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A request on behalf of a loved one with a passion for French culture, and much to offer

NFTRH.com and NFTRH Premium have a global reach, with readers from the U.S., Canada, Europe, Australia (in that order) and many other countries.

In this case I am asking French citizens/passport holders or immigration attorneys/experts to please contact me, if you would be so kind. I have a question/request for you. Thank you so much in advance!

A Health Challenge

I am not the type to go around publicly broadcasting my cancer challenge, or any other challenges I and my family may encounter in life. I provide the NFTRH service and public writing as always, with little personal stuff woven in. Just the facts, Ma’am! But because my schedule over the next 2+ months will be affected to a minor degree, I want to let you know where I’m at.

As you may remember, I had surgery on February 28th, due to prostate cancer that had progressed a wee bit further than you’d comfortably like to see. I remember sitting there in my hospital bed feeling like I’d been run over by a truck, writing the NFTRH edition for that week on a laptop. Trump was opening his yap it seemed like twice a day and markets were all over the place. We managed it! And we managed it well from that day to this very day. I am focused, baby.

Ah, but a subsequent PSA test showed something was still there, cancer-wise. PET scan showed a local occurrence that had gotten out of the prostate. So beginning in August I’ve been on ADT therapy (androgen deprivation), which has driven PSA way down, and will be starting Radiation on September 29th, 5 days a week for 8 weeks to eliminate the bugger. That’ll be the period when you may or may not notice me absent during the week at times I’d normally be present (late morning/early afternoon). Then again, you may not notice any difference.

There will be some after-effects from the ADT/Rad combo, but I should be good to go by December and I’ll be back to normal, personally, next spring/summer. I expect to kick this thing’s ass right out of my system (prognosis is good) and have a great 2026 (the ongoing decline of my country notwithstanding).

In a related note, I still look forward to creating a public Podcast where I can talk about market views & TA myself and importantly, interview interesting guests like two geologists in the subscriber base who preside over prospective mineral properties. That would be quite an education for me personally, and hopefully for listeners. I think the junior exploration/mining space has quite a phase ahead, over the next couple years. Other guests with other specialties will also be featured, if/as the Pod progresses.

FOMC: U.S. Stock Market Pivot Point Or Melt-Up?

Here it gets tricky. The market is aligning for a melt-up, from the standpoint of the SOX>NDX>SPX leadership chain. Now, not only has NDX/SPX remained biased positive, but Semi is postured to potentially lead both of its Amigos again.

This draws a personal thought: “Err, maybe I should have some Semi”, beyond Semi/AI enabler ALAB (watch list includes ACLS, ASML, AMAT, ENTG, even QCOM, which has immediate challenges but future diversification). There are likely others. These are just off the top of my head.

Back to the indication of the chain. The stock market is bullish in its leadership until said leadership aborts.

On the other side of the fence, the XLV/SPY ratio is asking if risk is going off. The answer is “no, not at this time”.

Both charts above lend a hand to one of the following two views, while seeming to exclude a view that the markets will decline into FOMC.

1. The market continues to ramp upward into FOMC and sells the news after (within minutes, hours, days). Or…
2. The market remains bullish into FOMC and then gets even more bullish after, with a blow-off high out ahead in the coming weeks.
3. I should add here a point 3, that would be Gary is completely wrong to expect a market high in Q4. So many macro indications are begging for a correction, even a bear market. But until the likes of SOX >NDX>SPX and XLV/SPY, along with credit spreads, etc. start to go bad we remain on the same tack we have been on for much of the time since projecting and managing the sentiment rally that sprang from massively over-bearish conditions back in the spring. That tack is, speaking personally, “week to week”.

Bottom Line

The U.S. stock market is bullish, and with a country becoming angrier and more split, in enemy making mode (WE are righteous, THEY are evil), with the flames fanned by the man in charge of the whole mess, with economic signals fading, it appears that the only thing buoying the Good Ship Lollipop is focus on a Fed about to embark on a dove campaign.

But I will say it again. The Fed will go dovish for a reason. And until Trump replaces Powell with a hand picked dupe in 2026, that reason is likely to be poor economic signaling.

This chart lays in wait. Dog gone it, the historicals could fail to work “this” time. That often happens with historical analogs. But this analog is not just a pattern on an index or stock chart. This analog includes several markets (t-bill yield, 2yr yield, SPX, Fed Funds and most importantly the relationships between all these moving parts), which is internal to the bond market.

If the bond market is functioning as it traditionally has, danger is ahead. However, if we are going to note on the 30yr yield “Continuum” chart (below, in the Precious Metals segment) “new macro, new rules?” we can also ask that question here. We should be consistent, eh? Who knows what kind of bond market manipulation lay ahead with this president, Treasury Sec and future lapdog Fed chief?

But at face value, this chart indicates danger. That should be respected.

