One commodity bucking the trends: Soybeans

Soybean futures took out resistance amid a positive seasonal profile From the NFTRH trade log on December 23. The combination of positive seasonal conditions for Soybeans and the constructive daily chart were noted several weeks earlier in NFTRH before I finally added it as a spec. Here is the daily chart of Soybean futures. Since the trade log note above it has taken out resistance, … Continue reading One commodity bucking the trends: Soybeans

Commodity prices

Live commodity prices and nice charts for reference

Trading Economics is apparently much more than an economics stats aggregator I was looking for a good measure of the Lithium price, as I don’t trust the chart of Li futures available at TradingView (it seems dead in the water). I actually found a useful (and time frame adjustable) Lithium chart and so much more at a website I’ve had linked for years, TradingEconomics. You … Continue reading Live commodity prices and nice charts for reference

natural gas futures price

Natural Gas Futures… U.G.L.Y.

Natural Gas Futures are down nearly 8% this morning NFTRH 734 had this to say about Natural Gas, along with a chart that showed critical support that is giving way this morning: Natural Gas had better hold here or it’s probably cooked. I don’t know that another buy at 5.50 would work out so well. Also, the seasonal is negative now for Gas. This chart … Continue reading Natural Gas Futures… U.G.L.Y.

Nutrien (NTR): Trouble in Ag land?

Nutrien (NTR) earnings show another ‘inflation trade’ biting the dust Fertilizer company Nutrien (NTR) earnings were hit by continued demand destruction in agricultural commodities and Nutrien stock is getting hammered. It, along with Mosaic (MOS) is a watch list item of mine. Glad all I did was watch. This all but ends the daily chart uptrend it had been struggling to hold until today. This … Continue reading Nutrien (NTR): Trouble in Ag land?

Commodities not buying it

Commodity tracker DBC remains vulnerable And I remain short. As the stock market bounces and some outlier commodity segments also bounce, here is a conspicuous non-participant, as the “last inflated man standing”, Energy commodities, get hit along with the Agriculturals and Industrial metals. As for my short (the only one I hold currently) I don’t want to see another pop above the moving averages. Right … Continue reading Commodities not buying it

CRB index: almost too perfect

The CRB index tentatively turned down where it should have I am short commodities (DBC) as my only current short position. Hence, I have an interest in this oh so logical pullback from the 200 day moving average. It’s why I was irked when OPEC manip’d the oil market recently. Oil being a CRB driver and all. I am currently sporting a manageable paper loss … Continue reading CRB index: almost too perfect

The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers

Commodities and inflation expectations have/had been rising right along with the long bond’s yield But some of the 30 year Treasury yield’s fellows are dropping off, just as the hawking Fed wants (needs). CRB index is still on trend, Oil has a chance to crack here, Industrial Metals (headlined by Doctor Copper) have long since broken down and the Ags are creeping a rally up … Continue reading The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers

Gold bugs, be not saddened

What is happening to gold lately and today is heartening It’s been my favored scenario for becoming a gold stock bull. It goes like this… Inflation touts go over the top, include gold bug inflationists touting silver, copper, hogs, oil… gold! The Fed is not listening to anyone humping deflation. It is listening to the bond market and dead set on destruction… Inflationists are being … Continue reading Gold bugs, be not saddened

Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play before they leave it high and dry. But here is the CRB tracker DBC doing something pretty notable, don’t you think? Even as DBC has out-performed the broad SPX since July (lower panel) its nominal … Continue reading Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

Inflation Trade Echo

Commodities get a second wind As illustrated in an earlier post, commodities and inflation trades in general are getting relief right in line with recovering indicators like the Copper/Gold ratio. Makes sense for now. As for later, be prepared is all. Today Thing 1 (commodities) are doing as implied by Thing 2 (30yr Treasury yield). Base metals are bouncing, Energy is ripping again and the … Continue reading Inflation Trade Echo

As global shipping costs plunge

Global shipping prices are dropping while commodities and inflation expectations remain aloft When viewed in the context of history, it’s not something that makes sense right  now. Global shipping costs – with commodities like crude oil a major component of the shipped product – are dropping, which implies demand has dropped. Yet commodities and inflation expectations really have not caught on yet, other than a … Continue reading As global shipping costs plunge

copper price (futures)

Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets

The copper price is tanking, and not just nominally As the upcoming FOMC is forced by market signals to keep its hawk suit on (as of today 54% of CME traders now expect a 1% rate hike with the remaining 46% in the .75% camp), global financial markets are bending to the pressure of Fed policy. The daily chart of copper futures is eyeballing the … Continue reading Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets

palladium cot

Bullish CoT data on precious and non-precious metals alike

Metals Commitments of Traders are contrary bullish The gold price chart is looking bad technically. But the gold CoT alignment, especially where the little guy (blue) is concerned, is contrary bullish, or at least constructive. Charts from CotBase. Silver CoT is in great shape, while the silver price chart err… isn’t. There are long-term support levels (not shown on this chart) we are using, however, … Continue reading Bullish CoT data on precious and non-precious metals alike

agricultural index

Commodities: Bounce or something more?

Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the … Continue reading Commodities: Bounce or something more?