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The Pig Won’t Crack

At least not yet.

With the Iran war driving market emotion, with the US winning the war in like an hour, according to Trump. But no, having to stay and finish the job, according to Trump, the stock market is not sure what to make of it. I will repeat my main concern if I am a bear (I am not); that is the war and associated emotional input.

I don’t like having short positions when everybody knows that oil is going up and stocks are/should be going down. Hence, hedging only, for me. While many individual sectors and stocks have cracked hard, SPX is doing what it often does in times of moderate stress. It is rotating its way to a moderate correction (I guess you could call it).

I am more focused on a buying opportunity (broadly speaking) than a bear opportunity. A table pounder could come at or just below 6200 and the 38% Fib retrace level of the entire rally out of the April, 2025 low.

But that is not any sort of done deal. That pattern top in the 6100s is all too obvious. The darn pig has not even tested its 200 day moving average yet. If/when it does that and if it fails, then we’re targeting the 38% Fib at 6175.

NDX also appears technically vulnerable. I am short (to hedge) both of these indexes and despite the bad looking technicals am not at all confident we will get much further decline. A drop and buying opportunity at the pattern top would be a gift. But I’ll believe it when I see it. If something goes wrong somewhere, we may see a hard spike down in markets, and that could clear the pipes, sentiment-wise. But again, pigs continue to levitate.

Maybe I have been at this racket for long enough not to believe bearish setups staring me in the face. Maybe a long time market watcher’s jaded experience is just ghosts of the past. Maybe these indexes will roll over as the daily chart technicals so obviously indicate they may.

Sorry to be so wishy washy, but there are bombs dropping, propaganda spewing from all sides and perceptions being managed. One loose jawbone, either from the geopolitical world or the Fed (FOMC this week) for that matter, and markets would react, charts or no charts.

Despite the big mouths and mixed messages of the TACO and his side puppets at the DoW and SecState, I prefer to keep an eye on what CENTCOM is saying. CENTCOM is saying the US is surgically eliminating military targets while not (yet) targeting oil and desalination plants.

I will make this clear. I am not in favor of going to war in the manner we did. I’ll spare you details that you already know. But it was unconstitutional and not in line with American values; values of the people. But I also believe that “success” can come of it. If so, that could be the ignition switch for a mother of a rally into Q4 and the mid-term elections. That would just happen to be a time period that the Fed is expected to roll over and play lap dog to Trump.

[edit] Later in the report you will see projections from CME Group that are actually more hawkish. While CME tend to blow with the winds of the moment, this bears watching as something contrary to my view as stated in the paragraph above.

I don’t like any of what is happening regarding a war that may have been of two men’s choice. But our job here is to be on the right side of it, and as things stand now and have stood to this point, the view is bullish. If that proves out to be the case, I want us to be in position to benefit. NFTRH is not a political entity, it is not an ideological entity, it is not a church. It is a “get the fucking market right” entity.

While currently hedged, I am holding several stocks in anticipation of that outcome. Diverse items like the Fertilizer plays (IPI & MOS, which I realize have been driven upward by war), Energy related (EQT & NXT), Tech/Semi (MSFT, NVDA, MRVL, ASML, ALAB, ANET), Healthcare (GILD, BMRN, MDT), and yes, some beaten down Software/Tech stocks (NOW, SNOW, ZM, ZS, PATH). Also, the Bitcoin income fund, BTCI.

As a side note, I was wondering why the Medical Device sector got hit so badly and why my MDT position had given up its gains. On Saturday I heard on the news that a Medical Device company was the victim of a cyber attack (war being very different in 2026 than it was in the past). ChatGPT then advised the victim was Stryker.

I am adding Medical Device companies in general to the watch list. Anything from ISRG to former holdings STE and BSX, and so on. It feels like opportunity already at hand.

Maybe a simple buy of the sector ETF would be the best way to go. IHI has already declined to test the 2025 market mini crash lows.

US Market Sentiment

Sentiment currently indicates that a bottom and rally could be coming soon. Fear/Greed has dinged “fear”.

Within the index Breadth is degrading, Put/Call ratio is elevated, VIX is ramping and Junk bond spreads are ticking upward (but not near an alarming degree at this point).

Investment managers are getting bearish, on cue. But they have further to go if we’re going to get a “no brainer” buy like we got last spring.

Ma & Pa continue inching more bearish. But no knee-jerk yet, as per last spring.

