smart money and dumb money market sentiment

A reason for the stock market pullback

Market sentiment all but demanded a pullback The media are talking about interest rates, inflation and the usual reasoning that they need to report every single day to advise Ma & Pa about why the market is doing what it does on every single solitary day. They are reporters, so they report. Who cares if what they report is just a word salad du jour? … Continue reading A reason for the stock market pullback

2 year treasury bond yield and 3 month T-bill yield

If you’re a nerd, you find this amazing

2 year Treasury bond yield continues to diverge T-bills Well, this nerd is amazed by it (and several other out of whack macro indicators), at least. The 3 month T-bill yield (close companion to the Fed Funds rate) continues to steam upward in a divergence to the 2 year Treasury bond yield. Or put another way, the 2 year Treasury yield is negatively diverging in … Continue reading If you’re a nerd, you find this amazing

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; the core concept of the 2023 play in simple terms

It occurs to me that I write a lot of words. It also occurs to me that important ideas can get lost in all those words. This little update wants to fix that with a brief explanation. Talk of inflation or more accurately, it’s end, is not inclusive of whatever CPI prints tomorrow. We are looking at trends, not events pertaining to a finite time … Continue reading NFTRH+; the core concept of the 2023 play in simple terms

2 year treasury bond yield, S&P 500 and 3 month T-bill yield

Putting the 2 year Treasury bond yield in context

The 2 year Treasury bond yield, T-bill and S&P 500 beg multiple interpretations I called the 2 year Treasury bond yield the most important chart in the world the other day to poke fun at those who use such hyperbole to make a (likely biased) point, but  also to illustrating a likely topping situation in the 2 year yield. Below is the 2 year Treasury … Continue reading Putting the 2 year Treasury bond yield in context

S&P 500 (spx) daily chart

After FOMC Nothingburger SPX still on plan

The US stock market will make an up or down decision on the very short-term while the larger relief rally is still intact Yesterday as they bulled the markets on the November CPI report’s disinflationary whiff (ha ha), I noted my short positions against SPX and DJIA and how the sentiment relief party may have been ready to resume. Well, not so fast. A reversal … Continue reading After FOMC Nothingburger SPX still on plan

M2 Money Supply is precarious; wither the stock market?

M2 Money Supply has started to roll over from an extreme high I don’t pay a lot of attention to M2 Money Supply (nor another Fed data set called Velocity of Money) because I think it is a big, dumb, dull instrument compared to many more sensitive indicators. But when I look at the M2 Money Supply graph I am struck by a few things. … Continue reading M2 Money Supply is precarious; wither the stock market?

s&p 500 (SPX)

The US stock market (SPX) is also… you guessed it, on plan

US stock market (SPX daily chart) heads for projected bear rally extremes Frankly, this is 100% on plan for the Q4-Q1 party, but I did not have a clear view on which gaps were going to get filled first, the upper or the lower (per the SPX daily chart below, which has been our guide in NFTRH each week). Hence my hedging, which I am … Continue reading The US stock market (SPX) is also… you guessed it, on plan

NFTRH 735, out now

Screenshot, inform the nice people about the generalities of the detailed contents of this week’s succinct (18 page) but personally very helpful report. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link … Continue reading NFTRH 735, out now

Ominous sign for markets: Jim Cramer gives a contrary bullish lecture

Jim Cramer is a contrarian bull, brave when others are… oh, wait In its review of the status of the seasonal rally that we projected ahead of time due in part to extremely over- bearish sentiment, NFTRH 734 noted the following, among several other angles from which to view the situation… The idea was for a market rally due to extreme over-bearish sentiment, the mid-term … Continue reading Ominous sign for markets: Jim Cramer gives a contrary bullish lecture

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; if you are considering shorting…

If you, like me, think about shorting (in my case it would be against some long positions) here are a couple charts and some parameters for consideration. The caveats to shorting are the bull-biased seasonal (until mid-February, on average) and the bullish post mid-term election period (on average). One neutral factor is the no longer over-bearish sentiment profile. Let’s look at a couple situations using … Continue reading NFTRH+; if you are considering shorting…

“Earnings Apocalypse not yet realized” (yes, we know)

The mainstream financial media advises that earnings are still okay The earnings apocalypse has not yet materialized From NFTRH 727… In support of this case [edit: a developing NFTRH market view for Q4 that is not expected by a majority], as Wall Street analysts busily adjust their earnings projections downward (I confirmed the downward projections by reading a recent report on the current earnings season … Continue reading “Earnings Apocalypse not yet realized” (yes, we know)

NFTRH 724

WIN “Whip inflation now”… That was the saying in the 1970s. Paul Volcker’s Fed then locked itself in a death struggle with inflation by raising interest rates as high as necessary to finally defeat it and provide Sir Alan Greenspan, the Maestro, a wellspring of monetary goodwill with which to begin creating the toxic mess we have today. Bravo sir! Today we are looking for … Continue reading NFTRH 724

Stock market: green baby, green! [w/ edit]

[edit] Well, that didn’t last long. Still, the potential remains in play from a sentiment POV. The stock market looks to open green today If you want to read all about it, you can click the image above. Okay, calm down. It was in the cards, short-term. From NFTRH 721: Sentimentrader’s Smart/Dumb money indicators agree [with a premise that preceded]. Smart money ate the market … Continue reading Stock market: green baby, green! [w/ edit]