Just kidding. It’s a reference to some gold bug man staring at a gold chart… …many years ago, labeling it “the most important chart in the world”. Some things just stick with me. 2 year Treasury bond yield is important across the macro Yes, it is very important because it has been a primary guide for the Fed to get (tardy though they were) and … Continue reading The most important chart in the world!
Weak USD, strong EM debt… logical and expected From the December 14th NFTRH Trade Log… Here’s the daily chart, which includes dividends. A chart without divies also shows a notable move. NFTRH is far from a gold stock obsessive. While I am as bullish as anybody on the gold stock sector (but for the right reasons, unlike perma-bulls out there) this is not a newsletter … Continue reading EM debt made its move
30 year Treasury bond yield pulls back from 4.4% to 3.4% (on cue) I’d like to not so humbly note for public readers that long before the rising rates hysteria came near its peak prior to flaming out, this (now public) NFTRH update from last February noted a target at around the 4% level per a small breakout on the daily chart and a measurement … Continue reading About that 30 year Treasury yield
Commitments of Traders (CoT) in the 2-year Treasury note flashes contrary bullish Interesting positioning data on the 2-year Treasury note. As per our favorable view of bonds for a 2023 deflationary uproar that catches inflation obsessed herds off sides, Commercial traders are heavily long the 2-year note while large Specs are heavily short. That is a completely bullish alignment on a contrarian basis as Commercials … Continue reading Risk/Reward in the 2-year Treasury note is positive
And the plan is for a bond yield pullback from hysterical highs With respect to the long end of the Treasury curve, both the 30yr (top) and 10yr Treasury bond yields are below their daily SMA 50. Since inflation and the yields that indicated it have been public enemies 1 and 2, a continued pullback is probably needed for the Q4-Q1 seasonal party to have … Continue reading Treasury yields still on plan
NFTRH 732 excerpt discusses bonds and bond market indicators with respect to the gold price US Bond Market For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was … Continue reading NFTRH 732 excerpt on Bonds & Gold
The 30 year Treasury bond yield (Continuum) is 100% on the NFTRH plan The plan was set in motion when first the the 30 year Treasury yield (TYX) took out the ‘limiters’ (what I called the monthly EMA 100 & 120) and turned them to support. Then after the yield took out the next target at 3.45% we were on a hysterical spike to the … Continue reading 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated
Relief provided by an easing October CPI ‘inflation’ report the trigger It was bound to happen sooner or later. October finally showed an easing comp in what most people think of as inflation (CPI)* and markets that were ripe to rally for other reasons used the ‘CPI inflation’ report as the trigger. NFTRH has been on alert for a potentially positive Q4, 2022 to Q1, … Continue reading Q4-Q1 plan engages
The most risky bonds are out-performing investment grade This is just a guess, but as I recall the Energy sector had a lot of junk bonded companies in it and I am wondering if, due to those companies’ still-positive fundamentals (and valuation), that is playing a role in junk bond out-performance (Junk is, however, bouncing within a downtrend in nominal terms) as the Energy sector … Continue reading The bond market’s curious signals in corporate debt
FOMC will raise the funds rate by .75% on November 2 So says CME Group… And so says the bond market… …as the Continuum spikes to and through our target of 4% (+/-). The above represent the short end. This is the long end and it is just as impetuous. Well, actually not quite, given the flattened to inversion yield curve. But this is epic … Continue reading .75% hike in the bag
As the almighty Fed (of Oz) prepares to render its decision… Treasury bonds continue to hammer out interesting daily chart patterns. Some notes on this… The daily charts say one thing but the long-term charts (e.g. the 30yr yield ‘Continuum’) say another, speaking to time frames and a wider angle perspective. Markets, while chaotic this year, are playing ball with bonds in that there are … Continue reading Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential
It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile market, we have nailed the interest rate backdrop that the now hawking Fed has been whipsawed by and is trying to catch up to. But over educated eggheads will be over educated eggheads, and as … Continue reading 30yr on the way to 2.5%?
Rise in high yield credit spreads threatens recession A rising spread indicates disfavor toward junk bonds (oh so favored during speculative risk ‘on’ phases) and this behavior can eventually either grind its way toward economic recession or spike its way there (ref. 2020). Here is a longer-term view. Whether it grinds (2000) or spikes (2008 & 2020) a continued rise would eventually be a recession … Continue reading High yield credit spreads continue to rise
10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve is doing what it did when it led the inflationary hysteria of today. It is steepening. But the trick is to realize that a yield curve can steepen under either inflationary or deflationary pressure. At … Continue reading The new non-inflationary curve steepener