Bottom Line

The sentiment picture is aligning nicely contrary bullish. But using spring of 2025 as an example, there appears lower to go before a table pounder manifests.

Oh how sweet a big crack in the stock market would be. It could give us clarity on a buying opportunity at support levels along with extremes in negative sentiment.

Precious Metals- Gold Stocks (daily charts)

Please see the segment’s Bottom Line below. These gold stock buy levels are shown within the context of a sector that very well may not be, for a phase in 2026, what it was in 2025, fundamentally.

A couple months ago we began targeting the first week of March, AKA PDAC week, as a logical point for an interim top in gold stocks. GDX began to correct at the end of January, then rammed upward to a slight higher high double top during PDAC week (because of course it did). This top came amid negative divergence and was a bull trap (because of course it was).

GDX cracked the 50 day moving average on Thursday and that implies a drop to the 38% and 50% Fibs per the two grids, in the 83-85 range. Secondarily, the 200 day average is at 75 and rising toward that target range. The picture is bearish, with one bullish caveat; the double top made a higher high and it is conceivable that it could make a higher low right here. Among my hedging last week, were gold stocks, as noted might be the case in the notes.

But as with the broader stock market, I am looking at this as a buying opportunity in favored gold stocks.

As to those favored gold (and silver) stocks, let’s chart a few items (items I hold or have on watch). Buy opportunities are obviously contingent on the general sector “buying opportunity” view being correct.

I started a position in Au/Ag explorer/developer SKE on the first crack from the highs. I would like to add more at 26 with a test of support and gap fill.

I had to force myself to sell out of RIOFF (RIO.TO) because the profits were just too good not to claim. I was sad. Now I am glad, as RIO gets hammered. I’ll use US symbols as applicable, since that is what I am personally watching for would-be buys. The 200 day average is rising to a support zone and 1.65-1.80 looks like a buy zone.

AGI is a quality gold producer that I sold way too soon. It is already tapping a support zone just above the 50 day moving average. But personally, in order to buy it I’ll probably wish for a hard decline to 36.50-38.50. Otherwise, I am okay letting it go on its way. In this general correction I want to be miserly. I want to buy pain. That is why I am hedging and holding favored positions. So I can feel like a strong buyer, rather than a desperate one.

CDE, which is rolling New Gold (NGD) into its Au/Ag/Cu triple play including Silvercrest, made a double top and is in a solid decline. I hold NGD, but want to increase exposure to this triple threat. The 200 day average is at 16.05 and could hit the support zone at 17.60-19.40 before a buy is registered. This one I’ll also try to be patient with since I already have two positions in the combined entity.

KNTNF (KNT.TO) has taken a hard hit to initial support. Technically, it would be preferable for it to hold its higher low here after declining from a higher high. That is actually the buy spot for a KNT bull who would add shares in a vacuum (i.e. no knowledge of a wider sector correction). In other words, the chart says “buy here”, the sector may end up saying buy the SMA 200, which is rising toward support at 17.40.

Ag/Au explorer/developer/producer (assuming merger goes through) DVS was shown in Wednesday’s notes as being in a H&S topping pattern:

I want to show an example of a chart I am watching and hoping I don’t have to sell. It is DVS, a stock I happen to like, but will not ride a breakdown in. An ugly pattern has appeared.

Well, it broke down but I decided not to sell it (hedging, after all). I don’t see the pattern pushing it all the way down to its measured implication at 2.50, instead favoring 3.70 as a buy area. However, bad news out of the sector’s macro or the company itself and all bets would be off.

Let’s move on to some Royalty stocks. RGLD is another one I sold too soon. It’s another quality situation (e.g. AGI) that I am going to remain patient with. Come to Papa, so to speak. Papa would like to buy at 230, with the momos and cling-ons that pushed into stars of the sector being forced back out.

TradingView does not include the longer history of ELE, pre-merger with EMX. So here’s the Stockcharts.com version. As noted along the way, I like this one because the addition of EMX has expanded its royalty claims to a wider range of commodity producers. ELE has been relatively strong and it has had a habit of booming on sector down days with no readily available news that I could find. It did it for the second time on Thursday, then gave the gains back on Friday, which is also did previously.

This oddball could well hold initial support and/or the uptrending 50 day average around 21. But for me to add more I’d probably want to see a flash decline to 18 or lower. Again, its part of the reason for not having sold out to begin with.

