I try really hard to have balance. Sometimes it works and other times it doesn’t, either due to a miscalculation on my part or a market ripple of some kind. Even if you’ve got the balance right it’s hard to make any given day go to your general script. But today I am long the gold/silver miners that I decided to hold (after moderate profit taking) despite the probability of a reaction upon HUI hitting our target of 220 (right on the damn nose I might add) and I am also having one of my better days of late (so far, day’s not over).
I try to learn from the past, both recent and longer-term. I’ve learned that gold stock corrections always go deeper and more intensely than you think they will ahead of time. Ah, but then that is bear market thinking, isn’t it? Current work indicates that may no longer be the script. But anyway, it’s been a profitable last several weeks, not only in the precious metals, but all through the markets; and I tried to set things up so that the portfolio would have shock absorbers when the miners took a dump. While I don’t obsess on portfolio holdings in NFTRH, I sure do talk a lot about them and why they are held.
We are approaching what I think will be a time of change (Q4) but have no technical confirmations yet so I have a grand total of 1 short position on the broad market (Consumer Discretionary), no shorts on individual stocks and still hold longs, including global markets and commodity related items. The shorts are against gold and the Euro and also a lot of cash plus the USD long position, UUP, mentioned here previously. They’re not shaking me out of the long USD trade because it’s… you guessed it… there for balance purposes, not for me to be a hot shot market caller, which I surely am not.
Funnily enough, the portfolio did very well while losing money on the short Euro and long USD positions and today at least the port is going up while the miners lose money. I’ll attribute this to the idea that I may have taken just the right amount of miner profits. Anyway, I like the balance and will be watching and evaluating it daily. I really thought I might get hammered today. Instead maybe I can look ahead to managing the pullback in the miners (the details of which we’ve been discussing in NFTRH) with a clear head.
Balance, perspective and ego/bias containment. You know, the stuff I’m always going on about…
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