The real, or inflation indexed yield on the 5yr is spiking In Saturday's interview Jordan asked me a question about real yields and gold. Specifically, why is gold so relatively…
FOMC to raise the funds rate by .75% It's actually not big news as last week CME Group traders had crept up to 20% odds that the Fed was going…
Yield curve steepening, but there's more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary.…
Yield curve steepens again, under inflationary pressure Look, if we are going to kill the hysteria of the day it is not going to be killed in a day. It…
The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in With next week's inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way…
The 30 year Treasury bond yield is in its multi-decade downtrend until the November, 2018 high is taken out In early 2021 we projected the potential for an Inverted H&S,…
30yr Treasury yield finally hits target Ah, but it's not that simple. Targets are not necessarily stop signs. It's at the decision point. Will the yield do what it has…
If you're only watching market prices (and drama) you're missing key points beneath the surface I have not posted yet this week due to being preoccupied elsewhere, due to having…
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3 month T-bill yield is demanding the Fed raise the Funds rate And the Fed is listening. [edit] After this post was published another Hawkish jawbone came in the form…
Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two…
2-year Treasury yield indicates rising Fed Funds to come The link between commodities and Fed policy has been hit or miss (at best). However, when you add in the 2…
One indicator of the inflation trades may be starting to fail With the understanding that inflation expectations continue to be in post-FOMC recovery mode and that there are few danger…
FOMC is set to cease bond buying The worst kept secret in the financial world is that the Fed is going to taper the bond buying macro manipulation that kick…
The Continuum continues to form its right inverted shoulder In the spring the NFTRH plan was for a "summer cool down" in inflation expectations and the inflation trades. This after…