Commodities and inflation expectations have/had been rising right along with the long bond’s yield But some of the 30 year Treasury yield’s fellows are dropping off, just as the hawking Fed wants (needs). CRB index is still on trend, Oil has a chance to crack here, Industrial Metals (headlined by Doctor Copper) have long since broken down and the Ags are creeping a rally up … Continue reading The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers
What is happening to gold lately and today is heartening It’s been my favored scenario for becoming a gold stock bull. It goes like this… Inflation touts go over the top, include gold bug inflationists touting silver, copper, hogs, oil… gold! The Fed is not listening to anyone humping deflation. It is listening to the bond market and dead set on destruction… Inflationists are being … Continue reading Gold bugs, be not saddened
Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play before they leave it high and dry. But here is the CRB tracker DBC doing something pretty notable, don’t you think? Even as DBC has out-performed the broad SPX since July (lower panel) its nominal … Continue reading Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200
Commodities get a second wind As illustrated in an earlier post, commodities and inflation trades in general are getting relief right in line with recovering indicators like the Copper/Gold ratio. Makes sense for now. As for later, be prepared is all. Today Thing 1 (commodities) are doing as implied by Thing 2 (30yr Treasury yield). Base metals are bouncing, Energy is ripping again and the … Continue reading Inflation Trade Echo
Global shipping prices are dropping while commodities and inflation expectations remain aloft When viewed in the context of history, it’s not something that makes sense right now. Global shipping costs – with commodities like crude oil a major component of the shipped product – are dropping, which implies demand has dropped. Yet commodities and inflation expectations really have not caught on yet, other than a … Continue reading As global shipping costs plunge
The copper price is tanking, and not just nominally As the upcoming FOMC is forced by market signals to keep its hawk suit on (as of today 54% of CME traders now expect a 1% rate hike with the remaining 46% in the .75% camp), global financial markets are bending to the pressure of Fed policy. The daily chart of copper futures is eyeballing the … Continue reading Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets
Metals Commitments of Traders are contrary bullish The gold price chart is looking bad technically. But the gold CoT alignment, especially where the little guy (blue) is concerned, is contrary bullish, or at least constructive. Charts from CotBase. Silver CoT is in great shape, while the silver price chart err… isn’t. There are long-term support levels (not shown on this chart) we are using, however, … Continue reading Bullish CoT data on precious and non-precious metals alike
Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the … Continue reading Commodities: Bounce or something more?
The commodity tracker is pulling back hard to the daily SMA 200 It’s probably going lower, to or through the SMA 200, but the position was taken in a small ‘trading’ account and so I put aside my greed and take a nice profit after shorting just below the SMA 50 as it failed to climb above it in June. Not coincidentally, inflation expectations are … Continue reading DBC short position covered
DBC is tanking and looking for a date with the SMA 200 “Commodity super cycle!” “Hyperinflation!” “Protect yourself! Buy gold, gold stocks, silver, oil and [gulp] copper!” “Fed has lost control; own real things!” Heavily followed Twitter influencer/gold stock bull seen just in the last 24 hours cheerleading oil. Some of these dense handles are just never going to get it, I think because they … Continue reading Commodities… perfect
These daily charts are flipped over to a view that is ‘anti’ their normal selves I have often referred to the improbably bullish (to many; NFTRH has tracked and respected the bullish dollar for a year now) US dollar as an anti-market, the liquidity collector from the global liquidity-driven and speculative mess created by the Fed and its fellows. But here is a look at … Continue reading ‘Anti’ markets
It’s an oversold bounce for the copper price, the Copper/Gold ratio and likely other commodities The daily copper price (futures) is showing a logical bounce from a small support shelf and a deeply oversold condition (RSI). The Copper/Gold ratio, one of our primary economic signalers, is showing the same. Of course, anything can happen. But on the face of it this chart advises the potential … Continue reading Doctor Copper: Oversold bounce
Natural Gas futures down nearly 18% in one day The heading above tells why. I am just not wired for this kind of volatility. This could well be a buy opportunity at a higher low, however. That is the kind of thing I could buy in a wild commodity like Gas. A buy as close as possible to 6.50 and a tight stop below that … Continue reading Why I left NatGas alone
From NFTRH 708’s Commodities segment… Gas on the other hand, while bullish, has a chart that is more suspect. There is a negative RSI divergence and a bad looking MACD. Okay, now watch it blast upward 10% tomorrow. ;-) Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you NatGas futures at +9.23% today. Ha ha ha… For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe … Continue reading A little gaseous humor compliments of NFTRH 708
