Don’t get me wrong, I think the stock market is entering a dangerous window whether or not this is the start of a real correction under pains of TiC & LiC. The C30, due in September or thereabouts per my admittedly amateurish cycle work, is only one of several things leading me toward that conclusion.
But speaking of “amateurish”, I have mentioned in the past – and still have stuck in my craw – that over a year ago a subscriber became indignant toward me (and quit NFTRH) as I promoted a bullish Semiconductor view and bearish gold view in the face of what technology “expert” Fred Hickey and other renowned figures like Jesse… what’s his name? the semi-famous hedge fund guy… Felder, that’s it… were advising at the time. Fleck too.
I had only worked with the Semiconductor industry very early in my former career, but I remembered how it worked. Strong bookings in the Semi equipment sector = strong Semi business to come; and that is exactly what happened. Fred Hickey, a tech “expert” who is from the city right next to where my former business was located? He was very bearish the Semis despite the evidence. He was bullish the gold sector, despite the evidence.
Look, I wanted to be bullish gold and bearish stocks too. But wanted and reality are two different things. You’ve got to commit to reality, not ego. Now here’s Fred still on message over a year later…
If you think the stock market is a very dangerous place right now, a very good place to be is in gold», says Fred Hickey
Err, you might have assigned that very same sentiment to the tech “expert” a year ago.
Why do I bring this up again? Because it stuck in my craw to have a subscriber follow an “expert” (the subscriber’s word for Mr. Hickey) and end up with bad advice (long gold, bearish Semi/Tech) and I ended up minus-1 subscriber even though I was doing my job in thinking for myself. I am dredging this up in the hopes that more people will see that there are no experts, myself especially. There are only independent thinkers and hard workers.
You remember me going on and on about Semi Equipment? Book-to-Bill ratios, especially bookings? You remember me suggesting Lam Research when it was at $85/share? Well now, a year later Fred slips this in. Way to nail it, Fred. Word I got a year ago is that you were discounting the Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill as next to meaningless.
So what, will ole’ Fred be touted as being the man who called the time bomb when it finally goes off? Of course he will. But this little part of the internet will have connected the dots about how one “expert” will have gotten his glory. It’s a sordid path and it goes right through the financial media promotion complex. The fuse on Fred’s bomb has been lit for at least a year now ,but whoever promotes it will in all likelihood forget to mention that part.
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