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Summary

Precious Metals (bull market)

Correction still technically in effect for gold, silver and GDX/HUI. Bounce hit and pulled back from a would-be point ‘B’ of a would-be A-B-C bull market correction, with would-be ‘C’ down still to come. GDX logically paused at a normal but minor support area. Current plan is that gold stocks are “nothing special” over the balance of 2026. But reassert leadership in 2027.

US Stock Market (bull market)

SoH wax on, SoH wax off. Market up, market down. When the war enters is resolution stages a bull phase is expected to resume for much of the balance of 2026.

Global Stocks (bull market)

Still a mixed bag of relatively strong and relatively weak global markets. Global has bottomed vs. the US stock market on the longer-term picture. Subject to the war’s wax on, wax off inputs in the short-term.

L/T US Treasury Bonds (bear market)

The view is still for an interim rise in bonds/decline in yields if/as a bullish 2026 engages. As with other markets, bonds will have to clear the acute war phase first. Long-term, it’s a major bear market.

Commodities/Resources (bull market)

Commodity-related stocks should play a primary role in a post-war, bullish broad market scenario. We are no longer narrowly focused on the precious metals. Individual commodities are all over the place. Oil is a war-related wildcard. Critical and specialty commodity producers/explorers are favored. These include u3o8, Cu, REE, Li, Ni and eventually, Ag as well.

US Dollar (cyclical bear market, L/T still a technical bull market)

During the war, players have driven into USD not because America is winning (“duh”), but because the tattered reserve currency is where liquidity is found. USD will be subject to the emotions of the war, as with most other items. The more fear and strife, the better for the reserve currency as a liquidity haven. That has been the theme in the interim to USD’s cyclical bear market.

Comment: The correction did not bite as deep as the 2025 correction. A former and incorrect view of a potential A-B-C correction for the US stock market is off the table. We should be ready for what comes next, which is currently anticipated to be a mainly bullish back half of 2026.

War Fatigue

That is what I am experiencing. This geopolitical event, while horrible in human terms and wasteful of taxpayers’ resources, is really getting old in market manager terms. That is because I am not able to manage markets the way I want to. What is the way I want to?

That way is being contrary to human herds and their emotional inputs. Contrary to the news cycle. That way is in anticipating a “can’t get any worse than this” moment and buying. But every time a couple of stooges go to Pakistan to negotiate an exit ramp for the war that (IMO) never should have been, we get delay, hope, disappointment, more hope, etc. We get… noise.

[edit] Speaking of noise, after the majority of this report has been completed, we learn of another shooter in the US of A. This time at the WHCD. Everything is in a blender.

This waiting game is getting tedious.

Beyond the war I see a bullish landscape for many commodities and stock markets/sectors with the US mid-terms ahead. I don’t think Chairman Warsh will expose himself as a Trump tool right out of the box. He’ll want to build some credibility first (IMO).

But as we move toward the mid-term elections I expect him to have a little Bessent in his ear, just as I believe Powell had a little Yellen in his ear (whispering sweet “transitory inflation” nothings as he took too long to begin raising rates against the inflation that his Fed created and the government disseminated in 2020).

The point of the above is that it’s both aisles. Inflation was conjured by the Powell Fed, disseminated under the Trump 1 admin, and then made worse under the Biden admin. How do we monetary idealists win? For decades now, we don’t. We manage.

That would be the political macro. The boots on the ground macro is that as the war grinds toward its sloppy end, crude oil will likely be subject to significant price declines. But other commodities are likely to pick up where they left off, which is bullish in a world with ever clearer lines of division where materials critical to technology and life itself are concerned. Everything from AI Data-centers to non-AI related technologies to old meat and potatoes construction. Or in the case of war, re-construction.

Duh… Winning!

