The copper price is tanking, and not just nominally As the upcoming FOMC is forced by market signals to keep its hawk suit on (as of today 54% of CME traders now expect a 1% rate hike with the remaining 46% in the .75% camp), global financial markets are bending to the pressure of Fed policy. The daily chart of copper futures is eyeballing the … Continue reading Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets
Metals Commitments of Traders are contrary bullish The gold price chart is looking bad technically. But the gold CoT alignment, especially where the little guy (blue) is concerned, is contrary bullish, or at least constructive. Charts from CotBase. Silver CoT is in great shape, while the silver price chart err… isn’t. There are long-term support levels (not shown on this chart) we are using, however, … Continue reading Bullish CoT data on precious and non-precious metals alike
[Edit] You write millions of words over a couple decades and you’re going to screw up once in a while. Copper did not hit 3, it hit 3.30. I noted that support incorrectly on the chart. Copper price hammers at support Well, here it is. The target noted in this post last week, 3 bucks/lb. and the 2018 high, is in. Now what? Well, the … Continue reading Copper hits ’round number’ support at $3/lb. [w/ edit, ref. incorrect title]
Gold’s stock and commodity adjusted prices are spiking The nominal gold price is not only going nowhere; it’s fading bearish on a daily chart view. Gold is experiencing selling pressure by the inflation bugs, which I will not belabor for the 1001’st time. Let’s simply note that as the macro markets in general continue to pivot away from the inflation hysteria and toward a bearish … Continue reading Gold price is spiking!
Copper and Copper/Gold continue the dark messaging These things take longer than you’d think when you initiate the analysis at its start. It was about a year ago that I began watching for negative divergences to the inflation that even then was front page news. Then economic Doctor Copper embarked on a forever sideways journey of ups and downs before finally breaking down for real … Continue reading Just another Cu & Cu/Au post
It’s an oversold bounce for the copper price, the Copper/Gold ratio and likely other commodities The daily copper price (futures) is showing a logical bounce from a small support shelf and a deeply oversold condition (RSI). The Copper/Gold ratio, one of our primary economic signalers, is showing the same. Of course, anything can happen. But on the face of it this chart advises the potential … Continue reading Doctor Copper: Oversold bounce
Doctor Copper’s scrip: “The economy is starting to gear down due to the reduction of the very cyclical inflationary forces that had stimulated the patient previously. If you feel a sudden loss of balance, as if a carpet were being pulled out from under your feet that will be the inflation trades you’ve stood resolutely upon continuing from a normal correction to an erosion of … Continue reading Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed…
Copper price (futures) clings to intact status Doctor Copper obviously failed again after a brief head fake above the moving averages. Doc is the cyclical economic metal. It clings to its laborious sideways trend of the last year. The Copper/Gold ratio (i.e. the cyclical doctor vs. the counter-cyclical metal) also labors sideways, but with a slightly negative trend. Considering that gold is having troubles of … Continue reading Copper and the Copper/Gold ratio
Cyclical copper is now signaling full on danger in its relation to gold The lowest low since February 2021 is being struck by the Copper/Gold ratio. And here’s the companion big picture macro chart for your viewing pleasure (or displeasure if you cling to the cyclical inflation view). For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes … Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio failure continues
A few inflation unfriendly pictures while everyone huddles on that side of the boat I don’t know. Maybe they’ve obsoleted contrarian theory. Cancel culture and all. But just in case they haven’t there are these pictures to consider. There are more, but this gives the tenor of the situation from a contrary perspective. 2yr Treasury note is firm and diverging upward by RSI. Doctor Copper … Continue reading Not inflation friendly
Copper and copper miners breaking bad I looked at FCX and thought about buying it as it got dropped to a higher low at the SMA 200. Today it has dropped below it (still a higher low to January’s low). I’d be interested, except that the Copper Miners ETF looks even more suspect and the good Doctor himself is threatening a breakdown… DESPITE booming jobs, … Continue reading Copper, copper miners and the Gold/Silver ratio
Gold vs. risk ‘on’, cyclical items For you sports fans keeping track at home, here is the current view of gold vs. the (much) more cyclical stuff using GLD and various ETFs representing the other markets. It’s a daily chart and you can see gold’s intermediate trend by the SMA 50. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH … Continue reading Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets
As the Copper price finally makes a move that could lead to implosion (this time?) It’s a hard break below the SMA 200 and maybe this time the good doctor will prescribe a counter-cycle. Not so curiously, gold is getting blown up this morning (not quite yet to our downside targets) but oh wait, look at the old monetary man vs. the inflated economic doctor. … Continue reading Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown?
Cu/Au bent but not quite broken Wallowing below the moving averages, the Copper/Gold ratio is vulnerable. It’s a vulnerability that has been in play before to no damaging effect to the cyclical inflation trades. But these things take forever (and a day) compared to our flitting brain waves firing off signals in real time. Once again, the ‘reminder’ chart about the big picture macro. The … Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio continues to be macro unfriendly