2022: Still “the golden year”

Gold is following a logical path in 2022 Reference this article posted on 12.30.21: 2022: The Golden Year Gold has done nothing unusual and in fact it has done as would normally be expected. In February it began to rally out of the base on the daily (futures) chart below. Driven by war (easy on the war, terror and pestilence bull rationales dear gold bugs) … Continue reading 2022: Still “the golden year”

The Yield Curve flattener and a coming transition

As the Yield Curve flattens, this inflation is different from the 2020 inflation In 2020 an inflationary yield curve steepener was in the bag as the Fed dropped and pinned the Funds Rate and sucked up every bond it could get its hands on (in order to monetize/print). The bond market made the logical signals about the resulting inflation as the short end was pinned … Continue reading The Yield Curve flattener and a coming transition

Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead [w/ edit]

Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble? [edit] With a note that another, less viable option is possible as well. That would be a ‘just right’ Goldilocks gently disinflationary option similar to the 2012-2019 phase. [edit2] A subsequent post notes another reason the Fed may be erring dovish, as the Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields (30yr has ticked the underside … Continue reading Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead [w/ edit]

Gold’s next bull leg in progress; but a test is due for the metal & miners

“2022: The Golden Year” activates… …as gold and the miners hit our short-term upside targets this week. In August of 2020 we noted the danger signals for gold based on sentiment excess coming out of the acute pandemic fear phase. We also noted the need for a multi-year bullish Cup to build a proper handle after that excess. A Cup’s handle is actually a downward … Continue reading Gold’s next bull leg in progress; but a test is due for the metal & miners

A gold-centric macro view

As the gold “community” rationalizes gold’s currently low standing… As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold). In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, … Continue reading A gold-centric macro view

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Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

Gold vs. Inflation Expectations

Gold vs. Inflation Expectations; a low being made? A weird ratio chart here. Gold (GLD) vs. expectations about the thing that too many gold bugs believe should be the prime utility for gold (inflation protection). If it were to turn up da macro gonna change. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly … Continue reading Gold vs. Inflation Expectations

Gold; a stellar picture

Gold’s ‘real’ price indicates a fine ‘risk vs. reward’ [edit] Since this article will be distributed to a wider viewership than nftrh.com, where regular readers know I take pains not to hype this most precious ‘value’ asset, take note that a positive risk vs. reward does not mean run out and go whole hog gold stock bull right this minute. Risk vs. reward is a … Continue reading Gold; a stellar picture

The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

The Zombie Ship of Theseus

Keith Weiner with a stroll down monetary Memory Lane, to and through Bitcoin Leave it to Keith to get way outside the box when viewing money, (funny) munny, gold and Bitcoin. “The Ship of Theseus is an old philosophical thought experiment. It asks a question about identity. Suppose you replace all of the boards of a ship with new ones—is it still the same ship? … Continue reading The Zombie Ship of Theseus