Hence, more reason remain “week-to-week” (speaking personally) and continue to keep tabs on indications not only like SOX >NDX>SPX and XLV/SPY above, but indications of internal market behavior like credit spreads.

Currently junk/quality spreads are calm. In the precious metals I am white knucklin’ it (enduring the momentum and FOMO), baby! In the broads I am week-to-week as long as calm pictures like this do not start to erupt. This chart is on the floor, which means that today at least, players are calm, collected, confident and speculating. In other words, risk is ON.

Now it is FOMC week. 93% of wise guys predict a .25% cut. That’s what I think is in the offing as well. If there were a lot more than 7% traders expecting a .5% cut, I’d say the ingredients could be in place for a disappointment if the Fed only goes .25%. But that is what the market is expecting, so it is not likely that expectation of .5% would be a danger point, as the projections stand now.

Market Sentiment

I’m not going to waste time and space with pictures. The sentiment picture is as it has been for weeks, even months now. It is mildly over-bullish and nowhere near dangerous “bull killer” territory. CNN Fear/Greed is neutral biased to over-bullish. NAAIM biased that way, as are Smart/Dumb money indicators. The little guy, AAII actually retreated further last week.

If the bull wants to keep going, sentiment is not standing in the way. It is possible we may need an “ALL-IN” bull killer before we, well, kill this thing. That could summon the “melt-up” scenario noted earlier.

Stocks

So on a week-to-week basis, onward I go, holding/trading what I call “bull stocks”. Since the April lows the portfolio has held bullers like NET, CVNA, RDDT, GOOGL, ANET, ZS, NVDA, META and others. Today it holds a few and is on the lookout for more.

For better or worse, my mode has been to take profits on the high fliers and replant with the laggards. Currently held examples being FTNT, AAPL, FSLY. Though BABA is a Chinese stock, I consider it a “bull stock” too. If USD breaks down again (see Global & USD segment below) I’ll look for more global positions, with ASML and others on watch. Literally a world full of trade opportunities.

As a final note, a few relatively defensive positions are held as well. Healthcare (XLV, MDT & GILD) and Telco (VZ).

Precious Metals

Silver hit the target of 42. That was based on a weekly chart pattern. Okay, we know this. Target in. Just like HUI’s 500 target got put in (and exceeded).

Silver’s monthly chart has not become as overbought as it tends to do on major up moves. It’s silver remember. Also recall the bowl’s target of 46.

But the Lone Ranger and his trusty horse, Silver, are staring at the 2011 high. On the right side of the chart, the silver price appears poised to take it out. At that point we could start seeing a strenuously overbought situation.

Since our original plan was for caution (not just in the precious metals) in Q4, there is enough runway, time-wise, for silver to perhaps hit 46 or even claim new highs in the coming weeks or couple months.

Silver is still leading gold in the intermediate-term, since we ID’d and managed a coming low and rally in the Silver/Gold ratio (SGR), using the 2020 example as a guide. I have highlighted 2020 along with two other examples that saw a final plunge and spike in the SGR that failed back into the ongoing downtrend.

The major trend is still down. Got to call what is, folks. Not what we – or at least the most aggressive silver bugs – want to see. Could this ratio change trend? Sure could. Has it changed trend? Absolutely not. I would have patience and perspective with the process if you’re looking for silver to take leadership over gold for real. If we’re interpreting honestly, the SGR is approaching a point that has capped its rallies in the past.

So here too, it’s a week-to-week situation for silver’s leadership over gold. Dialing in the view to daily and adding SGR’s companion, the TSX-V/TSX ratio, we see the TSX-V/TSX still trending up for all of 2025 and the SGR trending up less spectacularly since May. As long as these remain intact, we are still on a short-term bull phase in many markets, especially commodity/resources and the more speculative precious metals stocks.

Charts like this can be used in conjunction with the likes of the Junk bond credit spreads displayed above as early internal indications of calm bullishness (currently) or risk going off and mayhem (some point in the future).

Nominally, da ‘V’ (at 879) is progressing as it tries to eat through the resistance zone at 850 (+/-). We also need to balance caution with the idea that this index has been wallowing in the wilderness for 18 years and if it truly has had enough of that, it is supportive for precious metals stocks (esp. smaller, more speculative stocks, AKA my “basket” items), commodities/resources and certainly not a negative indicator for the broad markets either.

Gold is ticking new highs per this overbought monthly chart. I am not selling my gold any time soon. Period. I may not sell it until a new, more honest monetary system is in place. I may never sell it. Just pass it along.

We have talked so much about a new macro phase, and gold is the poster boy of that phase, in my opinion. Silver will flash and dash. Bitcoin will either go to $1,000,000 or get blown up with other speculative “assets”, but gold is the anchor of the new macro. As it has always been the anchor in the previous macro. It’s just that back then its price was limited and/or marked down because confidence was high more often than not.