On the plus side, I think we are much closer to the end of the acute drama phase than its beginning. The TACO is obviously looking for an exit ramp nearly 2 months after declaring the US had already won. He’s getting hot under the collar, but must find a way to be perceived as…

I am sure it will come, and with the political pressure that is building, it will come soon. We may not know the compromises the US makes to its demands. Indeed, part of the “deal” may be for such compromises to not see the light of day. With that pressure building, I fear that Trump may take a deal that Iran loves in exchange for a promise to make it LOOK like a saving of face for the US.

Again, people are pissed, the polls are horrible and an election is on the horizon. If that election goes a certain way, a lot of people are going to be hauled in to answer for a lot of things. Not least of which is the Epstein debacle.

In my opinion, Trump desperately wants a way out but with an ego the size of New York State, he must come out looking good. I believe there is a chance that Iranians can live with that while retaining their demands, even if it remains covert. I don’t picture the IRG/regime caring much about appearances. I picture former reality TV star Trump being all about appearances.

US Stock Market

We have already established the bullish market internals in the form of the bearish XLV (Healthcare)/SPY ratio, the bounces in Staples/Discretionary and Growth/Value, the bullish HYG/LQD and especially SOX/NDX and SOX/SPX.

As for the US stock market, the broad target is SPX 7400, which has been the case since the breakout above the 2025 pattern top. However, the news cycle will continue its wax on/off routine until the war’s resolution. It could yet be volatile.

Back to the leader, Semi is flying and while a lot of this is AI related, for many years we have used Semi leadership as a market indicator to much positive effect. I see no reason to abandon that now. I have Semi/AI exposure via NVDA, ALAB, MRVL, ASML and QCOM off the top of my head.

As to the above, I realize that these holdings are the flavor of the day. But they are part of a diversified group of holdings. It is a reflection of my view of a bullish stock market. This is where I differ from purists and dogmatists (value investors, perma-bears, gold bugs, etc.). If for whatever reason I have a positive stock market view, I am going to position per that view. Not as an investor, but as a swing trader. * I didn’t like the reasons I had to be bullish in 2024 under the Biden admin, and I don’t like the reasons for it under Trump. But it is what it is. These markets are managed by monetary and political authorities, and that’s just the way it is.

* With the swings usually measured in months.

Diverse Stocks

In addition to the Semis noted above, current holdings…

Tech: MSFT, AAPL, PANW, FTNT, DDOG, ANET

Medical Device/BioPharma: ISRG, MDT, REGN, BMRN (w/ former holding GILD heavily on watch as it takes a significant correction to test its 200 day average within its major uptrend):

Financials: USB & XYZ.

Alt Energy: NXT.

I am not currently interested in conventional Energy (XLE) because of the war’s chaotic effects oil prices. But I do still hold Gas stock EQT (and have AR on low priority watch) as Gas is relevant to the AI data-center buildout. Which brings us to…

Uranium: This works as an alternative energy play and an AI buildout play. Holdings are UEC, UUUU, URNM and u3o8 holder, SRUUF. Rather than going further afield in the sector, I added to the first three items on Friday’s pullback (ref. Friday’s notes).

Other Critical Commodities/Materials incl. Cu (production & exploration): MP, SLI, ARG.TO, AE.V, TLO.TO, MMG.V, PGE.V, BTT.V, AIR.V, PMI.V (regarding exploration, I am doing well on some and getting killed on others, which is another way of saying “mineral exploration investor”).

On watch for buy or buy-back are SCCO, ERO, LYSDY, LAC, IDR, CRML

Cannabis: I just happened to start positions in GTBIF and GLASF due to their charts. Then came the news related spike and the post-news tankage back to square one. I also have the likes of CRON, TLRY, TCNNF, CURLF and CRLBF, etc. on watch.

But also, I think it bares a look-see to find out why the Shroom ETF might have taken off as well. Personally, I think the therapeutic aspects of Psychedelics are more valid than Pot. PSIL appears to be forming a nice bull flag.

Fertilizer: Profit was taken in IPI, which is back prominently on watch as it test support levels. MOS is held. These are how I will choose to play the Ags, which I have not been very good at trading directly.

