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Macro shifts in favor of commodity related stocks

This is not Grandpa’s macro, and these are not Grandpa’s commodities. The traditional commodity complex has shifted to more critical status, amplified by progressing technology, and it probably goes without saying, global trade tensions/wars.

Phase 2; Gold’s Handoff to the Wider Commodity Spectrum

We are in the next phase, whereby gold led (as usual) all markets in H1, 2025, silver then took over from gold (Silver/Gold ratio exploded upward) and the positive market effects spread to commodities, and in our particular area of interest, critical or strategic commodities (like Cu, Ni, Li, REE, u3o8, etc.).

The above happened in 2025, but 2026 is revealing something similar, but more intense. At the time of this writing, May 13th pre-market (US), the Silver/Gold ratio is well past the breakout point (that we projected ahead of time and managed in real time, in NFTRH), the ratio is steaming northward. As long as that is the case, a tailwind is in play for the wider commodity spectrum (with oil/energy being a war-related wildcard).

As noted above, my particular interests are in the Critical Minerals areas, with a secondary interest in Natural Gas as it, like Uranium and a few other commodities, is relevant to the AI data-center buildout.

AI’s Picks & Shovels

Speaking of which, yesterday I wrote an article in part discussing Semiconductor stocks. Particularly, those that have exploded near-vertically in “me too!” fashion to earlier movers like NVDA. Well, I have recently relieved myself of long positions in NVDA and MRVL, and now “me too!’s” QCOM and SYNA as well (not to mention, shorted the bubble in INTC for a quick profit on yesterday’s pullback).

These and other AI-relevant Semiconductor stocks can be considered picks & shovels of AI hyperscalers and other users of the technology. Chips – increasingly specialty chips – pretty much run everything today and you don’t need me to list all the industries with which the Semi industry is now intimately interwoven.

But again, the play has almost literally gone vertical, and judging by the recent volume in the Semi ETF, SMH, it could be building toward an at least temporary crescendo, a climax. Whatever it is, I thank the industry for recent profit-making, but keeping greed in check, it’s time to move on now, speaking personally.

Picks & Shovels (literally)

In NFTRH we have been managing the market’s internals and likely rotations all along. While subscribers are encouraged to use the service as a reference guide only, I am personally done (for now) with the sexy stuff. Circling back to gold’s first-mover status and the takeover of the Silver/Gold ratio, the indications are favorable for the dirty stuff. The companies exploring for and digging critical minerals out of the ground.

Leaving aside war torn regions that will need rebuilding (and traditional commodities, including non-technology related materials) and the aforementioned AI data-center buildout, items like Uranium, Nickel and Lithium will be vital to alternative energy/EV growth (and if this war and its effects on oil do not put a focus on that, I’m not sure anything will). REE is at the heart of many modern technologies. Copper cross-dresses as a critical and a traditional commodity.

Silver? Yes, that too. But you don’t need me to hype you up on silver. There’s enough of that all over the internet. But >>>

Bottom Line

While gold should be stable to bullish going forward, the investment view is spreading through silver on to a wider spectrum of commodities and resources. Especially those critical to modern technologies.

This is a potentially more intense version of the same leadership chain (Gold > Silver > Commodities) we’ve seen in the 2003, 2016, 2020 and 2025 time frames.

It will be a rocky and volatile ride. And so, as with the Semi sector, profit-taking is always a consideration. But a long-term and ongoing sense of the market’s internal shifts of balance and direction will prove very helpful. In fact, it already has proven helpful for myself and for NFTRH subscribers. Over the last year, and over longer periods of time.

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