Wouldn’t you know, T-bonds continue to posture to rally

Amid hysterical inflation headlines, Treasury bonds remain firm Of course, inflation is yesterday’s news. That was the news that bonds had been reporting since mid-2020 when yields bottomed and turned up, culminating with a breakout from the Continuum’s limiting moving averages and a possible halt here below the key November, 2018 high. Now bonds are reporting something else. It’s no surprise that as the inflated … Continue reading Wouldn’t you know, T-bonds continue to posture to rally

It’s almost as if bond market wise guys knew…

10 and 30 year Treasury yields break consolidation We had an NFTRH update yesterday discussing the implications of a consolidation breakout in long-term Treasury bond yields, as was hinted at yesterday morning. Those implications are both for near-term positioning and a bigger picture macro view, all of which is being furthered today. Now the little hint has become something that everybody now knows, after the … Continue reading It’s almost as if bond market wise guys knew…

The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this are…

The Fed, like the rest of us, is being directed by markets As shown in yesterday’s post the Fed is being directed in large part by the 2yr Treasury yield, which is rising to inform them they are lagging with respect to inflation fighting (ha ha ha, but work with me here). Other market indicators like credit spreads will actually tell the story of when … Continue reading The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this are…

Stock market correction: Thus far, normal

The September-October stock market correction is thus far normal It’s normal that… After a summer of excessive risk taking and speculation the stock market would take a correction in September as da boyz and da machines get back to work full time. The supposedly spooky Sept-Oct seasonal will live up to its reputation to the degree that it clears out the momos and other summer … Continue reading Stock market correction: Thus far, normal

Continuum: Right shoulder, present arms!

The Continuum continues to form its right inverted shoulder In the spring the NFTRH plan was for a “summer cool down” in inflation expectations and the inflation trades. This after noting that the situation had become overdone in the public consciousness, untenable to the (self-consciously inflating) Fed and thus, unsustainable. Inflation indicators then spent the summer backing off and the 30yr Treasury yield Continuum dropped … Continue reading Continuum: Right shoulder, present arms!

NFTRH+; macro signal engaging?

Long-term Treasury bond fund TLT is on an attempted breakout of its own. Ref. the previous update showing the Energy sector trying to do something similar. It’s a super interesting but frustrating market at the moment because these two are antithetical to each other. i.e. if TLT breaks out XLE should fail along with other inflation/reflation trades, at least temporarily. A breakout in TLT (and … Continue reading NFTRH+; macro signal engaging?

Revisiting the T Bond / Gold Relationship

We had projected some issues for gold when a short-term top developed for long-term Treasury bonds due to the bound at the hip relationship between the two risk ‘off’ vehicles earlier in the year. Here is the view of the 30yr yield and gold, which have been like looking in a mirror in 2019 (the yield going opposite the bond). So what of the relationship … Continue reading Revisiting the T Bond / Gold Relationship

The Bond Yield Continuum and Gold

Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward. If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts … Continue reading The Bond Yield Continuum and Gold

Who’s Leading You Astray?

From NFTRH 537’s Market Internals segment… “Who’s leading you astray, nominal Junk or its hidden bearish indicators?” Junk has since made a new high. Whee, party on Garth! Junk/Investment Grade is not buying it, however. Nor is Junk/LT Treasury. Notice how Junk bonds vs. higher quality bonds were in line with nominal Junk at the September highs. Now? Not so much. Garth is advised to … Continue reading Who’s Leading You Astray?

alice

NFTRH; A Review of Long-term Bonds/Yields (high priority)

A couple of subscribers inquired about long-term bonds/yields as there was not much information about it in NFTRH 524. I want to remind subscribers that much of the public content at nftrh.com dovetails with the subscriber-only content in NFTRH. I had thought that between the 3 Amigos posts (Amigo #2 is long-term yields) and several other posts on Treasury bonds we’d had decent coverage. There … Continue reading NFTRH; A Review of Long-term Bonds/Yields (high priority)

Yet Another Case for the Long Bond

In this post Steve Saville shows the long-term correlation between the 30yr bond and the Gold/Commodities ratio. Revisiting the Age-Old Relationship Between Interest Rates and Prices Almost as if Steve’s ears were burning (after my post tapping the breaks on the bond bear case) he offers up more reason not to be a full bore bond bear just yet. It has to do with the very … Continue reading Yet Another Case for the Long Bond

“Mark It On Your Calendars”

Just a note from your friendly Macro Tourist that June 30th is another big QT bond maturity day. Kevin Muir recounts the implications here… Mark It On Your Calendars Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the … Continue reading “Mark It On Your Calendars”