Oddballs: BTCI (Bitcoin price tracker + income), RDDT

Global: In addition to ASML, noted above, China large caps in the form of FXI and BABA. I had added HIMX, but it took off quickly and compelled a profit-take. I want to find some time to look deeper across the globe for opportunities, especially if the USD resumes its cyclical bear market as the war wraps up.

Bonds & Cash: No long-term, no junk, no corporate of any kind. I am content with short-term Treasury and shorter-term “inflation protected” bonds/bond funds. Treasury is safer, pays income and the short-term aspect turns over fast enough, unlike risky long-term bonds. Cash, kept in Treasury Money Markets, is the safest bet, and it’s still paying income.

Gold Stocks (w/ a lean toward royalty and exploration for now): AEM, RGLD, ELE, TFPM, EQX, SKE, CDE, VOXR, DC, LGD.TO, and I am trying to buy back OGN.V on a pullback (former holdings CTGO, AGI, HL, RIO.TO, WPM, AYA.V, BTG among the items on watch). Which leads us to…

Precious Metals

GDX (daily chart) shows a sector vulnerable to a ‘C’ down, but at a minor support area, as we noted in an NFTRH+ update on Thursday as it was declining after a bounce. On Friday, to no surprise, it bounced again from that support area.

I’d like to make clear that I am two things; a macro-fundamental guy and a chart guy. We have shown the Gold/Oil ratio as a temporary negative fundamental for the gold mining sector. But we also note that the miners were leaders of the 2025 broad rally. As to whether or not support holds here, it may have to do with how persistently bullish the broad market remains.

HOWEVER… the counter-cyclical gold mining sector is not usually well correlated with cyclical stock markets and fundamentally should not be rigidly correlated with (cyclical) commodity sectors either. So it is possible that the current disconnect from the bullish stock market could continue.

Gold, on the other hand, has already completed an A-B-C correction.* While the gold price appears vulnerable, it need not do much worse than retest the 200 day moving average (4226 and rising).

* I mistakenly noted a possibility of a current A-B-(C?) correction (marked here in red) in NFTRH 910 because I neglected to take into account the one (white) that we already managed previously. A mental lapse. It happens, I guess.

Silver pulled an A-B-C of sorts, as well. ‘C’ is often a dramatic final climax to the downside and silver has not even tested its 200 day average (yet). The big upside distortion and subsequent crash has put a lot of inputs into the silver price that we should not try to define.

Bottom line, I think silver may at least get a test of the ‘C’ low, to which the 200 day average has risen. However, major support around 53 also looms and is viable.

I think that silver may be more relevant to the anticipated 2026 macro than gold, assuming inflationary effects come back into play amid liquidity operations to come, pre-election. But again, the price got so out of whack to the upside that it could simply be a “price” adjustment thing, rather than a “macro” thing that is ahead.

Also, there is still the prospect of ongoing disinflation, especially if the oil price tanks, post-war. Spiking oil prices are not inflation. But that is semantics. It’s what the public thinks that matters. Gold would very likely be stronger than silver in any interim disinflationary phase or liquidity event.

More Macro & FOMC

Fears about “inflation” the war-driven rise in prices of certain commodities and their knock-on effects have bounced Treasury yields a bit. The 10-2 yield curve has flattened under this pressure as the market weighs whether or not this will manifest in a more hawkish Fed.

Interestingly, CME Group traders now hold a majority view of the Fed holding rates steady into June, 2027! I’ll believe that when I see it. Especially since we’ve come to view CME as little more than a wind sock for the direction the wind is blowing at any given time. Regardless, the bond market – through its most important feature, the yield curve – implies a firm Fed, Warsh or no Warsh.

The NFTRH view is that team Trump/Bessent/Warsh * is going to find a way to stimulate the markets into the mid-term elections. If that view proves correct, it does not have to come through public facing Fed Funds Rate policy. There is this thing called QE, which is early in its progression (see below), along with its close relative, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) or more accurately in my opinion, Total Market Manipulation (TMM).

