Core CPI Hits 2 Year Low, Any Questions?
Inflation reads flat and core CPI hits 2 year low; because of course they did! One year ago we began projecting a coming bull rally that would be the product…
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November 14, 2023
Hazel Radiates That Winning Attitude; Payrolls +336k vs. +170k (est)
September payrolls +336,000 vs. estimate of 170,000 September payrolls knocked it out of the park. Meanwhile, stock futures drop, bond yields and USD spike and curiously, gold holds relatively firm.…
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October 6, 2023
Why is the Fed Still Tilting at Fading Inflation?
With inflation fading, the US Federal Reserve continues to the fight against... inflation! The question is 'why?'. Why do Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve continue to tilt against the…
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September 8, 2023
August Payrolls Report +187k vs. +170k Expected
Good Ship Lollipop sails on with a minor beat vs. expectations You can read the report at BLS by clicking below: I'd say that keeps the winning, yet ever creepy…
September 1, 2023
July Payrolls, +187,000
July Payrolls came in light, Hazel attempts to frown but her grotesque smile still lurks beneath The estimate by economists for July payrolls was +200,000. It came in light. So…
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August 4, 2023
June Payrolls Report: +209,000, Lower Than Expected
June Payrolls Report checks in at +209,000 (expectations were 240,000) Okay, so we can try to paint a little frown on Hazel's face, although my artwork is no match for…
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July 7, 2023
A Fed rate pause, and then?
After a Fed rate pause (or "skip" as they're billing it) in June, July will be the key meeting As noted in yesterday's post, a Fed rate pause for June…
June 14, 2023
US manufacturing (ISM) is in a robotic decline
US manufacturing (ISM PMI) has dropped in sytematic, robotic fashion over the last 12 months From an index reading of 53% in June, 2022 to 47% today, the sector has…
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June 6, 2023
May Payrolls report illusion
May Payrolls report; not all it's cracked up to be On Friday we noted that the May Payrolls report was 'services' laden and late stage stuff. Early stage stuff like…
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June 5, 2023
May Payrolls report; a booming laggard
The May Payrolls report shows what else? Booming and laggard Services drives payrolls at +339,000 Killing an inflated economy is proving to be touchy (and sticky) business. As manufacturing continues…
June 2, 2023
March ISM report; Macro view on track
The March ISM report on manufacturing is right on schedule to our macro view Manufacturing is not a laggard, like a lot of the inflation stuff and services-related employment still…
April 4, 2023