Oncoming gold stock bull

As the proper macro fundamentals for gold mining grind into place… The real price of gold, as represented on the chart below by gold in relation to commodities, is constructive to have bottomed. As inflation expectations continue to fade with the Fed still in hawk mode this should continue, in order to confirm a bottom. A majority of gold bugs seem to think that gold … Continue reading Oncoming gold stock bull

Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

As we step toward a counter-cyclical macro, the fundamentals will finally improve for gold mining From a June 19th interview I did with with Jordan Roy Byrne with respect to gold stocks, Energy and the proper macro fundamentals for the gold mining sector: In my experience gold stocks will… they can paint ugly charts and then follow through on those ugly charts. But when a … Continue reading Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

The “best of times” for gold (and the miners that leverage it)

The best of times to come for gold (and gold miner) investors, if you’ve survived the worst of them Let’s let Charles Dickens teach us a few things about not only gold investing, but investing in general: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… “ It is now the best of times if you’re a gold bull who has somehow … Continue reading The “best of times” for gold (and the miners that leverage it)

2 Horsemen of the (macro) Apocalypse ride on…

The US dollar and the Gold/Silver ratio are bulling together… And per the Seinfeld bad chicken episode, “that’s not gonna be good for anybody.” Here we see Uncle Buck (DXY) doing what he has been doing since he began diverging the inflation hysteria well over a year ago. And his fellow rider doing similar. For anyone new to this, the ratio of gold to silver … Continue reading 2 Horsemen of the (macro) Apocalypse ride on…

Stock market assigns more power to the Fed than gold bugs do

The stock market is very predictable in its Fed obsession A frustration of dyed in the wool gold bugs is that a debt soaked system moves forward on little more than the confidence that all will remain as it has been. This confidence focuses on the Federal Reserve and it’s ability to inflate the system when needed. But the flip side of that ‘in the … Continue reading Stock market assigns more power to the Fed than gold bugs do

Gold is about value; the miners are a speculation upon ‘value’

Gold and gold miners have two completely different utilities Gold is… A pretty rock that is dug out of the ground. This heavy rock has been assigned value by humans since time immemorial. That value has been its stability as an asset, a refuge from the excesses of rampant speculation, the likes of which often visit stocks (e.g. climaxes in 2000, 2007 and 2022) and … Continue reading Gold is about value; the miners are a speculation upon ‘value’

Post-FOMC contrarian window open

The time is now for the broad market rally to gain a following It’s a bear market. The trends make that assertion, not me. But as noted in an NFTRH update on July 28th… FOMC came. FOMC laid a .75% egg. FOMC rode off into the sunset until September. Meanwhile, signs of global economic contraction continue to crop up as the Fed fights the last … Continue reading Post-FOMC contrarian window open

30yr on the way to 2.5%?

It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile market, we have nailed the interest rate backdrop that the now hawking Fed has been whipsawed by and is trying to catch up to. But over educated eggheads will be over educated eggheads, and as … Continue reading 30yr on the way to 2.5%?

Gold Bug survivors prepare to capitalize

It has been a classic washout in the gold stock sector, but if positioned correctly opportunity is setting up The ‘macro’ and sector fundamentals have been incomplete (details beyond the scope of this article, but they are not the easy, low hanging fruit that many in the ‘gold adviser’ herd focus on). The technicals have advised a downtrend since mid-2020 with the exception of one … Continue reading Gold Bug survivors prepare to capitalize

A guy talks about gold/miners macro fundamentals

Do not be these two things simultaneously; cyclical inflationist and fundamental gold mining bull Whereby I turn my word salad loose upon the world. After an opening with too many ‘ah’ and ‘you know’ moments, the salad seems to kick in well over the second half of the interview and the points made sounded clear enough. Thanks to Jordan (Daily Gold), who does not try … Continue reading A guy talks about gold/miners macro fundamentals

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Gold/Gold miners fundamental checkup

As they leverage the macro, what’s good for gold is even better for gold miners After last week’s article, in which we noted a unique move on ‘CPI Friday’ as gold and the miners put in an expected test of the lows and quickly reversed upward, unique among a world full of bearish markets… A pivotal juncture for gold and gold stocks …let’s take a … Continue reading Gold/Gold miners fundamental checkup

The Inflation Mutation

This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day. After … Continue reading The Inflation Mutation

A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path

As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish. Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706: We then covered the technically bearish state of the … Continue reading A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path

US & Global stocks, bonds, USD, precious metals & commodities

A general update of a macro in transition Detailed work, which got us to this point intact, if a little frustrated*, is done in NFTRH reports and updates. But it’s always handy to have a general summary view of macro markets. So let’s get to it. * Reference this post done while sitting with a flight delay at JFK managing the breakout in the Gold/Silver … Continue reading US & Global stocks, bonds, USD, precious metals & commodities