July Payrolls +528,000

BLS reports job gains of 528,000 in July Click headline, get full BLS report. This ought to keep Hazel good and busy as Americans lap up Professional & Business services, Education & Health services, Leisure & Hospitality services and Government services. Why it’s a reflection of the temporary ‘Goldilocks’ theme we’ve been working to. If you recall the massive yield curve flattener from 2013 to … Continue reading July Payrolls +528,000

Hussman’s latest: Are we there yet?

John Hussman’s July market comment Are We There Yet? I have not read ole’ Doc Hussman in years but I’ve had him linked at this site for many years and this morning took a look at his latest article. Same old Doc. Outstanding financial market realism. When the collapse comes (and I suspect it will), don’t blame Fed tightening for bursting the bubble. Once “bubble” … Continue reading Hussman’s latest: Are we there yet?

ISM & Payrolls

May ISM and Payrolls both positive Today the backward looking Payrolls report gets the headlines but this week saw another important economic report. One that probably contains more important information. The May ISM PMI came out and it shows contracting employment but still buoyant prices, orders and general business. The complications arise in the persistent supply chain issues, complicated by COVID-19 and a geopolitical world … Continue reading ISM & Payrolls

Payrolls +428,000

April Payrolls increase by 428,000 You can get all the details of yet another strong BLS report by clicking the blurb: Drilling into it we find Leisure and Hospitality leading the consumerist ‘services’ economy as usual. But look who’s also strong. That would be manufacturing, which is growing as noted in yesterday’s post, albeit at a slowing rate. That’s pretty good. But a 12 month … Continue reading Payrolls +428,000


April ISM and the forward economic view

ISM hints at forward deceleration Uncle Buck As a former manufacturing guy I am well aware of how monetary policy and the state of the US dollar affects US manufacturers. But I have not been that guy for so long now that I tend not to look at it as closely anymore. But the current time seems appropriate for a review of the manufacturing sector. … Continue reading April ISM and the forward economic view

Gold/Copper ratio

Gold (not cyclical, less inflation-sensitive) vs. Copper (the metallic economic doctor) Because it can be tiring looking at the Copper/Gold ratio every week, let’s flip it over to the counter-cyclical perspective. It’s the same story of a year-long consolidation that will eventually resolve one way, up (counter-cyclical, and counter the ‘good’ or cyclical inflation) or the other, down (cyclical inflation continues with a stable global … Continue reading Gold/Copper ratio

NFTRH 700, out now

700… hmm… For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by PayPal or credit card using a button on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see other options. Keep up … Continue reading NFTRH 700, out now


The Citi Economic Surprise Index led the correction; now what? As we noted for all too many months in a row in NFTRH, the CESI had been on a gross divergence to the S&P 500. That gap, as measured by SPX technicals, is now closed. Indeed, the data do not include today’s big GDP surprise. Interesting, and on the face of it, not bearish. From … Continue reading Surprise!

Beneath the CPI, a little whiff of Stagflation

CPI ramps, but real hourly earnings decline Okay, it’s another ‘Inflation Friday’ as the November CPI ramps (click graphic, get report)… So the headline is the big inflation number. But the sub-headline is the poor real hourly earnings number of -.4%, even as nominal earnings increased. All employees Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the … Continue reading Beneath the CPI, a little whiff of Stagflation

Payrolls +230k, a ‘disappointment’

November Payrolls +230,000 vs. 573,000 estimate Of course, it’s all about the Fed, eh? With a side order of Omicron. Click the graphic below, get the report from BLS that is a ‘disappointment’ vs. estimates. In a policy-driven market bad news is good news, down is up and it’s all normal in the rabbit hole. Here is the industry breakdown with an interesting views of … Continue reading Payrolls +230k, a ‘disappointment’

When the tight economic rope slackens [w/ edit]

[edit] Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield Curve. Here is its status at the time of writing. It is making a steepening hint this week along with the rise in bond yields. That signaling is inflationary, at least for now. But in … Continue reading When the tight economic rope slackens [w/ edit]

BLS: Jobs +235k, way below expectations

August Payrolls disappoints at 235,000; one sector would benefit So I guess that the Citi Economic Surprise Index per yesterday’s post is more concerning still, as analysts expecting +720,000 new jobs get whacked upside the head again. A click of the headline yields the report from BLS… Here is the visual on who is and is not gaining employment. WTF happened to Leisure and Hospitality, … Continue reading BLS: Jobs +235k, way below expectations

Jobs, hot off the press… +943k

July payrolls from BLS: +943k Click image, get report… The number is a little more than what the media says the markets expected, but all in all not a surprise. Here is the graphical breakdown of monthly changes. Who is surprised that the Good Ship Lollipop is massively leveraged to its behemoth Services industries. Specifically, Leisure & Hospitality services. Also, who is surprised that government … Continue reading Jobs, hot off the press… +943k