Inflation & Deflation, Interest Rates, Risk Management

The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in With next week’s inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way to a 4% long bond yield and maybe even von Mises’ crack-up-boom territory or just a more epic whipsaw and reversal. The 30yr yield is definitely in full frontal inflation mode at the moment. It … Continue reading The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

GaryMay 5, 2022May 5, 20224 Comments

Risk Management

The Best Position

With the post’s title I am speaking for me; a person who cannot possibly be a committed bull due to my idealist revulsion at what the bull market was built on, or a committed short, due to my idealist revulsion about what the bull market was built on. In other words, if they jam this thing upward I would be very bitter being short. I … Continue reading The Best Position

GaryOctober 24, 2018

MSM, Risk Management

Stupid Cash Holders

A so painful it’s funny post by Otto over at IKN brings to light how even the best and brightest can be made to look stupid by the markets (it’s not just you and me), as they utter words of wisdom and the mainstream media beams them out to the public. IKN points out how Ray Dalio made an unfortunate pronouncement for all the world … Continue reading Stupid Cash Holders

GaryFebruary 6, 2018February 6, 2018

Risk Management

Not at Odds; Long Miners & Profitable Today

I try really hard to have balance. Sometimes it works and other times it doesn’t, either due to a miscalculation on my part or a market ripple of some kind. Even if you’ve got the balance right it’s hard to make any given day go to your general script. But today I am long the gold/silver miners that I decided to hold (after moderate profit … Continue reading Not at Odds; Long Miners & Profitable Today

GarySeptember 11, 2017

Risk Management, Sentiment & Psychology, Stock Market, US

A Great Day in the Market! So What?

This is one of those posts that started out as a regular blurb and then it just wouldn’t stop talking, rambling on, getting a little preachy here, promotional there and ultimately, maybe useful to some people too. Sometimes you’ve just gotta write ’em and send ’em out into the world. Today was my best trading day of the year (although I didn’t actually make a … Continue reading A Great Day in the Market! So What?

GaryMay 25, 2017

Bonds, Risk Management

Junk’s Bearish Market Divergence Continues

Junk bonds have bounced with Santa (nominal HYG, top panel), but have remained locked in downtrend all through the bounce. Further, Junk vs. Investment Grade and long-term Treasury are still very bearish. So an ongoing negative divergence to the US stock market remains firmly intact. Continue reading Junk’s Bearish Market Divergence Continues

GaryJanuary 2, 2015January 2, 2015

Risk Management

Junk Bond Echos

Hey Bueller, junk bonds are doing what? Dropping. Junk bonds vs. quality bonds are doing what? Dropping. Heading into October junk bonds and ratios did what? Anyone? Beuller? Look, I am not trying to come off like a wise guy. I have been having as much trouble making sense of things as anyone else lately. These bond spreads have been bearish for months and yet … Continue reading Junk Bond Echos

GaryDecember 1, 2014