TFPM is another quality mid-tier Royalty that has been relatively strong, which I’ve continued to hold. I would probably not add more at initial support at 34.50, but likely would if it drops to around 32 and/or the SMA 200 (30 and rising).

Using the TSX-V symbol for OGNNF (OGN.V) as the US listing does not have long history. I took another profit on this one (hat tip: Rich K), not because I don’t want to hold the stock. I do. But because of the chart. With a serious profit booked and then a secondary one as well, I decided to gamble on the suspect chart. I’d buy back like a maniac in the 2.50 to 2.70 range (CAD) if it gets there.

Premier large Royalty WPM offers an example about how many of these stocks could simply bottom and turn back up right here. It made a higher high and has dropped to a higher low, thus far. As a miser I want to see 113 to load up. As a realist, I understand that given the macro uproar, the gold/silver stock sector could turn away from its correction for a bounce at any time. Regardless, most gold stocks are still technically very much intact and would remain intact even at lower buy levels noted in this segment. Again, why I hold positions, but with hedging.

VOXR is a young Royalty I found and liked from initial technical and fundamentals views. The chart is currently among the best in gold stock land and I wanted to take the profit, saw this chart and said “nah, I’m hedged after all”. A loss of the (blue) SMA 50 could change that impeccable chart story. Longer-term, I’d probably add a decline to 4.75 and buy hard at 4.30, if applicable.

GROY is one I sold early on the in sector correction. It has gone on to form a gross looking pattern and cracked its neckline last week. I have no current interest, but the rising 200 day average would be important as it rises toward support. A GROY buyer could be looking at 3.60 to 3.80. That assumes the pattern will not play out (as H&S often do not).

Finally, let’s have a look at premier Royalty, FNV. It made a higher high with negative divergence, and last week put in the right side of an ugly pattern. The stock is technically intact here, as with others. * But miser Gary wants to see 217-222 for a buy.

* FNV, as with all others shown above would not be technically broken even with declines to projected buy levels. Those buy levels would come about after losing intermediate (e.g. SMA 50), but not long-term (e.g. SMA 200) trends.

Gold & Silver (daily charts)

From the opening segment, regarding a potential war outcome:

But I also believe that “success” can come of it. If so, that could be the ignition switch for a mother of a rally into Q4 and the mid-term elections. That would just happen to be a time period that the Fed is expected to roll over and play lap dog to Trump.

If the cyclical macro gets such a wind in its sails, gold could be pressured because, well, happy days are here again! Okay, going from Planet Zippy to Planet Reality, gold never was about war and its lame price action is proving that. It may get dinged relative to stock markets. But the fact that it has not performed well during war is a positive, not a negative. In other words, if the MOMOs and FOMOs had pile driven gold in the face of war we’d expect a much worse balance of 2026.

Stand-alone technically, gold has potential to the 4400 area, which it already tested. It could also eventually grind deeper, to the 62% Fib at 4155 and the 200 day moving average rising toward it. On the more optimistic side, it will be worth watching the 38% and 50% Fib areas (4700 to 4430). It would be viable for gold to merely decline to a higher low to the violent Feb. 2nd low of 4402.

I may consider shorting a gold price tool like GLD or buying a leveraged short ETF or even take some puts.

Related to the above and the notion that a revival in stocks could come about in the coming few months, how about a rally in the SPX/Gold ratio to test its big picture macro breakdown? Eh Beuller? It’s a scenario in play, given the geopolitical backdrop, which I lean toward resolving positively. If I am wrong about that SPX will continue to tank in relation to gold. But a bounce would be normal and if it comes, we’d keep an eye on the 163-170 zone.

Big picture macro-wise, the view remains the same. The stock market is cooked in relation to gold, and pending any war/Fed/relief induced bouncy action in 2026, maybe nominally as well.

Reference Monday’s entry in the notes:

“Upside gaps” in that note referred to GDX and many of its miner components. The bounce did not get near filling those gaps before the next downturn, FYI.

Silver bounced after that note, but nowhere near the wedge top. Then got dope hammered. It slid out of the wedge but sits at clear short-term support. Sure, it could resume bouncing from support. But the failure at the SMA 50 tilts the view to the negative. Technically, silver still could be looking at a higher or lower low to the low already put in at 64.10.

Bottom Line

We’re looking for buying opportunities in gold stocks. But if the macro swings the way of a positive outcome of the war and a strategic victory, you better believe that broad stocks may perform better. In other words, with crude oil flying around at $100/barrel and the miners having hit a anticipated “as good as it gets” moment, fundamentally upon Q4’s results, they are not viewed as anything special anymore. Not yet.

