The Continuum continues to form its right inverted shoulder In the spring the NFTRH plan was for a “summer cool down” in inflation expectations and
Category: Interest Rates
Yield curve and 10yr Treasury yield: Our story since August 2019…
The yield curve and the nominal 10yr yield are at a critical macro juncture The chart attempts to tell you what I think without me
Let’s not forget the Yield Curve
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve has had its first interruption of the new steepener During this summer in which some of my indicators are at war
Reflation ‘on’? The Pigs seem to think so
Let’s get through CPI tomorrow to see if there are any surprises to the view on the effects of the Fed’s printed inflation and the
Could today’s down-to-up reversal in the 30yr Treasury yield have signaled the end of the summer cool down?
For a sign of the end of the summer cool down – and deflationary whiff (such as it is) – yields will need to reverse
Decision point
As long-term yields decline… We have a headline this morning that is so in accordance with the times. Where just a few months ago the
Continuum to… Continue?
30-year yield threatens to rise anew Here is the daily chart of the 30yr yield. Looks like a flag breaking out to me. By converting
The Market is Playing In Tune
Indicators and policymakers are on the same page The market is in tune if you can tune out the crazy goings on in AMC, GME,
Yield Curve Also Rises
Not only are stock markets and yields rising, but so too is the yield curve steepening. Just a note that a process that has been
There Goes the Long Bond’s Yield
I can’t shake the feeling that we are at a meaningful juncture, as the yield on the 30yr Treasury bond continues to bounce. It’s still
Yield Curve is on Schedule
The 10yr/2yr yield curve put in its flattening cycle low over a year ago and has been on a grinding steepener ever since. Long before
The Big Picture Continuum
The Continuum (monthly 30yr yield with the 100 month EMA ‘limiter’) simply states that the economy was weakening, as were inflation expectations, before 2020. In