Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season). While the nominal sector (HUI or the … Continue reading Gold Stocks: Not quite yet
Excerpted from the October 2 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 725: Gold & Silver Gold and silver (monthly chart) continue in the cyclical bear that started in mid-2020. I had originally (and incorrectly) projected a Cup & Handle for gold that had to be revised to a double top when the 2022 high failed to gain blue sky. I’ve left the Cup … Continue reading NFTRH 725 excerpt: Gold & Silver big picture
Metals Commitments of Traders are contrary bullish The gold price chart is looking bad technically. But the gold CoT alignment, especially where the little guy (blue) is concerned, is contrary bullish, or at least constructive. Charts from CotBase. Silver CoT is in great shape, while the silver price chart err… isn’t. There are long-term support levels (not shown on this chart) we are using, however, … Continue reading Bullish CoT data on precious and non-precious metals alike
This is how an inflation phase ends It’s called the bust that follows an inflated boom. The US dollar and Gold/Silver ratio traditionally ride together to bring it on. The current backdrop is as we’ve allowed for and even anticipated in NFTRH (against heavy cash I am positioned in the stuff that is not inflation-dependent, and it is working today). It’s a whiff of ‘Goldilocks’ … Continue reading US dollar & Gold/Silver ratio
The message is anti-inflationary Conveniently, with FOMC coming up on July 27th, inflation signals continue to unwind. Hmmm, and right into what on average is a seasonal low in the precious metals in July. I am holding DUST as a short against the gold miners but want to make sure I am not feeling too self-congratulatory about it [edit: I shook myself out for a … Continue reading Silver/Gold ratio also on message [w/ edit]
These daily charts are flipped over to a view that is ‘anti’ their normal selves I have often referred to the improbably bullish (to many; NFTRH has tracked and respected the bullish dollar for a year now) US dollar as an anti-market, the liquidity collector from the global liquidity-driven and speculative mess created by the Fed and its fellows. But here is a look at … Continue reading ‘Anti’ markets
Doctor Copper’s scrip: “The economy is starting to gear down due to the reduction of the very cyclical inflationary forces that had stimulated the patient previously. If you feel a sudden loss of balance, as if a carpet were being pulled out from under your feet that will be the inflation trades you’ve stood resolutely upon continuing from a normal correction to an erosion of … Continue reading Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed…
The monthly chart of the silver price offers two alternatives Excerpted from NFTRH 709: Here is silver’s view using a monthly chart. To this point we have used a daily chart to express the importance of the 22 area resistance [as noted on daily charts], which must be overcome (current: 21.93). But the bigger picture shows support at 18.25 and 21.25. The post #silversqueeze (how … Continue reading Key big picture support for Silver
Gold/Silver ratio (and USD) would attend global liquidity stress I know. I know. It’s a mutant inflation and all, with global war and politics driving the bus now, and the Fed all but marginalized. But still, more monetary and counter-cyclical gold is rising in relation to silver (more cyclical, industrial and hence, commodity-like) and that is not cyclical inflationary signaling, especially with both metals struggling … Continue reading Gold/Silver ratio continues to diverge the inflation trades
Silver ticks resistance at 22 Resistance is only resistance until it is taken out and turned to support. At the moment it is still resistance. The ‘V’ bounce has come from viable long-term support (not visible on this daily chart) that we observed in an NFTRH update (password protected) a week ago. The daily moving average trends are down, but even within that downtrend it … Continue reading The proving ground for Silver
NFTRH 705 excerpt (May 15) on silver (as silver futures tick 21.92, just below the key resistance zone beginning at 22) Watch Silver The broad markets finally took a sentiment bounce; or was it just a one day short covering rally? I wrote an extended article on Friday so we don’t have to get too gritty into details that have yet to emerge. Upside bounce … Continue reading NFTRH 705 on Silver
Gold/Silver ratio breakout continues apace Slowly it toined (last week man stared at chart while stuck on an airplane at JFK, Brooklyn accent appropriately included)… …and today it continues to break upward. Folks, if you don’t have your chops in order about what an upturn in gold vs. silver, copper and the rest of more inflation-sensitive (and in most cases, cyclical) stuff means you should … Continue reading Not to be outdone, the Gold/Silver Ratio…
Platinum joins its bullish fellow PGM, Palladium [edit] Solid profits now booked on all ‘paper’ bullion vehicles. Bird, meet hand. The Platinum price is making a move to try to keep up with big bro Palladium as it attempts a daily chart channel buster. Last week I cut my Pd position back to be roughly the size of my Pt position, leaving silver of all … Continue reading Platinum: “Me too!” [w/ edit]
Silver price makes a bit of a move It is uncharacteristic of silver to be so muted, while gold and various other metals gain attention. But that, in my opinion, is the gift that keeps on giving compliments of the ill-conceived #silversqueeze promotion over a year ago. Markets always seek out balance in some way, shape or form. It appears that the promotion is finally … Continue reading Silver futures
