The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve indicates that the economic bust is on schedule
No way did I know that Trump was going to shove it into gear so actively like this. But I did know that an economic bust was extremely likely as far back as 2023 when the yield curve made a secondary extreme inversion low and began to steepen.
While still inverted * the danger signal had not become acute, but the indicator was on its way.
An economic boom runs with a curve flattener and a bust with a curve steepener.
Today, as short-term Treasuries gain relative liquidity bidding vs. long-term Treasuries, the curve is naturally taking a lurch higher in its steepener and poor economic signaling.
* As often harped upon, it is not the inversion (that the media made such a big and bearish stink about) that gets you. It’s the subsequent steepening and de-inversion. To great comedic effect, the media actually trumpeted that danger was averted when the curve re-ticked upward from a slight inversion last September.
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You too bearish.
You could well be right. But would you care to add some reasoning about why I am too bearish? You can make an assertion, but backing it up gives it weight.