The 10yr-2yr yield curve remains on its new steepener The macro is grinding along, subject to daily noise that drives nominal yields up or down (today's noise du jour is…
November Payrolls report higher than expected w/ strange bedfellows Tap headline for the full report. Hazel? She's fine. Never a doubt for old Haz in the massive consumerist/services economy. Strange…
Gold's fundamentals are intact, with one "great" exception Edit: This post is critical of Trump's oncoming economic policies and the idea of his "Make America great again" jingle. But I…
Our time target for the bull market will be registered on election day Of course, there must be a (+/-) tolerance built into the time target because who among us…
October Payrolls report: Slowly I turn... Here is the report from BLS: I've been waiting to wipe that spine chilling smile off her face. Well, what do we have here?…
The transition to a post-bubble macro continues making progress When the bubble makers are finally banished, when their policies are shown in the light of day (and of a rebellious…
Services and government do the lifting as usual, per the September payrolls report Click the graphic for the full September payrolls report from BLS: Americans continue to consume services at…
As the economy slows, the mortgage refinance boom is among the components of the "Goldilocks" economy Some media (along with anecdotal sources witnessed on X) are trumpeting how strong the…
The September 22 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#828) had some things to say about the FOMC action last week, before putting its tin foil hat back in…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step... The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion…
The New York Fed's September Empire Manufacturing Survey trends back to positive My economic thesis is for contraction and a counter-cyclical environment. So the September Empire Manufacturing Survey flies in…
Gold's standing relative to cyclical markets continues to improve, thus, so does the macro backdrop for gold mining equities Without digging up too much theory and analysis from the past,…
The August Payrolls report comes in a little light (142k) vs. expectations of 161k You can tap the image for the full BLS report: Here is the graphic included in…
