Hussman’s latest: Are we there yet?

John Hussman’s July market comment Are We There Yet? I have not read ole’ Doc Hussman in years but I’ve had him linked at this site for many years and this morning took a look at his latest article. Same old Doc. Outstanding financial market realism. When the collapse comes (and I suspect it will), don’t blame Fed tightening for bursting the bubble. Once “bubble” … Continue reading Hussman’s latest: Are we there yet?

A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path

As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish. Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706: We then covered the technically bearish state of the … Continue reading A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path

NFTRH+; progress toward the gaps

A quick update of the main US indexes shows the daily chart gaps on SPX, NDX & SOX, with the following notes. SPX appears to be in a small symmetrical triangle, which will break one way or the other soon. TAs (including myself) tend to view Sym-Tris as continuation patterns. If this one continues, it is small enough that its implication is only to the … Continue reading NFTRH+; progress toward the gaps

NFTRH 693, out now

The front page screenshot does not tell us much about the report’s contents because I was spent from thinking about details all weekend. But it does have some very helpful content, IMO, at this complicated market juncture. NFTRH 693, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market … Continue reading NFTRH 693, out now

A gold-centric macro view

As the gold “community” rationalizes gold’s currently low standing… As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold). In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, … Continue reading A gold-centric macro view

Part 1, on plan…

As the stock market takes the expected rally… Part 1, per Friday’s article, was for terror stricken, over-bearish investors to spring a sentiment relief bounce; likely a strong one. The ‘Smart/Dumb’ money spread (discussed in NFTRH 691) below being just one of many over-bearish spike indicators. This graph is two things, extremely over-bearish and thus, contrary bullish, and a picture of building pressure against the … Continue reading Part 1, on plan…

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Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

NFTRH+; a peek beneath the market’s surface

A few indicators to view the market situation internally as the Fed minutes hysteria fades. Junk bonds are grappling to hold the moving averages and have not broken down. Meanwhile, Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are not signaling an impending market liquidity/risk ‘off’ crisis. We have for many months been tracking the negative breadth divergence of the equal weight SPX vs. the headline SPX. That finally … Continue reading NFTRH+; a peek beneath the market’s surface

Garth, Wayne and… Moe?

Fo-Moe? Faux-Moe? Whatever it is, FOMO-driven MOMO is in play Manic forces likely driven by the fear of missing out seem to be overtaking markets. This environment of inflation-fueled speculation was created by the 2020 Federal Reserve in panic mode, while today the 2021 Federal Reserve is trying to manage us in the other direction according to the James Bullard indicator, at least. How difficult … Continue reading Garth, Wayne and… Moe?

Stock market correction: Thus far, normal

The September-October stock market correction is thus far normal It’s normal that… After a summer of excessive risk taking and speculation the stock market would take a correction in September as da boyz and da machines get back to work full time. The supposedly spooky Sept-Oct seasonal will live up to its reputation to the degree that it clears out the momos and other summer … Continue reading Stock market correction: Thus far, normal

Trust the rebound? Here’s one positive…

If you want to go through a paywall you can find out why Cramer is not trusting of today’s rally (such as it is). In a week with major systemic contagion hype coming out of China (e.g. Evergrande) and the US Fed officials conspiring to manage our expectations in one form or another, I’d rather keep a bias toward caution for now. But despite a … Continue reading Trust the rebound? Here’s one positive…