Now let’s delve back into the economy and its manipulated motor. Economists call the rising GDP as measured in officially calculated inflation terms “real GDP”. It’s doing quite well.

Nominal GDP is obviously also rising even better over the very long-term. Conventional economists and market managers love these pictures, and swear by them. Gold bugs? Not so much.

Because even assuming the inflation figures are real, GDP is only “real” if you believe that debt can continually be expanded in service to propping GDP. If GDP is rising, the debt required to sustain it is rising even better. Fact.

Circling back to the point made above, while it certainly is possible, if not likely that CME is wrong again in its forward Fed Funds Rate projections, even assuming the view of rates being held firm for the next year is correct, the Fed can expand its balance sheet to support the economy and markets once again.

Indeed, they have already stated their intention to do so, and you can see total assets basing in preparation for a rise.

The percent change from a year ago makes it even clearer. We are on the verge of a stimulative phase.

While history has taught us not to fight the Fed, and indeed I don’t plan to, managing the situation is not as simple as doing what market lemmings did for decades prior to the 2022 rupture of the long-term downtrend in the 30yr yield “Continuum”.

I realize I am not covering new ground where NFTRH is concerned. But it bears review and repeating for myself, if not for you. The message of all of the above inputs is profound.

In my opinion, in the near-term the Fed is going to operate more or less as it had for decades into the end of the secular bull market in bonds in March, 2020 (which was confirmed with 2022’s long-term breakout in yields). I also believe that a vast majority of investors, especially money managers and financial advisers, will also operate under the old rules. Lemmings be lemmings, after all.

While a more broadly bullish back half of 2026 is anticipated, beyond that the new macro, featuring a secular rebellion in bonds, will favor real (hard) assets, real productive entities and resource-rich markets. Capital will have to go somewhere. But I expect it to flee debt leverage within markets overly financialized by decades of a now-defunct macro and its associated debt shenanigans.

* Again, I expect Warsh to have a little Bessent on his shoulder, whispering in his ear just as I believe “too late” Powell had a little Yellen whispering sweet “transitory” nothings in his ear when he should have been fighting inflation back in 2021.

Portfolios

Gold is long-term risk management & monetary value/stability in a balanced portfolio.

Taxable “Savings” Account

In order of position size.

The taxable account carries high cash levels as long as cash and equivalents are paying out. This is considered a savings account of sorts, rather than a speculation or even investment vehicle. The goal is to speculate around the periphery. In another market phase (e.g. post-correction/bear/crash), the account may get more in the game.

Trading Notes

Trading account is patiently all in cash, retaining its 2026 profits and laying in wait for the next perceived ‘no-brainer’. Of course there is no such thing. It’s the markets. But I shall wait like a mother hen if I have to for the next clear, low risk/high reward opportunity. Whether it be bearish or bullish, coming soon or after a long wait.

Roth IRA (non-taxable, no contributions)

The chart ticked a new high last week before easing a bit.

The 2026 YTD chart shows a breakout above the previous two highs. My goal is to protect that breakout. But it will be tricky.

Cash is 16%, short-term & inflation protected Treasury funds are 39%, long equity is 36% and leveraged short hedges are 9%, but doing the work of 20+%. There are no notes since the portfolio’s diversity was already discussed earlier in the report.

Cash & income-generating Treasury bonds are at levels that are right for me and my real-world situation. Your situation is different. Cash will be adjusted as needed.

Refer to the In-Week Notes under the NFTRH Premium menu at nftrh.com for market talk and occasional trading info, if interested. Also, you can follow on X @NFTRHgt for notice of updates.

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Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) is a weekly market report in which we provide analysis on financial markets.  We make every effort to provide accurate and high quality content, but this analysis ultimately represents our opinions and these opinions are provided without warranty or guarantee of any kind.  See full terms & conditions of service under the ‘About’ heading in the main menu.