Gold is following a logical path in 2022 Reference this article posted on 12.30.21: 2022: The Golden Year Gold has done nothing unusual and in fact it has done as would normally be expected. In February it began to rally out of the base on the daily (futures) chart below. Driven by war (easy on the war, terror and pestilence bull rationales dear gold bugs) … Continue reading 2022: Still “the golden year”
It’s funny. I was shooting the shit with Jordan for about an hour before the interview started and I was Gary. We talked about Boston sports. I found out Jordan is a huge sports fan and his mom is from my area. And by extension, that he’s American (I always thought he was Canadian). We talked about a few other OT things and a lot … Continue reading Mr. Robot talks gold (and silver)
As the Yield Curve flattens, this inflation is different from the 2020 inflation In 2020 an inflationary yield curve steepener was in the bag as the Fed dropped and pinned the Funds Rate and sucked up every bond it could get its hands on (in order to monetize/print). The bond market made the logical signals about the resulting inflation as the short end was pinned … Continue reading The Yield Curve flattener and a coming transition
Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble?  With a note that another, less viable option is possible as well. That would be a ‘just right’ Goldilocks gently disinflationary option similar to the 2012-2019 phase. [edit2] A subsequent post notes another reason the Fed may be erring dovish, as the Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields (30yr has ticked the underside … Continue reading Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead [w/ edit]
I have a pal named Scott. He has been a gold fund manager until the current time, as now he is closing the fund and just going to be a regular player, like myself. He was the one who originally guided me to the compelling story of Great Bear Resources (GBR.V) as a high conviction investment (now sold at a big profit as I don’t … Continue reading Comments enabled, thoughts on a Podcast?
“2022: The Golden Year” activates… …as gold and the miners hit our short-term upside targets this week. In August of 2020 we noted the danger signals for gold based on sentiment excess coming out of the acute pandemic fear phase. We also noted the need for a multi-year bullish Cup to build a proper handle after that excess. A Cup’s handle is actually a downward … Continue reading Gold’s next bull leg in progress; but a test is due for the metal & miners
As the gold “community” rationalizes gold’s currently low standing… As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold). In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, … Continue reading A gold-centric macro view
A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?
When gold could rise during inflation You know, I rag on inflationist gold bugs a lot. And it’s with good reason. They are usually wrong. It’s not as simple as “inflation is going to eat away at your purchasing power, buy gold!” It’s when inflation is starting to eat you up and is no longer viewed as ‘good’, the way it was on balance coming … Continue reading Gold and inflation
Gold vs. Inflation Expectations; a low being made? A weird ratio chart here. Gold (GLD) vs. expectations about the thing that too many gold bugs believe should be the prime utility for gold (inflation protection). If it were to turn up da macro gonna change. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly … Continue reading Gold vs. Inflation Expectations
Gold’s ‘real’ price indicates a fine ‘risk vs. reward’  Since this article will be distributed to a wider viewership than nftrh.com, where regular readers know I take pains not to hype this most precious ‘value’ asset, take note that a positive risk vs. reward does not mean run out and go whole hog gold stock bull right this minute. Risk vs. reward is a … Continue reading Gold; a stellar picture
A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history  Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]
Keith Weiner with a stroll down monetary Memory Lane, to and through Bitcoin Leave it to Keith to get way outside the box when viewing money, (funny) munny, gold and Bitcoin. “The Ship of Theseus is an old philosophical thought experiment. It asks a question about identity. Suppose you replace all of the boards of a ship with new ones—is it still the same ship? … Continue reading The Zombie Ship of Theseus
The NFTRH big picture view for gold has been bullish since calling a top in mid-2020 Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 … Continue reading 2022: The Golden Year