2 bright spots

As the markets react to lagging data, a couple of personal bright spots My brain look tends to look forward but the market’s brain all too often seems to be looking back. Think about all the predictable news-chasing the machines have consistently done in 2022. There may be individual strategists approaching this market with intelligence, but who (and what) ever make up the balance of … Continue reading 2 bright spots

zoom video stock

What about Goldilocks? These stocks are in bottoming postures

With all the talk of commodities lately, let’s not forget Growth/Tech The inflation trades were due for an oversold bounce (at least). But before I started buying back some commodity related stuff and in line with the drop in inflation expectations and hence, yields, I added some Goldilocks items (Tech/Growth) and others that tend to do better when yields are easing (e.g. Biotech). Here are … Continue reading What about Goldilocks? These stocks are in bottoming postures

‘Anti’ markets

These daily charts are flipped over to a view that is ‘anti’ their normal selves I have often referred to the improbably bullish (to many; NFTRH has tracked and respected the bullish dollar for a year now) US dollar as an anti-market, the liquidity collector from the global liquidity-driven and speculative mess created by the Fed and its fellows. But here is a look at … Continue reading ‘Anti’ markets

Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets

Gold vs. risk ‘on’, cyclical items For you sports fans keeping track at home, here is the current view of gold vs. the (much) more cyclical stuff using GLD and various ETFs representing the other markets. It’s a daily chart and you can see gold’s intermediate trend by the SMA 50. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH … Continue reading Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets


Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

Beyond Gold Buggery; Sectors Reviewed

A brief sector review While I hold a special place (in my thoughts and in NFTRH) for the gold stock sector due to its counter-cyclical nature, it’s a big market out there and a strategic view of the macro helps with successful positioning. Following is a snapshot of some sectors/markets with general thoughts on each. I will provide one chart or graphic for each but … Continue reading Beyond Gold Buggery; Sectors Reviewed


NFTRH 679’s page 1 screenshot noted there might be a buy the (tapering) news situation, and here it is. Among some strange bedfellows at least, with Tech, broad SPY and Semis along with gold stocks liking it and commodities and USD not so much. At least according to this in-day episode of Machines Gone Wild. Tune in tomorrow for another episode and we’ll see where … Continue reading FOMO

Cathie Wood conjures ghosts of yore

Cathie Wood calls for a drop in oil prices And well, at least she’s got the seasonal average on her side. Ugh, if the seasonal stays true to its 30 year average, the decline begins almost literally today. Ah, but all due caveats about the inaccuracies of seasonal averages in any given year. From Sentimentrader:   But back to Ms. Wood. Maybe it has to … Continue reading Cathie Wood conjures ghosts of yore

A Crispy profit (fully baked)

CRSP provides a profit at anticipated resistance Why again does it pay to not be a one-way gold bug? Why again does it pay to watch and respect macro signals (structural, longer-term and interim)? Because it’s the market and it pays to follow its actual signals as opposed to its fantasized or imagined ones. From this morning’s NFTRH Trade Log: “Taking my 28% on CRSP, … Continue reading A Crispy profit (fully baked)

Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)

Market has been rotating back to growth from value and reflation-sensitive areas It was all about long-term interest rates and the beginnings of the at least temporary failure of the inflation/reflation trades. Over the last several weeks I’ve been rotating in anticipation (with the biggest rotation being into cash), holding some big Tech and a few growth stocks like ROKU. If you look hard enough … Continue reading Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)