Copper and Gold miners are leading the Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets Back in October we began to plan the prospect of a relief rally that would be fueled by over-bearish sentiment (contrary bullish), ‘Fed hawk’ relief as we anticipated inflation signals to ease, and a post (mid-term) election seasonal pattern that is bullish for stocks. This public article had a lot to say … Continue reading Q4-Q1 rally regains its mojo, led by the miners
The copper price is up big today vs. the gold price, but… …unfortunately for cyclical inflation bulls, it got croaked the last two days and broke down from an already longer-term bearish situation. Reference Copper/Gold ratio and the inflated macro. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates … Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio up big today!
The Copper/Gold ratio broke down as expected in 2022 In 2021 we noted for month after uneventful month the most recent consolidation at resistance by the ratio of the copper price (cyclical, inflation sensitive) and the gold price (far less cyclical and less inflation sensitive) and anticipated bearish things to come for the risk ‘on’, inflation-fueled world of assets. Well, check. The Copper/Gold ratio is … Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio and the inflated macro
The copper price bangs the downtrending daily SMA 200 for the 3rd time in a month It’s pretty simple. The major daily trend marker (SMA 200) is sloping down and the first step for the copper price to break its downtrend would be to take it out (and keep it taken out). Then the work begins in order to change the trend. Meanwhile, the copper … Continue reading Copper price at the daily SMA 200 (again)
It’s FOMC week, the eggheads have dispersed to their private offices and now into the void comes man, machine, black box and casino patron of all stripes. FOMC week; it was bound to be volatile. Let’s take a gold-centric view to gauge the metal’s standing within the wider markets. Gold/Silver is bouncing this morning along with the US dollar. That’s normal, both in the correlation … Continue reading NFTRH+; pre-market from a golden perspective
While the copper price can continue to rise near-term, the picture is turning negative The bounce back rally in the copper price has been anticipated as part of the Q4-Q1 party theme hosted by Wayne and Garth. But the rally began with a sentiment tailwind from the copper commitments of traders (CoT) – as we noted last summer in NFTRH for several metals, including the … Continue reading Commercial traders now net short as Copper price rises
A quick update on a couple of important indicators. The Gold/Oil ratio as represented by GLD/USO is bouncing hard today within its downtrend. As the gold mining bull I expect to be that is an important first step. Maybe be nothing right now, or it may be the start of something. If Gold/Oil double bottoms and turns up for real we would have an important … Continue reading NFTRH+; follow-through needed on these moves
The nominal gold price is positive this morning and still trapped below initial resistance. The silver price has retaken and thus far held the daily SMA 50. The copper price has smashed back above its SMA 50, up stronger than either of the above as the bounce attempt from support at 3.30 grinds on. Let’s take a look at the gold/silver and gold/copper ratios. The … Continue reading NFTRH+; a couple of important gold ratios
Gold’s ratios to stocks, copper and silver (daily charts)… “It’s a process” he parroted for months on end. Gold/ES continues its recovery and bodes well for the counter-cyclical view from a stock market vantage point. Gold/Copper got whacked yesterday but thus far clings to its pattern. Whether or not that pattern fails, the trends are up and thus, against the cyclical inflationary view from this … Continue reading Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD)
Me neither… For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see all options and more … Continue reading Does the Copper/Gold ratio look good to you?
Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold correlated with the 10yr yield From yardeni.com, a visual representation of one implication of the Copper/Gold ratio, which I often make a big deal about. If the Copper/Gold ratio has broken down for real (I believe it has) then yields are going to reverse, along with the inflation trades. That’s a theme I’ve had going for about a year now, but this … Continue reading Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields
In an ‘all one market’ signal, gold, silver and copper are contrary constructive, bullish and bullish respectively by sentiment/positioning in the Commitments of Traders Gold improved this week from an already okay alignment as large Specs sold and shorted, Commercials covered shorts and bought and little guys net shorted. Not bad. From CFTC… Silver was already very bullish by the contrary CoT view and now … Continue reading Gold, Silver & Copper CoT data improve from already constructive to bullish alignments
Doc and the old man: A likely false dawn amid summer relief Many indicators became overdone to the downside in June and July. Certainly sentiment indicators did. But so did cyclical/counter-cyclical indicators. One major tankage was in our often reviewed Copper/Gold ratio (a ratio of a cyclical and inflation sensitive metal vs. a counter-cyclical and less inflation sensitive metal), which persisted in indecision mode all … Continue reading A message from Doctor Copper and stodgy old man Gold
The copper price is tanking, and not just nominally As the upcoming FOMC is forced by market signals to keep its hawk suit on (as of today 54% of CME traders now expect a 1% rate hike with the remaining 46% in the .75% camp), global financial markets are bending to the pressure of Fed policy. The daily chart of copper futures is eyeballing the … Continue reading Doctor Copper, Old Man Gold and a deterioration of inflated markets