2 year Treasury bond yield continues to diverge T-bills Well, this nerd is amazed by it (and several other out of whack macro indicators), at least. The 3 month T-bill yield (close companion to the Fed Funds rate) continues to steam upward in a divergence to the 2 year Treasury bond yield. Or put another way, the 2 year Treasury yield is negatively diverging in … Continue reading If you’re a nerd, you find this amazing
The 2 year Treasury yield inched up, then sagged The session ended with the 2 year Treasury yield up a teeny within the potential topping structure that we’ve been tracking in NFTRH the last couple of weeks. 2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates by half a point, indicates more hikes Yeah yeah, we get it. The Fed is hawking. The tardy Fed that … Continue reading 2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates?
30 year Treasury bond yield pulls back from 4.4% to 3.4% (on cue) I’d like to not so humbly note for public readers that long before the rising rates hysteria came near its peak prior to flaming out, this (now public) NFTRH update from last February noted a target at around the 4% level per a small breakout on the daily chart and a measurement … Continue reading About that 30 year Treasury yield
And the plan is for a bond yield pullback from hysterical highs With respect to the long end of the Treasury curve, both the 30yr (top) and 10yr Treasury bond yields are below their daily SMA 50. Since inflation and the yields that indicated it have been public enemies 1 and 2, a continued pullback is probably needed for the Q4-Q1 seasonal party to have … Continue reading Treasury yields still on plan
The 30 year Treasury bond yield (Continuum) is 100% on the NFTRH plan The plan was set in motion when first the the 30 year Treasury yield (TYX) took out the ‘limiters’ (what I called the monthly EMA 100 & 120) and turned them to support. Then after the yield took out the next target at 3.45% we were on a hysterical spike to the … Continue reading 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is hinting to steepen A hint sure is not a trend change. But a hint is a hint that is still in play. If the spread takes out the September high it would be time to pay attention to the potential for a trend change. Easy now; the word ‘potential’ is an important one. The question now is whether the next … Continue reading 10-2yr Yield Curve: a hint
FOMC will raise the funds rate by .75% on November 2 So says CME Group… And so says the bond market… …as the Continuum spikes to and through our target of 4% (+/-). The above represent the short end. This is the long end and it is just as impetuous. Well, actually not quite, given the flattened to inversion yield curve. But this is epic … Continue reading .75% hike in the bag
CME Group traders favor a .75% Fed Funds Rate hike on November 2nd Meanwhile, inflation expectations have been cracking lately. My thesis is and has been that the Fed is going make damn sure they exterminate this (inflation) monster they were primary in creating. Because if it regains life it will eat them alive and end their racket. For “best of breed” top down analysis … Continue reading CME wiseguys see at least .5%, favor .75% for next FOMC meeting
Commodities and inflation expectations have/had been rising right along with the long bond’s yield But some of the 30 year Treasury yield’s fellows are dropping off, just as the hawking Fed wants (needs). CRB index is still on trend, Oil has a chance to crack here, Industrial Metals (headlined by Doctor Copper) have long since broken down and the Ags are creeping a rally up … Continue reading The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers
It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile market, we have nailed the interest rate backdrop that the now hawking Fed has been whipsawed by and is trying to catch up to. But over educated eggheads will be over educated eggheads, and as … Continue reading 30yr on the way to 2.5%?
The T-bill yield continues to ramp upward as inflation expectations pull back The 3 month T-bill yield (green) had been one of our guides demanding that the Fed get its ass in gear and get on the rate hike regimen it is now on. Evidently, it still is demanding. Quite demanding, actually. Yet the ETF that tries to represent inflation expectations is in full retreat … Continue reading What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?
The 3 month T-Bill yield is up while inflation expectations continue to moderate Despite the recent decline in inflation expectations by this marker (as noted in NFTRH 711)… The 3 month T-Bill yield (IRX, top panel), one of our guides that have compelled the Fed to fully tar and feather itself in its hawk costume, is up hard today while the inflation expectations tracker (RINF) … Continue reading T-Bill yield up, RINF down today
The real, or inflation indexed yield on the 5yr is spiking In Saturday’s interview Jordan asked me a question about real yields and gold. Specifically, why is gold so relatively firm in the face of the spike in the inflation adjusted yield? Well, I assume he is looking at a graph like this or something inflation adjusted like it to view the yield, which shows … Continue reading Real yields ramping, Gold (big picture) still aloft
FOMC to raise the funds rate by .75% It’s actually not big news as last week CME Group traders had crept up to 20% odds that the Fed was going to go .75%. But now after more inflation jitters on the macro they’re cranked all the way up to 96% odds. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH … Continue reading CME Group considers .75% in the bag