Check out the log scale monthly. There goes the upper tine of the fork, after the gold price chewed away at it for several months.

HUI’s monthly chart just laughed at my target and like silver, probably wants a new high in the new macro.

“New macro” you say (for the 1000th time)? Yes, new macro. This weekly chart of gold ratios shows the metal having bottomed (cyclical confidence topped) in and around 2022. That was the year that Treasury yields busted upward, breaking the Continuum’s decades old trend. That was a stark sign of a lack of confidence as portrayed by the all important bond market.

The macro has shifted to gold.

Hence, gold miners, which leverage gold’s standing in the macro are absolutely ass-launching. Here’s the log scale version of the HUI monthly chart above. As it stands now we’ve got a channel buster.

Easy now, that monthly candle can easily close September at a failed breakout. Let’s be cautious about that but not fearful when everything is hitting on all cylinders amid excellent fundamentals. WE have the ball, not Team Evil-doer (cabal, banksters, Treasury/Fed eggheads, etc.). We have the ball because we have honesty on our side. Honesty of analysis that is willing to be wrong (and adjust), but certainly not going to apologize for being right.

Interlude

I realize I may be sermonizing. But in a time when every lunatic on the left and right has an opinion that happens to disgust me (at worst) or make me shake my head (at best), this lunatic will present his own view.

A dishonest monetary system has created the divides that have in turn created the dangerous bullshit going on now where Americans hate other Americans. Thank you Federal Reserve (money creation) and both aisles of Government (money spending in favored areas). In other words, a financial and political system geared to rich richer and middle/poor, screw you. Also, boomers richer as we sit on our aging butts in our bubble valued homes. “Young, screw you” says the system.

While I hate what our country is becoming, I am super interested in it and will continue to try to capitalize on it. The macro, which is more informed (or at least distorted) by the social/political environment in recent years, is playing out as anticipated. “Play it” is all I can do because this is my job; to define what I see in the markets for a group of people to consider. We’ve done well into and during this phase and in my opinion, much more often than not since 2008.

But we need to continue to operate under the right assumptions and without political bias. Politics did not instigate the evil, as most people seem to think. The monetary system did the evil, through inflationary policy. A rancid political backdrop has piggybacked on that. Keeping a view on market indications while tuning out politics has been of great benefit to this service. Now politics are ramming their way into the macro picture as well. So we need to factor that, hopefully without emotion, despite personal views. I have a lot of emotion. But not in these pages. In these pages I am going to continue to be one cold motherfucker.

The above was an interlude that came out of nowhere. So I labeled and highlighted it as something separate. Let’s get back to the precious metals. As you can see, this fundamental indication is right in line as well. In their best suit, the gold miners are counter-cyclical/anti-inflationary. It’s interesting how Gold/RINF waited around consolidating while HUI caught up to its funda.

So HUI has been casting off 13 years of ignominy and it is relentlessly moving higher, like a beach ball released beneath the surface. Overbought, too much momo! WHITE KNUCKLES!!

But 13 years. That depressing period, while the stock market mainly marched higher to bubbly over-valuation, is the fuel for what is going on now. The miners will get a correction. It will probably be scary. But this is a launch into a real bull market that most will not understand. But we will. We do the work.

You may notice that since this chart was last presented HUI/SPX went from “on the verge” of a breakout to a completed breakout in SPX terms. This while Gold/SPX appeared ready to end its downward consolidation. Well, that looks like an even better prospect now.

What happens if an already accelerating HUI gains a tailwind from a resumed up move in Gold/SPX? It’s worth considering. With a hedge here or there, I’m going to make like Old Turkey and sit like a mother hen, week-to week, but with the understanding that we’re on a bull market. A real one, this time. Not the fake ones fetishized by so many bugs in the past.

Here is the big macro chart that includes the longer view of the HUI/Gold ratio. Everything appears well in place per the 2001-2003 analog. Except that the Gold/Silver ratio has turned down. Of course, that is not bearish for the miners in the here and now. It’s usually bullish.

But it bears watching because there is a play where silver could top out in gold terms (ref. the SGR work above) and the USD could make an interim low (doubtful its final low) to spring a broad correction and/or liquidity problem. The economy is weakening right along with inflation signals, after all.

That noise aside, this chart firms up my inner Old Turkey (“it’s a bull market, you know”). The Fed is set to cut the Funds rate, and that most often correlates with a gold stock bull. 2007-2008 you ask? The gold miners crashed while the Fed was in rate cut mode, but that was after 4 years of bad fundamentals and a gold stock bubble amid a cyclical inflationary backdrop. There is no such thing in play today.

