christmas Eve massacre? It was a glorious and culminating moment of washed out equity prices amidst hawkish Fed indifference as most … Continue reading Picture = 1000 words
Market sentiment was reset perfectly by Omicron & taper fears Just so you, dear public reader, know, NFTRH was well prepared for the sentiment gymnastics associated with the coming of Omicron (in combo with Fed taper hysterics) and with the oh so not surprising relief from the Omicron dud. Perspective on the sentiment event in play has been provided routinely over the last few weeks. … Continue reading Of course the market is partying today
Repeat after me… “you have to invite the vampire into your house” Dow drops 500 points to session low after Powell mentions speeding up taper even amid omicron threat These cynical bastards are going to make you good and desirous of a continued inflationary operation. They created it, the public – led by the usual suspect trend followers in the media and Twitter influencer brigade … Continue reading This is one cynical inflator…
COVID Variant news on Black Friday Complete with the obligatory picture of a dazed, confused and bemused trader above the media are serving a post-Thanksgiving side dish of COVID Variant; a nasty mutant apparently originating from a single patient in South Africa who incubated (hosted) the thing until it could ‘evolve’. Dow futures drop more than 700 points on fears of new Covid variant found … Continue reading Here comes the news cycle: COVID-Variant style
DVAX defenders gonna defend; but against what? I touched a few nerves with my insulting comment about DVAX as it gets walloped, post-earnings (in which revenue soared but so did cost of revenue, prompting me to take a minor partial profit in AH yesterday due to my concern about said cost ramp). But it’s up to individuals to decide whom I was or was not … Continue reading Ominous signaling for Dynavax (DVAX) at Stocktwits
‘Fear of missing out’ on market gains continues among the usual suspects, with a notable exception On October 14 we noted the environment whereby the FOMOs could utter a collective “ruh roh!”, realize they got played out of the market during the September sentiment squall and then start to chase. Well, newsletter writers had not budged as of the 19th (last Tuesday). Investors Intelligence from … Continue reading FOMOs gonna FOMO
Market set up to go FOMO? Stock market sentiment has been very skittish at best, and flat out bearish at most. Players reacted accordingly. So is this the point of recognition when (AAII from my chart list and NFTRH 676)… …all that scared money (Newsletters tracked by Investors Intelligence from Yardeni and #676)… …issues a collective ‘RUH ROH’ and chases the market to get re-positioned … Continue reading FOMO?
If you want to go through a paywall you can find out why Cramer is not trusting of today’s rally (such as it is). In a week with major systemic contagion hype coming out of China (e.g. Evergrande) and the US Fed officials conspiring to manage our expectations in one form or another, I’d rather keep a bias toward caution for now. But despite a … Continue reading Trust the rebound? Here’s one positive…
Stock market is at high risk, but… The ‘but’ is the old saying “markets can remain [seemingly] irrational longer than you can remain solvent” if you fight a trend that is intact at any given point. Since March, 2020 that trend has been up. Structurally Over-bullish Below is a chart showing the 10 week exponential moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) that we … Continue reading Stock market risk not yet realized
Volatility expressed, VIXY sold I am not a great bear and I am not necessarily bearish the market. What is going on now is the logical extension of what we anticipated months ago, a summer cool down in inflation expectations. Lately, it has come complete with Fed heads jawboning about inflation with Yellen doing the same in the side car. Long story short, I am … Continue reading Bye Bye Volatility
The anticipated cool-down in previously rising inflation signals is in full effect Preamble This is a post by human Gary, not market analysis provider Gary. It’s a free website with no ads, no nuthin’ that I ask of you. So you are free to either put up with this type of post once in a while or turn me off. Whatever works for you, really. … Continue reading As the summer inflation cool-down continues…
Market has been rotating back to growth from value and reflation-sensitive areas It was all about long-term interest rates and the beginnings of the at least temporary failure of the inflation/reflation trades. Over the last several weeks I’ve been rotating in anticipation (with the biggest rotation being into cash), holding some big Tech and a few growth stocks like ROKU. If you look hard enough … Continue reading Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)
