Beginning Of The End, But First A Bond Rally…
A recession (and bond rally) is oncoming, but first the stock market has to finish doing what it does... [edit] In the time it took to write this post the…
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September 5, 2025
NFTRH+; No Place Left to Hide? Wrong
As stocks remain under great pressure and Treasury bonds come under pressure, the question is "where to put your capital?", leaving aside shorting (speculation) and trading the ups and downs…
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April 9, 2025
Treasury Bonds Will Tell What’s Ahead
Treasury Bond fund TLT is in a bull pattern *... * From NFTRH 857: If I see a pattern, I note it. But that always comes with caveats about what…
April 8, 2025
NFTRH+; Decision Time for This Macro Indication in Bonds
With a bump up in inflation expectations over the last month, Treasury bonds have dropped, which is logical. If my analysis is to prove correct and the 30yr Treasury yield…
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October 14, 2024
NFTRH+; an appropriate time for these to hold and reverse
Looking at iShares bonds funds from 20+ year on down to 1 year, you can see that the bleeding is trying to stop today, and it really should stop around…
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February 17, 2023
US Treasury bonds are worse than Junk
Junk bond ETF outperforms both Treasury and 'investment grade' (IG) bonds As would be expected, nominal junk (HYG) is pretty bearish along with the rest of cyclical/risk 'on' markets. It's…
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September 19, 2022
NFTRH+; USD, Treasury bonds & market thoughts
The US dollar broke above resistance at the 2016 high (not shown on this daily chart), dropped back to test the SMA 50, popped back above resistance, faded to test…
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June 30, 2022
Wouldn’t you know, T-bonds continue to posture to rally
Amid hysterical inflation headlines, Treasury bonds remain firm Of course, inflation is yesterday's news. That was the news that bonds had been reporting since mid-2020 when yields bottomed and turned…
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May 20, 2022
It’s almost as if bond market wise guys knew…
10 and 30 year Treasury yields break consolidation We had an NFTRH update yesterday discussing the implications of a consolidation breakout in long-term Treasury bond yields, as was hinted at…
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February 4, 2022
The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this are…
The Fed, like the rest of us, is being directed by markets As shown in yesterday's post the Fed is being directed in large part by the 2yr Treasury yield,…
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December 16, 2021
Stock market correction: Thus far, normal
The September-October stock market correction is thus far normal It's normal that... After a summer of excessive risk taking and speculation the stock market would take a correction in September…
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October 7, 2021
Continuum: Right shoulder, present arms!
The Continuum continues to form its right inverted shoulder In the spring the NFTRH plan was for a "summer cool down" in inflation expectations and the inflation trades. This after…
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October 5, 2021
NFTRH+; macro signal engaging?
Long-term Treasury bond fund TLT is on an attempted breakout of its own. Ref. the previous update showing the Energy sector trying to do something similar. It's a super interesting…
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September 14, 2021
Revisiting the T Bond / Gold Relationship
We had projected some issues for gold when a short-term top developed for long-term Treasury bonds due to the bound at the hip relationship between the two risk 'off' vehicles…
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October 2, 2019