A brief look at currencies Excerpted from the June 12 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole: Currencies All hail Uncle Buck! Especially those who’ve been guiding their herds against it not only over the last bullish year, but since the bullish Goldilocks flavored up-surge in 2014 and well, ever since I began seriously paying attention to the global macro in 2002. The USD, AKA … Continue reading Currencies (NFTRH 709 excerpt)
Global currencies and Bitcoin vs. USD Reference a previous post on ‘commodity currencies‘ From NFTRH 705‘s Currencies segment… Everybody in this sad picture is as they were last week. The reserve currency is sucking up all that liquidity fleeing the risk ‘on’, inflated cyclical asset world and the other ‘non-reserve’ currencies are being exposed as the fundamentally valueless instruments they are. Of course USD is … Continue reading Currencies (incl. Bitcoin) vs. USD
CAD and AUD are each at important support vs. the US dollar index There are just too many important support touch points on CAD/USD for this not to be a key support area right here. The same holds true for AUD/USD. These two commodity currencies have been joining fellow inflation-divergent items like the Gold/Copper ratio, Gold/Silver ratio, TSX-V/TSX ratio and the firm state of the … Continue reading Commodity currencies must stand and deliver, or break down
As USD and Gold rise, Bitcoin acts like the speculation that it is The US dollar is roofing… Gold is also getting the global liquidity bid. And then there is BTCUSD, acting like a speculation along with all the other speculations the world over. Where’s Tom Brady and what’s her name, the hotel heiress come crypto big mouth when you need them? For “best of … Continue reading Bitcoin: Acting like the speculation it is
USD has bounced to the 50 day moving average As anticipated, USD (DXY) has bounced back to former upside target #2 and the underside of the SMA 50. This on Fed hawk anticipation and I assume the waning of market liquidity. If the Gold/Silver ratio also turns up and both of them keep going (the 2 horsemen ride), unpleasant is going to be way too … Continue reading USD & Gold/Silver ratio each bounce
What worked at the beginning of the inflationary phase will probably work in reverse at the end As USD pops today to test the breakdown from the SMA 50… I am by no means calling an end to the inflation trades yet (near/intermediate-term targets are higher), but I am telling you that the reputations being made (or in many cases re-made) among the ‘Commodity Super … Continue reading Speaking of Uncle Buck, he has a story to tell
USD index (DXY) recoils to test the SMA 50 breakdown, as expected Per NFTRH 689’s Currencies segment… “USD index dropped harder than I’d expected from the SMA 50 to just above the first support area at 94.50. Then it had an up day on Friday. Commodity currencies CAD & AUD stopped at resistance and the status remains the same. The ‘CRB to [target omitted], USD … Continue reading Uncle Buck strikes back
US dollar index (DXY) losing the SMA 50 Back on January 2 NFTRH 687 noted and we prepared for a US dollar failure of its SMA 50, which would load a potential and key downside target (I’ll keep it to myself, but it is one of those marked on this chart), which would coincide with a bird flipped in the face of the hawkish Fed, … Continue reading Uncle Buck: “Ruh Roh”
The US dollar (DXY) continues to target 98 In Q1 2021 USD bottomed amid the usual suspects proclaiming “dollar collapse!” and “death of the dollar!” and inflation as far as the eye can see. Zero Hedge led the charge. As the inflation trades labored into the spring USD formed a neckline (black dashed), dropped for an interim (at least) last hurrah by the inflation boosters, … Continue reading Uncle Buck continues to rampage
US dollar hits resistance at 96 Uncle Buck need not rally anymore, but if the yield curve steepens under pains of deflation (I know, I know… impossible, right?) it will probably go there and beyond. Objective #3 at the 62% Fib is the final upside target we’ve been carrying for the majority of 2021. As stated, Unc need not go there as he has already … Continue reading USD (DYX) boinks target #2
US dollar index (DXY) eyes 96 and the 50% Fib retrace Funny how “dollar collapse!!!” is no longer part of the ‘analysis’ by gold bugs, inflationistas and commodity bulls. It has been replaced by rationale like ‘it’s the best of a bad bunch (of global currencies)’, which I agree with due to USD’s reserve status. But still, if you were going to scare us with … Continue reading Uncle Buck rampaging to target #2
USD (DXY) continues to rise as a divergence to the inflation trades Fed-stoked casino patrons (including your local writer) have been inflation trading for much of 2021, and on CPI hysterics Wednesday we find James Bullard – as if on cue – out with the rate hike tough talk, inflation trades selling the news and Uncle Buck rampaging through our long-standing first target at the … Continue reading Uncle Buck is pissed
USD (DXY) makes a 38% Fib retrace USD (futures, DXY) has been in an uptrend for all of 2021. The uptrend was birthed by the March high and subsequent higher low in May, which turned out to be the right side shoulder we then began to manage. That shoulder was to an Inverted H&S bottoming pattern with three upside objectives. #1 is being hit at … Continue reading US Dollar dings target #1, inflation trades still on
US dollar (DXY) holds support at the SMA 50 There is a reason I keep an eye on divergences within markets (USD has been one against inflated markets for all of 2021), trends (USD trend is up since January) and support/resistance/moving averages. Today, even if in microcosm, USD informs us that it is alive and well as of this moment and by extension, a threat … Continue reading Uncle Buck on a rampage against the macro this morning
