Me neither… For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see all options and more … Continue reading Does the Copper/Gold ratio look good to you?
Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold correlated with the 10yr yield From yardeni.com, a visual representation of one implication of the Copper/Gold ratio, which I often make a big deal about. If the Copper/Gold ratio has broken down for real (I believe it has) then yields are going to reverse, along with the inflation trades. That’s a theme I’ve had going for about a year now, but this … Continue reading Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields
Junk bond ETF outperforms both Treasury and ‘investment grade’ (IG) bonds As would be expected, nominal junk (HYG) is pretty bearish along with the rest of cyclical/risk ‘on’ markets. It’s in a 2022 daily chart downtrend. With the tiring inflation story still eating away at Treasury bonds, it’s logical I suppose that Junk is strong in relation to T bonds. But what of Junk vs. … Continue reading US Treasury bonds are worse than Junk
The 10yr-2yr yield spread has taken out its previous short-term high Thus, it’s certainly a candidate to begin the steepener that seems only a matter of (diminishing) time. Notice how it took out the previous high and also the July high. Here’s the link at CNBC where you can check the status any time you’d like (assuming you’ve got a little nerd in you). The … Continue reading Yield Curve steepener in play?
The US dollar and the Gold/Silver ratio are bulling together… And per the Seinfeld bad chicken episode, “that’s not gonna be good for anybody.” Here we see Uncle Buck (DXY) doing what he has been doing since he began diverging the inflation hysteria well over a year ago. And his fellow rider doing similar. For anyone new to this, the ratio of gold to silver … Continue reading 2 Horsemen of the (macro) Apocalypse ride on…
Doc and the old man: A likely false dawn amid summer relief Many indicators became overdone to the downside in June and July. Certainly sentiment indicators did. But so did cyclical/counter-cyclical indicators. One major tankage was in our often reviewed Copper/Gold ratio (a ratio of a cyclical and inflation sensitive metal vs. a counter-cyclical and less inflation sensitive metal), which persisted in indecision mode all … Continue reading A message from Doctor Copper and stodgy old man Gold
Rise in high yield credit spreads threatens recession A rising spread indicates disfavor toward junk bonds (oh so favored during speculative risk ‘on’ phases) and this behavior can eventually either grind its way toward economic recession or spike its way there (ref. 2020). Here is a longer-term view. Whether it grinds (2000) or spikes (2008 & 2020) a continued rise would eventually be a recession … Continue reading High yield credit spreads continue to rise
This is how an inflation phase ends It’s called the bust that follows an inflated boom. The US dollar and Gold/Silver ratio traditionally ride together to bring it on. The current backdrop is as we’ve allowed for and even anticipated in NFTRH (against heavy cash I am positioned in the stuff that is not inflation-dependent, and it is working today). It’s a whiff of ‘Goldilocks’ … Continue reading US dollar & Gold/Silver ratio
The message is anti-inflationary Conveniently, with FOMC coming up on July 27th, inflation signals continue to unwind. Hmmm, and right into what on average is a seasonal low in the precious metals in July. I am holding DUST as a short against the gold miners but want to make sure I am not feeling too self-congratulatory about it [edit: I shook myself out for a … Continue reading Silver/Gold ratio also on message [w/ edit]
Copper and Copper/Gold continue the dark messaging These things take longer than you’d think when you initiate the analysis at its start. It was about a year ago that I began watching for negative divergences to the inflation that even then was front page news. Then economic Doctor Copper embarked on a forever sideways journey of ups and downs before finally breaking down for real … Continue reading Just another Cu & Cu/Au post
It’s an oversold bounce for the copper price, the Copper/Gold ratio and likely other commodities The daily copper price (futures) is showing a logical bounce from a small support shelf and a deeply oversold condition (RSI). The Copper/Gold ratio, one of our primary economic signalers, is showing the same. Of course, anything can happen. But on the face of it this chart advises the potential … Continue reading Doctor Copper: Oversold bounce
Doctor Copper’s scrip: “The economy is starting to gear down due to the reduction of the very cyclical inflationary forces that had stimulated the patient previously. If you feel a sudden loss of balance, as if a carpet were being pulled out from under your feet that will be the inflation trades you’ve stood resolutely upon continuing from a normal correction to an erosion of … Continue reading Doctor Copper’s prescription enclosed…
Copper price (futures) clings to intact status Doctor Copper obviously failed again after a brief head fake above the moving averages. Doc is the cyclical economic metal. It clings to its laborious sideways trend of the last year. The Copper/Gold ratio (i.e. the cyclical doctor vs. the counter-cyclical metal) also labors sideways, but with a slightly negative trend. Considering that gold is having troubles of … Continue reading Copper and the Copper/Gold ratio
Gold is regaining its composure vs. cyclical markets It’s a process, folks. An extended and annoying process. Our brains fire off in real time but the markets move over time frames. Using ETFs for the actual markets, let’s note that… GLD/SPY has held the intermediate uptrend, aiming for a new cycle high. GLD/ACWX is a bit weaker but still constructive. GLD/FXI has been getting drubbed … Continue reading Gold vs. ‘risk on’, cyclical markets
