The tardy Fed and the new macro

As FOMC readies its .25% rate hike today… In 2021 and 2022 we called the Federal Reserve “tardy” on several occasions as they doggedly held to their “transitory” inflation stance long after reasonable people (using the right indicators) would have given up on such a notion. In this May 2, 2022 article we noted that they had finally started to move… too late. Eggheads tardy … Continue reading The tardy Fed and the new macro

u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)

2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates?

The 2 year Treasury yield inched up, then sagged The session ended with the 2 year Treasury yield up a teeny within the potential topping structure that we’ve been tracking in NFTRH the last couple of weeks. 2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates by half a point, indicates more hikes Yeah yeah, we get it. The Fed is hawking. The tardy Fed that … Continue reading 2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates?


NFTRH 733 The holiday weekend includes a few time commitments, so here then is an online post version of NFTRH, in which I can get to the points more directly. Summary of the Current Macro Market Environment Stock Markets A bear market in stocks is still in force but some US indexes and global stock markets are putting the screws to the bears. These include … Continue reading NFTRH 733

Trey Reik on monetary policy & gold: A Call to Arms

Trey was an NFTRH subscriber back when he was a research analyst at Sprott, and has since gone on to form or at least become a major part of the Bristol Group, based here in MA. That was how I got to know him (by email, at least). I should actually meet him some day as he’s down the Cape and I am west of … Continue reading Trey Reik on monetary policy & gold: A Call to Arms

FOMC hot off the press…

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional … Continue reading FOMC hot off the press…

The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as … Continue reading The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]

As per one of my favorite ‘not taking the analysis too seriously’ market memes… …we note that global casino patrons are good and pissed, scared and downright apoplectic. Especially overseas as the US exports inflation to the rest of the world with the delivery vehicle being the chronically strong US dollar. The Fed is in control. All eyes on the great monetary authority which shall … Continue reading Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]

“Post-bubble contraction”

“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble … Continue reading “Post-bubble contraction”