I have been firming a bearish view for the market when looking out to 2nd half September into Q4. In the meantime, it is silly season AKA the end of the summer doldrums as da boyz comes backs froms da Hamptins (I know I can wear you out with the jokes, but you try writing millions of words over 13 years and see if you won’t try to have some stoopid fun along the way).
But as noted in NFTRH 461 on August 20…
This chart shows what I mean about “seeking confirmations”. Who’s broken down? The Dow? It is above the SMA 50. Semis? What if just maybe that is a Symmetrical Triangle targeting much higher levels? Small Caps? Bear biased but no breakdown.
Here is the updated version of the chart that the above addressed. Do you see the 4th panel down? Do you see what the index in that panel is doing? Do you know that that index is a market leader?
It’s a daily view but much like we noted for the HUI index, if it closes the week in this condition bears are going to have something significant and repugnant to think about. Think about all the negative reinforcement to date, post 2008. It’s the market that refuses to die… so will think many bears. The ultimate reality may be very different but speaking of reality, in order to remain intact and thrive, you’ve got to respect it.
I have a personal thing with the Semis because I feel that I among a very few (and no one that I know of) birthed the SOX’ rally well over a year ago in the face of a then mega bearish technology expert who was thrown in my face and other market luminaries (perma-bear luminaries though they be). Now I want to kill the Semis because I think it would be best for the current preferred view, which is for a harsh market correction, not to mention gold bull phase. But I am man enough to admit the times I am wrong, and if SOX ramps to blue sky and the stock market does not roll over in Q4, well then, I will be wrong… and will stow the ego and adjust.
Sorry for the little screed flavor to this post, but there are so many cartoon-like buffoons in this market realm, like the aforementioned technology expert and the automatons who would unquestioningly follow him or any guru as if they really can see what the average intelligent person cannot, that make my skin crawl.
Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 40-55 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits, RSS or sign up to receive posts directly by email (right sidebar).