Category: Interest Rates

Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Public

CME wiseguys see at least .5%, favor .75% for next FOMC meeting

CME Group traders favor a .75% Fed Funds Rate hike on November 2nd Meanwhile, inflation expectations have been cracking lately. My thesis is and has been that the Fed is going make damn sure they exterminate this (inflation) monster they were primary in creating. Because if it regains life it will eat them alive and end their racket. For “best of breed” top down analysis … Continue reading CME wiseguys see at least .5%, favor .75% for next FOMC meeting

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Commodities, Interest Rates, Public

The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers

Commodities and inflation expectations have/had been rising right along with the long bond’s yield But some of the 30 year Treasury yield’s fellows are dropping off, just as the hawking Fed wants (needs). CRB index is still on trend, Oil has a chance to crack here, Industrial Metals (headlined by Doctor Copper) have long since broken down and the Ags are creeping a rally up … Continue reading The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers

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Bonds, Interest Rates, Notable Posts, Public

30yr on the way to 2.5%?

It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile market, we have nailed the interest rate backdrop that the now hawking Fed has been whipsawed by and is trying to catch up to. But over educated eggheads will be over educated eggheads, and as … Continue reading 30yr on the way to 2.5%?

Gary7 Comments
t-bill yields and inflation expectations
Inflation & Deflation, Interest Rates

What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?

The T-bill yield continues to ramp upward as inflation expectations pull back The 3 month T-bill yield (green) had been one of our guides demanding that the Fed get its ass in gear and get on the rate hike regimen it is now on. Evidently, it still is demanding. Quite demanding, actually. Yet the ETF that tries to represent inflation expectations is in full retreat … Continue reading What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?

Gary
Inflation & Deflation, Interest Rates

T-Bill yield up, RINF down today

The 3 month T-Bill yield is up while inflation expectations continue to moderate Despite the recent decline in inflation expectations by this marker (as noted in NFTRH 711)… The 3 month T-Bill yield (IRX, top panel), one of our guides that have compelled the Fed to fully tar and feather itself in its hawk costume, is up hard today while the inflation expectations tracker (RINF) … Continue reading T-Bill yield up, RINF down today

Gary
5 year real yield, inflation adjusted
Gold, Interest Rates

Real yields ramping, Gold (big picture) still aloft

The real, or inflation indexed yield on the 5yr is spiking In Saturday’s interview Jordan asked me a question about real yields and gold. Specifically, why is gold so relatively firm in the face of the spike in the inflation adjusted yield? Well, I assume he is looking at a graph like this or something inflation adjusted like it to view the yield, which shows … Continue reading Real yields ramping, Gold (big picture) still aloft

Gary
Bonds, Interest Rates, Market Indicators

New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve

Yield curve steepening, but there’s more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary. This new one well, my bet is the opposite. So to repeat, everyone is on one side of the macro boat and a post-inversion steepener usually comes with an economic bust. This market is rapidly … Continue reading New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve

Gary2 Comments
Inflation & Deflation, Interest Rates

New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)

Yield curve steepens again, under inflationary pressure Look, if we are going to kill the hysteria of the day it is not going to be killed in a day. It is going to be killed over weeks and months of grinding up and down, flitting brain cells trying to quantify and make sense of daily happenings while the picture churns so slowly as to try … Continue reading New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)

Gary
Inflation & Deflation, Interest Rates, Risk Management

The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in With next week’s inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way to a 4% long bond yield and maybe even von Mises’ crack-up-boom territory or just a more epic whipsaw and reversal. The 30yr yield is definitely in full frontal inflation mode at the moment. It … Continue reading The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

Gary4 Comments
Bonds, Interest Rates

In order to change the secular trend in the 30yr yield…

The 30 year Treasury bond yield is in its multi-decade downtrend until the November, 2018 high is taken out In early 2021 we projected the potential for an Inverted H&S, which would theoretically measure to the 4% area on the long bond, at the lateral resistance area noted on the chart. That would set a new trend in the secular picture for the yield and … Continue reading In order to change the secular trend in the 30yr yield…

Gary2 Comments
Inflation & Deflation, Interest Rates

2 years later inflation drives the Continuum to target

30yr Treasury yield finally hits target Ah, but it’s not that simple. Targets are not necessarily stop signs. It’s at the decision point. Will the yield do what it has not done in decades and break the limiters for real (instead of just poking them as before) or will it do what it has done for decades, which is to fail here? People mocking the … Continue reading 2 years later inflation drives the Continuum to target

Gary
Commodities, Copper/Industrial Metals, Gold, Interest Rates

Two macro charts

If you’re only watching market prices (and drama) you’re missing key points beneath the surface I have not posted yet this week due to being preoccupied elsewhere, due to having done a lot of work lately getting in tune with what’s going on across the markets, due to being bored with the idea of being the guy telling gold bugs don’t buy gold because of … Continue reading Two macro charts

Gary
Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates

Fed Jawbones mean business [w/ edit]

3 month T-bill yield is demanding the Fed raise the Funds rate And the Fed is listening. [edit] After this post was published another Hawkish jawbone came in the form of James Bullard and a call for a larger rate hike in March. CME Group Fed Futures traders quickly adjusted their expectations to a .5% March hike at the behest of the Bullard jawbone. The … Continue reading Fed Jawbones mean business [w/ edit]

Gary