Gold and silver appear to have significantly lower to go. Buying opportunities as noted above may be for the long-term, but also could just be for trades, if they come about.

Gold is always good for its value proposition. But don’t extrapolate happy price outcomes for quite some time.

A lot will depend on whether or not America swings to the happy stuff. Right now it’s more gut than indications telling me that is what is ahead. In that case, I at least want to hold core positions, hedged and/or unhedged as needed.

The “happy America” story would be expected to be temporary if it even comes about. A pump for the mid-terms or something along those lines.

Commodities

Crude oil is what it is. A geopolitical football. It’s going to go more the way of geopolitics rather than the way of the financial macro indications the broader commodity segments will go. That may also apply to a less intense degree to critical minerals and as we’ve seen lately, the Fertilizer stocks like IPI, MOS (both of which I hold) and NTR.

As to the critical minerals, they are tending to be weak lately, in line silver as they often are. Right now it’s oil, Ferts and not much more. In general, as with the precious metals sector, the broader commodity sector will want to see silver outperform gold. Right now, that is not happening and the US dollar has been playing along. Here is a chart I created on Friday.

If USD breaks through resistance and the Gold/Silver ratio breaks upward from consolidation, there could be widespread pain as the 2 Horsemen ride and destroy liquidity. Especially in the precious metals and broad commodity areas. If they just hang around here for a while or decline, the story could be different.

As long as these two are poised for upside, caution is warranted on the general commodity complex.

FOMC on Deck (March 18)

The cherry on top of all of this is that our friendly market manipulators are meeting this week to discuss interest rates and other policy. Interestingly, CME Group traders have hawked it up under the guise that war has driven up oil prices, which have in turn driven up inflation. Dumb, but there it is anyway. Reality of indications can be dumb.

CME sees a lock that the politically besieged Powell holds steady this week. What’s more, after this meeting, CME remains hawkish. Heavily so, through July and moderately so into October favoring “no cuts”. This is a big change in forward view and it is despite the Trump-picked Warsh to be installed as Chair in May.

If this plays out it’s another negative for gold and the gold stock sector in intermediate-term, if we’re playing by the pre-2022 rules. But it’s a new macro and let’s recall that CME wise guys tend to be a wind sock, not accurate forecasters. The winds blowing through the sock right now see an inflationary macro and a firmer Fed.

In the new macro fear of a hawkish Fed may not impair the precious metals to the degree it did in the old disinflationary macro. New rules and all.

Portfolios

Last week’s report ended thusly:

I think we are generally bearish short-term, and whole hog inflation trades longer-term.

That still feels accurate, but if the war goes well and Trump gets a political bump, and if Warsh gets the political memo, we could have a party starting in the coming weeks or few months. Whole hog inflation trades are for later, possibly in 2027 and beyond. That was the original concept and it still applies.

If gold grinds upward relational to silver and USD stays firm (rather than both rallying hard), we could see Goldilocks appear for a happy drive to the mid-terms. It’s something I am mentally preparing for, anyway.

Portfolio

Gold is long-term risk management & monetary value/stability in a balanced portfolio.

Taxable “Savings” Account

In order of position size. It’s got a lot of cash, short-term T bonds, stocks I just do not want to get rid of, and associated hedging. It’s a savings account, after all, and will be managed as such. Conservatively.

The taxable account carries high cash levels as long as cash and equivalents are paying out. This is considered a savings account of sorts, rather than a speculation or even investment vehicle. The goal is to speculate around the periphery. In another market phase (e.g. post-correction/bear/crash), the account may get more in the game.

Roth IRA (non-taxable, no contributions)

The chart has formed a double top. I don’t like that. Hence, I am doing what I can in the short-term to address that. The end.

Cash is 29%, short-term & inflation protected Treasury bond funds are 39%, equity positions are 26% and bear positions are 6%. On the latter, being leveraged 2x (gold miners) and 3x (broader stock market), they are effectively working much harder at hedging, at about 14.8%.

Cash & income-generating Treasury bonds are at levels that are right for me and my real-world situation. Your situation is different. Cash will be adjusted as needed.

Refer to the In-Week Notes under the NFTRH Premium menu at nftrh.com for market talk and occasional trading info, if interested. Also, you can follow on X @NFTRHgt for notice of updates.

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