What is in play is the reflection of a phase change that roughly began when the Continuum gave us a lovely pictorial view of the change…

“New macro, new rules” indeed. New leader as well. Amazingly, gold at 3600 is only constructively working on its base in relation to the S&P 500. So, tell me how many years the cycle may have to go?

This big picture makes me want to short stocks in the worst way. But there is the chance that nominal SPX will use the 1970s playbook and keep up lame appearances rather than drop to any large degree. But man, gold could actually validate those outlandish projections to 10,000 or more if they manage to keep SPX on life support.

Folks, it’s just a chart. But it’s a chart that blows me away as long as it keeps its current message in play. That message is that SPX/Gold is on a bounce, a possible “last chance power drive” bounce before stock bulls get left behind and watch the honest monetary/insurance/risk management instrument put on an epic bull move relative to stocks. That would of course actually be a bear move in public confidence.

Global & USD

Global stock markets are on balance still bullish (Captain Obvious). The balance of global markets (ex-US), as represented by ACWX, are bumping up to the channel top.

The world is watching the U.S. go to (cultural) war with itself and at least thinking about out-performing again. ACWX/SPY would need to clear the noted resistance zone to go “bull” again.

Of course, that prospect would be greatly aided if USD (DXY) does what its chart implies, which is to proceed downward after an A-B-C upward correction that reset RSI from oversold. RSI and MACD do not look supportive at all. Will USD “buy the news” of FOMC this week? Uncle Buck may have ideas of his own, but the daily chart does not think so.

Commodities & “Basket” Items

As for commodities, my personal view remains the same. Generally, the segment is supported by silver rising in gold terms. Also by TSX-V rising in TSX terms.

I am continuing to focus on areas like Rare Earth (profits taken on IDR & LYSDY, MP increased on pullback and UUUU added), Uranium (UUUU held, NXE on watch) and Plat Group Metals. But again, until the Silver/Gold ratio makes some kind of trend change, I’m making sure to take profits and limit losses in the space. Copper miner FCX was added on a hard drop after an operational issue. Fertilizer play IPI was added for the third time after it dropped back toward support after I sold a hard bounce.

The “basket” includes a couple Nickel drillers (TLOFF & “me too!” guy BITTF), a couple multi-metallic guys (MMNGF & PGEZF), and an Au/Cu hole driller (AMEGF). Also held is royalty play ELEMF, which after merging with EMX, has a higher ratio of diverse commodities to precious metals now.

As far as commodities go, I am definitely on the week-to-week theme. But if USD gets cracked again more commodity items could start bulling. If the Silver/Gold ratio fails and USD bulls, it would not be good.

Portfolio

Gold is and has been viewed as long-term risk management & monetary value/stability in a balanced portfolio.

Taxable Account

In order of position size. I am trying not to take too many taxable profits just yet. As per the IRA notes below, I will add more items (including global if USD fails and a broad melt-up looks likely). At this time I am not being greedy and am managing risk. Week-to-week.

The taxable account carries very high cash levels as long as cash and equivalents are paying out. This is considered a savings account of sorts, rather than a speculation or even investment vehicle. The goal is to speculate around the periphery of that. In another market phase (e.g. post-crash), the account may get much more in the game.

Trading Account

No positions.

Roth IRA (non-taxable, no contributions)

The chart’s 3 year view shows the slog (consolidation) that began before the election and lasted into April, as the stock market made a climactic low. Since then gold stocks have been leading and while I joke that I am “white knucklin’ it!”, I am actually aware of a real bull market happening with real fundamentals. When that changes, you’ll be the first to know. Meanwhile, I will continue to make great plays and stupid mistakes as an individual trader/investor. It’s kind of how this racket works.

I accidentally omitted percent of account, but positions are in order of size. Cash & Equiv are 78% due to “week-to-week” profit taking, loss limiting and lack of will to buy more gold stocks up here (I have increased a couple positions). But if we see a melt-up scenario, which could be a final play before the party halts at least temporarily, I’ll deploy more cash.

As an example, I’d probably want more global situations to join BABA. More commodity/resources related as well. But this will depend on Silver/Gold ratio and USD, with a nod to the TSX-V/TSX ratio as well.

It has been a very good year so far, so I guess I am in “don’t screw it up” mode. But also, “be a little greedy when appropriate” mode. An interplay between risk management and capital deployment.

Cash & income-generating Equivalents are at levels that are right for me and my real-world situation. Your situation is different. Cash will be adjusted as needed.

Refer to the Trade Log under the NFTRH Premium menu at nftrh.com for trade info, if interested (not that you necessarily should be). Also, you can follow on X @NFTRHgt for notice of updates.

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Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) is a weekly market report in which we provide analysis on financial markets.  We make every effort to provide accurate and high quality content, but this analysis ultimately represents our opinions and these opinions are provided without warranty or guarantee of any kind.  See full terms & conditions of service under the ‘About’ heading in the main menu.