January payrolls boomed at +517,000 You can click the graphic to get the details from BLS: I was quite taken aback by how strong the January Payrolls reading was. While I did not necessarily expect deceleration or a counter-cyclical reading (my view for the balance of 2023) of some kind, this was stunning and unexpected. Although I did not expect it, I did expect what … Continue reading January Payrolls +517,000
Inflation signals and economy fading/decelerating as expected That which was built of inflation will deconstruct with inflation’s fade. That’s the rough plan, anyway. It’s important to remember that short-term phases measured in days or even weeks will do what they will do. But the 2023 picture is for inflationary fears, which were so 2021-2022, to fade and along with it the inflated economy (circa 2020) … Continue reading Are we on plan or what?
It occurs to me that I write a lot of words. It also occurs to me that important ideas can get lost in all those words. This little update wants to fix that with a brief explanation. Talk of inflation or more accurately, it’s end, is not inclusive of whatever CPI prints tomorrow. We are looking at trends, not events pertaining to a finite time … Continue reading NFTRH+; the core concept of the 2023 play in simple terms
December payrolls increased by 223,000 You can click this graphic for the full BLS report… You can click this fellow doing his job to see the MSM’s take on it… You can gaze at this graphic to see if maybe you see a thus far gently declining trend in job growth… And as always, you can let Hazel guide you as to the particulars… Those … Continue reading December Payrolls report: +223,000
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. Continue reading Protected: NFTRH 738
Philly Fed manufacturing and non-manufacturing data are decelerating Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December Current Philadelphia area manufacturing activity has drilled down toward recession levels, while optimistic survey respondents see a bounce coming. Prices are still elevated as the last vestiges of the previous inflationary operations cling to elevated levels, but with a deflationary trajectory. Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey for December It’s not just manufacturing. … Continue reading Inputs from the Philly Fed surveys for December
In another surprise (not), November Payrolls increased more than expected It’s a process, rolling an economy over. November Payrolls exceeded expectations and given the season and the nature of Payrolls as a lagging indicator, it’s no impediment to the 2023 economic contraction view. Nope, nuh uh. You can click the graphic to get the report from BLS: On to the details, we find the Good … Continue reading November Payrolls +263k
David Rosenberg on Deflation From an NFTRH subscriber: “Gary, You might want to watch David Rosenberg’s presentation. You guys have a lot in common wrt your market outlook and deflation expectations.” Thanks, Michael. I am enjoying listening to him right now. I love non-promotional voices just telling it as they see it. Continue reading David Rosenberg on Deflation
Year over year CPI inflation rate eases in October An easing in concerns about the effects of the Fed’s 2020 creation of massive sums of funny munny. Frankly, I was mentally prepared for yet another year over year CPI comp to instigate negative headlines and more angst because how, absent a crystal ball, do you definitively predict which month will be the trigger? But for … Continue reading CPI: The munny shot!
Today the market is supposedly negative due to election uncertainty. But whatever way it goes, the historical post-election data suggest out performance compared to the 2022 run up to the election at worst, and a rally at best. The media think that if Republicans take congress it would be positive and negative if the Democrats do. Historical averages say it probably will not matter much … Continue reading NFTRH+; the state of things
Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions are becoming a thing of the past Check out the state of one of the drivers that exacerbated the inflation created by the Federal Reserve. As implied by our recent check-ups on the decelerating ISM and other manufacturing surveys, the Richmond manufacturing index shows that supply chain issues were so 2021. Here’s a compelling view from the always handy Daily Shot. … Continue reading Remember those supply chain issues?
“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble … Continue reading “Post-bubble contraction”
Below is a short excerpt from NFTRH 726 on the post-bubble contraction, as coined by Bob Hoye. My critique of Bob’s timing does not compare to my admiration of his rare and right minded fundamental views of the gold sector. Indeed, you can click this graphic for a PDF file of Bob discussing the sector. I was made aware of this shortly after posting #726 … Continue reading Hoye’s Post-Bubble Contraction
Admin Notes Changes were made to nftrh.com last week and while I trust that most people rolled with the changes, there are a couple of changes that some may find confusing. The website’s front page is no longer a blog. It is a static page. The blog is accessible with one click from the front page. The graphic below shows the option to either click … Continue reading NFTRH 725