Category: Interest Rates | Notes From the Rabbit Hole

There Goes 2.2%

The 30 year yield is below the 2.2% level. That is important because… …this… If this keeps up it’s a situation that is not positive

A key test by one important indicator is taking place now. Back when we were gauging the potential for the reflation trades one aspect would

There will be other factors to consider, like inflationary vs. deflationary for example. But a theme we have going is for a 2020 steepening of

We have pointed out that the “inverted yield curve!!!” hype of last summer was just that, technical sounding hyperbole for the public to get riled

I had a feeling the post-FOMC plunge might be a final shake out of the steepener contingent, of which I am a card carrying member,

[edit] My friend Scott chimes in thusly… “Oh, nice post this morning, all I can say and ever say is what Pete Townsend so accurately

This is just breathtaking, as the would-be steepener is now dead and buried. It has the feel of a final and dramatic move. A lot

[edit] I started a simple yield curve post with the markets very green and before hitting the Publish button see a red stock market on

Long-term yields bumped up today… This of course bumped my position in the T-bond bear up. It bumped my position in the Regional Banks iShares

With the June Jobs release behind us, the 10/2 yield spread/curve (CNBC) is left to do its part in indicating the future. It maintains its

Last time I looked at the CME futures traders’ projections for the July FOMC, there was no (zero, none, zilch) chance for a rate hold

The most recent tooth in this alligator’s jaw is toward the flattening side as the 10/2 continues to grind out a potential steepener for 2019.

Aye aye aye, the yield curve liked (or didn’t like, depending on how you view it) something that went on today after 2:00 US Eastern

Here is the 10/2 as presented live here. The spread is pulling back very recently but maintains a modest uptrend (steepening) for 2019. Here is

1 2 3 … 8 »