The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working…
The 10yr/2yr yield curve is taking on a steepening bias Just a little report from beneath the market's surface. If you're like me and you want to know the macro…
Credit expansion, AKA more and more debt, into von Mises' Crack-Up-Boom would bring Stagflation at best, and Hyperinflation at worst in the not too distant future [edit] Today's better than…
Excerpted from the June 8th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#866): He’s at it Again Trump is badgering Powell relentlessly about interest rates. Aside from being great theater…
The latest edition of Trump on Powell hectoring: "He's always late", his "termination can't come fast enough" In Q4, 2018 during Trump 1, the president made a habit of hectoring…
In the shadow Trump tariffs, an interest rate cutting regime does not seem likely This man wants his Tariff cake and he wants to eat it too. The implication of…
Long-term Treasury yields are breaking out from a bull flag Back on December 15th, NFTRH 840 had this to day about the 30-year Treasury yield "Continuum": The 30yr Treasury yield…
The Fed Funds Rate is being guided down by the 3mo. T-bill yield, while the 2yr yield rises CME wiseguys are 95% sure of a .25% Fed Funds rate cut…
As nominal yields resume rising, the signal is an inflationary yield curve steepener just lately, but not necessarily going forward As for the dominant theme of the yield curve steepener…
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is poised to un-invert under disinflationary, possibly coming deflationary pressure We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world... ...terrorizing society into social and…
10yr-2yr yield curve steepener continues after secondary extreme inversion; gold holds steady Many have questioned why the gold price has failed to do the normal thing (decline significantly) in the…
Senator McCarthy: "I think at the end of the day we do not have a debt default" What, you thought the debt ceiling debate was not a Kabuki dance for…
A deflationary yield curve steepener is hinted at but not yet activated How do we know that the recent spike is a would-be deflationary yield curve steepener? We know because…
Jerome Powell speech on interest rates indicates renewed hawkishness; but is the Fed behind the curve again, as they were in taking up the inflation fighting mantle? It will be…