High Yield spreads are elevating And the message is not a happy one for the risk ‘on’ world, which is most of the investing world. Combine it with Gold/Silver, Gold/Copper and even Gold/SPX and you have a recipe for more pain; lots of it despite any bouncing the markets may do. And despite the fact that gold has not even gotten off its ample butt … Continue reading Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle
Cyclical copper is now signaling full on danger in its relation to gold The lowest low since February 2021 is being struck by the Copper/Gold ratio. And here’s the companion big picture macro chart for your viewing pleasure (or displeasure if you cling to the cyclical inflation view). For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes … Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio failure continues
Yield curve steepening, but there’s more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary. This new one well, my bet is the opposite. So to repeat, everyone is on one side of the macro boat and a post-inversion steepener usually comes with an economic bust. This market is rapidly … Continue reading New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve
Copper and copper miners breaking bad I looked at FCX and thought about buying it as it got dropped to a higher low at the SMA 200. Today it has dropped below it (still a higher low to January’s low). I’d be interested, except that the Copper Miners ETF looks even more suspect and the good Doctor himself is threatening a breakdown… DESPITE booming jobs, … Continue reading Copper, copper miners and the Gold/Silver ratio
Gold/Silver ratio breakout continues apace Slowly it toined (last week man stared at chart while stuck on an airplane at JFK, Brooklyn accent appropriately included)… …and today it continues to break upward. Folks, if you don’t have your chops in order about what an upturn in gold vs. silver, copper and the rest of more inflation-sensitive (and in most cases, cyclical) stuff means you should … Continue reading Not to be outdone, the Gold/Silver Ratio…
As the Copper price finally makes a move that could lead to implosion (this time?) It’s a hard break below the SMA 200 and maybe this time the good doctor will prescribe a counter-cycle. Not so curiously, gold is getting blown up this morning (not quite yet to our downside targets) but oh wait, look at the old monetary man vs. the inflated economic doctor. … Continue reading Doctor Copper: Finally the breakdown?
Our flight back from Key West had a detour as jets cannot fully fuel up in Key West due to its really short runway (you should see how they slam on the breaks and stop these things abruptly when landing) and Boston weather said ‘take no chances’. So we’re sitting, sitting and sitting some more at JFK waiting to finish refueling. What to do? Sit, … Continue reading Sitting at a gate at JFK, man stares at the Gold/Silver ratio
Subscribers will understand the macro implications of a breakdown in the ‘V’ and the ongoing downtrend in its relationship to the Canadian TSX index. Anyone else should realize at the least that the time is not right for speculation in the far reaches of the ‘resources’ and ‘inflation’ trades. This is how I vacation! :-) Continue reading TSX-V
Last day of vacation, which I have committed to and enjoyed. Wife is understanding today as I ease back into work mode for a bit. Copper/Gold ratio is bent but not yet broken. A real breakdown in this ratio is something I’ve favored and would view as a big step toward the counter-cyclical macro. Again, as yet, bent but not yet broken. Continue reading Copper/Gold ratio
Gold (not cyclical, less inflation-sensitive) vs. Copper (the metallic economic doctor) Because it can be tiring looking at the Copper/Gold ratio every week, let’s flip it over to the counter-cyclical perspective. It’s the same story of a year-long consolidation that will eventually resolve one way, up (counter-cyclical, and counter the ‘good’ or cyclical inflation) or the other, down (cyclical inflation continues with a stable global … Continue reading Gold/Copper ratio
Copper/Gold ratio continues sideways (what, you expected something different?) Because if nothing else, I am consistent. For a year I have reported to you the non-signal of Cu/Au. And so the macro continues its creep toward a future decision. Of course the yield curve is now doing something important and maybe other indicators will start to play ball with each other, which is what we … Continue reading Just another Cu/Au ratio going nowhere post
Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Okay, let’s take a breath. I don’t like to use ‘!’ in titles or even in articles. In fact, when I see too many of them I immediately think that someone really REALLY wants me to see their point. That said, the signal shown below is pretty important. It’s in-month with a monstrously … Continue reading The Continuum: Through the limiters!
Junk bond indications under rising pressure again When last we updated the High Yield spread it was easing in line with the market relief that came with a market bounce from extremely over-bearish short-term sentiment. Well, now it is back on its rising theme as junk bonds go back out of favor relative to higher quality bonds. It’s an indication of risk ‘off’ behavior as … Continue reading High Yield credit spread rising again
Copper/Gold ratio is still sideways The decision by this discrete indicator (remember, it’s a group of indicators we want to see indicating similar outcomes for any given macro backdrop) has not been logged yet. The copper price is pulling back vs. the gold price but the ratio is still in its long sideways trend. This will not last and when it finally breaks out, up … Continue reading A friendly reminder from Dr. Copper & old man Gold