Treasury Bond fund TLT is in a bull pattern *…
* From NFTRH 857:
If I see a pattern, I note it. But that always comes with caveats about what TAs who want to sound really technical call “pattern recognition”. That is a fancy way of saying “ooh look, I see a pattern that gets me excited!”, much like the TA who calls a freak Head & Shoulders with too many shoulders a “complex” Head & Shoulders. No sir, it’s a mutant that you REALLY want to present as something technical sounding.
With respect to “what’s ahead”, I mean a deflationary macro (favored) or an inflationary one (less favored but viable, pending trade war effects).
So yes, I’m a TA propeller-head seeing a pattern in a position I hold. And if the pattern does not resolve upward, I’ll no longer hold it. More than that, I’ll be planning for the macro ahead, which Treasury bonds are going to have a lot to say about.
Here is a picture of a harsh pullback, right through the neckline and back into the pattern, which is not broken. Funnily, I think I see one of those freak shoulders growing on the right side!
For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. You can easily subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal (see all info and options).
Keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar, or take it to another (intermediate) level with our free eLetter. Follow via X @NFTRHgt. Also, a new tier of service is coming soon, as NFTRH++ will offer technical trading signals. More info on NFTRH++ here.
Kinda weird that treasuries are so weak during SM weakness the last few days. Are they calling bluff, assuming lower rates is the goal?
Yes it is pretty weird, and not what I thought would be the case. It’s one reactionary day (well, a few of ’em). While I’m not going to hold TLT through much more of this, I will very likely hang on to my 0-3 year Treasuries and accept the income if yields go higher. But I think this may be a hissy fit in bonds that could be reversed. Either that or some orifice is going to open and make stocks blast higher, along with yields. Tough call at the moment with all the mayhem. Best to realize that for the moment, cash is paying that interest income. Could also be the old China/Japan bond selling angle, now that we’re at war with these countries. That’s a scary thought.
*
If somehow stocks and bonds continue down, where’s the only place left? It may be shiny and heavy.