Another hot CPI fails to suppress gold With FOMC on tap with an upcoming .5% rate hike, gold got hammered and bounced back with a vengeance on ‘CPI’ Friday. The Fed will raise the Funds Rate at least .5% next week. So says not me, but the wise guys whose job it is to correctly anticipate FOMC policy. Indeed, a full 20% of CME traders … Continue reading A pivotal juncture for gold, gold stocks
This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day. After … Continue reading The Inflation Mutation
The screenshot is maybe being a little modest but really, there was not much to add as the markets are doing pretty much as expected with regard to sentiment and more importantly with regard to the macro view and the Fed. I did find it helpful, personally, to sketch out the game plan for 2022 in stages, based on the way the macro view is … Continue reading NFTRH 707, out now
I have a page with several chart based indicators for NFTRH subscribers to review any time they’d like in order to dovetail what they may see there with the ongoing analysis in NFTRH and their own alternate sources as well. One of those indicators is the GLD/RINF ratio, which measures the gold price in terms of the variables that make up ‘inflation expectations’ ETF. Here … Continue reading Gold vs. Inflation Expectations
As they ready the FOMC minutes to be inflicted upon the markets… We note that anti-inflation Treasury bonds are still in bounce mode and hence, yields are still in pullback mode. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe … Continue reading Just another ‘bonds are diverging inflation hysteria’ post as they ready the goons
FOMC finally to get a bit more serious about its hawkish stance After delaying and probably hoping against hope it would not have to do this, the Fed has to begin a rate hiking regimen in tandem with a QT program to try to mop up the inflation it created in 2020 that has proven to be oh so not transitory. The eggheads will meet. … Continue reading Eggheads tardy in doing the right thing
Of course, this is just one lowly participant viewing the market and the media/policy circus surrounding it. But Brainard did not just happen to pop out yesterday to explicitly state what the Fed minutes will probably imply. She was (in my opinion) sent out to jawbone the market in a calculated way. Why? Well, I am still opinion making here, but the way I see … Continue reading NFTRH; the way I see it
Lael Brainard jawbones amped up rate hikes I was doing something non-market for a while, came back and saw my holdings having taken a bit of a haircut since last checked at around 10:00. Sure enough, the news item in the form of a jawbone… You can click the clench jawed woman to access the article at CNBC. The question I would ask is do … Continue reading Lael (big) Brainard jawbones the market
Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble? [edit] With a note that another, less viable option is possible as well. That would be a ‘just right’ Goldilocks gently disinflationary option similar to the 2012-2019 phase. [edit2] A subsequent post notes another reason the Fed may be erring dovish, as the Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields (30yr has ticked the underside … Continue reading Fed not hawkish; hellflation or liquidation ahead [w/ edit]
The front page screenshot does not tell us much about the report’s contents because I was spent from thinking about details all weekend. But it does have some very helpful content, IMO, at this complicated market juncture. NFTRH 693, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market … Continue reading NFTRH 693, out now
3 month T-bill yield is demanding the Fed raise the Funds rate And the Fed is listening. [edit] After this post was published another Hawkish jawbone came in the form of James Bullard and a call for a larger rate hike in March. CME Group Fed Futures traders quickly adjusted their expectations to a .5% March hike at the behest of the Bullard jawbone. The … Continue reading Fed Jawbones mean business [w/ edit]
As the market rises, Fed jawbones emerge on cue But it’s more than just stocks, check out the 2yr yield below. That’s the real driver. You see, into the last FOMC meeting we had our stern warnings about speculating in the inflationary playground that the Federal Reserve cooked up in 2020. NFTRH (and NFTRH.com for that matter), ever on the job, called for this rebound … Continue reading Jawbones on parade
Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two cycles. Gold did not do badly either, while commodities languished on the most recent cycle (it was a dis-inflationary yield curve flattener, after all). Barring some kind of economic Armageddon, the 1st rate hike is … Continue reading SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike
I wrote the title before the release and don’t know what the January FOMC statement will say. My guess? No policy change (hold today, hike anticipated in March) with maybe a couple sweet nothings inserted or previous phrases altered just a teeny to whisper a little sweet nothing in the market’s ear about how if inflation expectations were to drop too rapidly (they have been … Continue reading Economic Eggheads of the oval table speak…
