And I’ve gotta run. It’s been a busy few weekends this summer. Next weekend will be no different. But then I think my schedule clears up nicely, just in time for July 27th event. NFTRH 714, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ … Continue reading NFTRH 714, out now
John Hussman’s July market comment Are We There Yet? I have not read ole’ Doc Hussman in years but I’ve had him linked at this site for many years and this morning took a look at his latest article. Same old Doc. Outstanding financial market realism. When the collapse comes (and I suspect it will), don’t blame Fed tightening for bursting the bubble. Once “bubble” … Continue reading Hussman’s latest: Are we there yet?
As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish. Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706: We then covered the technically bearish state of the … Continue reading A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path
A quick update of the main US indexes shows the daily chart gaps on SPX, NDX & SOX, with the following notes. SPX appears to be in a small symmetrical triangle, which will break one way or the other soon. TAs (including myself) tend to view Sym-Tris as continuation patterns. If this one continues, it is small enough that its implication is only to the … Continue reading NFTRH+; progress toward the gaps
The front page screenshot does not tell us much about the report’s contents because I was spent from thinking about details all weekend. But it does have some very helpful content, IMO, at this complicated market juncture. NFTRH 693, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market … Continue reading NFTRH 693, out now
As the gold “community” rationalizes gold’s currently low standing… As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold). In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, … Continue reading A gold-centric macro view
As the stock market takes the expected rally… Part 1, per Friday’s article, was for terror stricken, over-bearish investors to spring a sentiment relief bounce; likely a strong one. The ‘Smart/Dumb’ money spread (discussed in NFTRH 691) below being just one of many over-bearish spike indicators. This graph is two things, extremely over-bearish and thus, contrary bullish, and a picture of building pressure against the … Continue reading Part 1, on plan…
A macro view for stocks, commodities and gold The article’s title is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day to day, week to week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow. … Continue reading Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?
A few indicators to view the market situation internally as the Fed minutes hysteria fades. Junk bonds are grappling to hold the moving averages and have not broken down. Meanwhile, Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are not signaling an impending market liquidity/risk ‘off’ crisis. We have for many months been tracking the negative breadth divergence of the equal weight SPX vs. the headline SPX. That finally … Continue reading NFTRH+; a peek beneath the market’s surface
Fo-Moe? Faux-Moe? Whatever it is, FOMO-driven MOMO is in play Manic forces likely driven by the fear of missing out seem to be overtaking markets. This environment of inflation-fueled speculation was created by the 2020 Federal Reserve in panic mode, while today the 2021 Federal Reserve is trying to manage us in the other direction according to the James Bullard indicator, at least. How difficult … Continue reading Garth, Wayne and… Moe?
It’s FOMC week. And who really cares? The analysis does not really care. It lays out the status of the inflation trades and the precious metals. But also the status of what I think a lot of people ignore, which is the stock market and its varied sectors, driven by varied macro conditions. The thing is to pick the right stocks within those conditions, assuming … Continue reading NFTRH 679, out now
The September-October stock market correction is thus far normal It’s normal that… After a summer of excessive risk taking and speculation the stock market would take a correction in September as da boyz and da machines get back to work full time. The supposedly spooky Sept-Oct seasonal will live up to its reputation to the degree that it clears out the momos and other summer … Continue reading Stock market correction: Thus far, normal
If you want to go through a paywall you can find out why Cramer is not trusting of today’s rally (such as it is). In a week with major systemic contagion hype coming out of China (e.g. Evergrande) and the US Fed officials conspiring to manage our expectations in one form or another, I’d rather keep a bias toward caution for now. But despite a … Continue reading Trust the rebound? Here’s one positive…
[edit] It started like a house afire, but then I faded about half way through. I’ll leave it posted because I like their NY accents, ha ha ha. Josh Brown and Michael Batnick. Must listen… everything from the economy to corrupt Fed officials and Congress members. I am listening now and thoroughly enjoying. Continue reading Uh oh, the economy is topping [w/ edit]
