As inflation signals fade, the gold mining sector outperforms

The gold mining sector is doing what it should do amid fading inflation If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022). Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not … Continue reading As inflation signals fade, the gold mining sector outperforms

'real' 10 year Treasury yield

NFTRH 732 excerpt on Bonds & Gold

NFTRH 732 excerpt discusses bonds and bond market indicators with respect to the gold price US Bond Market For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was … Continue reading NFTRH 732 excerpt on Bonds & Gold

As inflation eases, the macro grinds in favor of the gold mining sector

The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this … Continue reading As inflation eases, the macro grinds in favor of the gold mining sector

The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as … Continue reading The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

“Post-bubble contraction”

“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble … Continue reading “Post-bubble contraction”

The gold stock road map

It’s a long and volatile road for the gold miners A daily chart snapshot of the current technical situation for the HUI Gold Bugs index shows a small Head & Shoulders pattern that formed in July-August as noted in this August 28th NFTRH premium update (now public) before it broke down. So we have Huey holding the neckline of an ugly little pattern today. What … Continue reading The gold stock road map

Oncoming gold stock bull

As the proper macro fundamentals for gold mining grind into place… The real price of gold, as represented on the chart below by gold in relation to commodities, is constructive to have bottomed. As inflation expectations continue to fade with the Fed still in hawk mode this should continue, in order to confirm a bottom. A majority of gold bugs seem to think that gold … Continue reading Oncoming gold stock bull

Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

As we step toward a counter-cyclical macro, the fundamentals will finally improve for gold mining From a June 19th interview I did with with Jordan Roy Byrne with respect to gold stocks, Energy and the proper macro fundamentals for the gold mining sector: In my experience gold stocks will… they can paint ugly charts and then follow through on those ugly charts. But when a … Continue reading Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

The “best of times” for gold (and the miners that leverage it)

The best of times to come for gold (and gold miner) investors, if you’ve survived the worst of them Let’s let Charles Dickens teach us a few things about not only gold investing, but investing in general: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… “ It is now the best of times if you’re a gold bull who has somehow … Continue reading The “best of times” for gold (and the miners that leverage it)

2 Horsemen of the (macro) Apocalypse ride on…

The US dollar and the Gold/Silver ratio are bulling together… And per the Seinfeld bad chicken episode, “that’s not gonna be good for anybody.” Here we see Uncle Buck (DXY) doing what he has been doing since he began diverging the inflation hysteria well over a year ago. And his fellow rider doing similar. For anyone new to this, the ratio of gold to silver … Continue reading 2 Horsemen of the (macro) Apocalypse ride on…

Stock market assigns more power to the Fed than gold bugs do

The stock market is very predictable in its Fed obsession A frustration of dyed in the wool gold bugs is that a debt soaked system moves forward on little more than the confidence that all will remain as it has been. This confidence focuses on the Federal Reserve and it’s ability to inflate the system when needed. But the flip side of that ‘in the … Continue reading Stock market assigns more power to the Fed than gold bugs do

Gold is about value; the miners are a speculation upon ‘value’

Gold and gold miners have two completely different utilities Gold is… A pretty rock that is dug out of the ground. This heavy rock has been assigned value by humans since time immemorial. That value has been its stability as an asset, a refuge from the excesses of rampant speculation, the likes of which often visit stocks (e.g. climaxes in 2000, 2007 and 2022) and … Continue reading Gold is about value; the miners are a speculation upon ‘value’

Post-FOMC contrarian window open

The time is now for the broad market rally to gain a following It’s a bear market. The trends make that assertion, not me. But as noted in an NFTRH update on July 28th… FOMC came. FOMC laid a .75% egg. FOMC rode off into the sunset until September. Meanwhile, signs of global economic contraction continue to crop up as the Fed fights the last … Continue reading Post-FOMC contrarian window open