As the markets react to lagging data, a couple of personal bright spots My brain look tends to look forward but the market’s brain all too often seems to be looking back. Think about all the predictable news-chasing the machines have consistently done in 2022. There may be individual strategists approaching this market with intelligence, but who (and what) ever make up the balance of … Continue reading 2 bright spots
With all the talk of commodities lately, let’s not forget Growth/Tech The inflation trades were due for an oversold bounce (at least). But before I started buying back some commodity related stuff and in line with the drop in inflation expectations and hence, yields, I added some Goldilocks items (Tech/Growth) and others that tend to do better when yields are easing (e.g. Biotech). Here are … Continue reading What about Goldilocks? These stocks are in bottoming postures
These daily charts are flipped over to a view that is ‘anti’ their normal selves I have often referred to the improbably bullish (to many; NFTRH has tracked and respected the bullish dollar for a year now) US dollar as an anti-market, the liquidity collector from the global liquidity-driven and speculative mess created by the Fed and its fellows. But here is a look at … Continue reading ‘Anti’ markets
From a previous post about the media’s obsession with declaring a bear market after a 20% drop: As you can see, barring a miracle reversal (is 2:00 Charlie still a thing?) this week will have been a damaging one as the support level SPX hammered from last week is being lost this week. Well, he came at 3:12. Close enough for government work. I actually … Continue reading Ladies & Gentlemen, meet 3:12 Charlie
Gold vs. risk ‘on’, cyclical items For you sports fans keeping track at home, here is the current view of gold vs. the (much) more cyclical stuff using GLD and various ETFs representing the other markets. It’s a daily chart and you can see gold’s intermediate trend by the SMA 50. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH … Continue reading Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets
A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?
Cathy Wood’s ARKK fund gets a seasonal rotation (for a day or more) With the caveat that not all of my tax loss specs are working yet (cough, cough… Cannabis MSOs… cough, cough) three of my tax loss seasonal specs, CRSP, TDOC and ZM are zooming today. They are all part of Cathy Wood’s ARKK fund, which has been murdered in 2021. I have seen … Continue reading Market sports Wood today
This is a market in which I do not trust my charts of individual stocks nearly as much as I trust the macro, ratio and indicator charts. And because those are giving mixed signals each week and have not conclusively triggered a viewpoint, I am not ready to fly by them either. But with the macro indecision (Copper/Gold as but one example) and the Fed … Continue reading Do you know what kind of market this is?
A brief sector review While I hold a special place (in my thoughts and in NFTRH) for the gold stock sector due to its counter-cyclical nature, it’s a big market out there and a strategic view of the macro helps with successful positioning. Following is a snapshot of some sectors/markets with general thoughts on each. I will provide one chart or graphic for each but … Continue reading Beyond Gold Buggery; Sectors Reviewed
NFTRH 679’s page 1 screenshot noted there might be a buy the (tapering) news situation, and here it is. Among some strange bedfellows at least, with Tech, broad SPY and Semis along with gold stocks liking it and commodities and USD not so much. At least according to this in-day episode of Machines Gone Wild. Tune in tomorrow for another episode and we’ll see where … Continue reading FOMO
Cathie Wood calls for a drop in oil prices And well, at least she’s got the seasonal average on her side. Ugh, if the seasonal stays true to its 30 year average, the decline begins almost literally today. Ah, but all due caveats about the inaccuracies of seasonal averages in any given year. From Sentimentrader: But back to Ms. Wood. Maybe it has to … Continue reading Cathie Wood conjures ghosts of yore
[edit] It started like a house afire, but then I faded about half way through. I’ll leave it posted because I like their NY accents, ha ha ha. Josh Brown and Michael Batnick. Must listen… everything from the economy to corrupt Fed officials and Congress members. I am listening now and thoroughly enjoying. Continue reading Uh oh, the economy is topping [w/ edit]
CRSP provides a profit at anticipated resistance Why again does it pay to not be a one-way gold bug? Why again does it pay to watch and respect macro signals (structural, longer-term and interim)? Because it’s the market and it pays to follow its actual signals as opposed to its fantasized or imagined ones. From this morning’s NFTRH Trade Log: “Taking my 28% on CRSP, … Continue reading A Crispy profit (fully baked)
Market has been rotating back to growth from value and reflation-sensitive areas It was all about long-term interest rates and the beginnings of the at least temporary failure of the inflation/reflation trades. Over the last several weeks I’ve been rotating in anticipation (with the biggest rotation being into cash), holding some big Tech and a few growth stocks like ROKU. If you look hard enough … Continue reading Rotation to Growth & Tech as illustrated by ROKU (w/ NFTRH 660 excerpt)
