The gold price as adjusted by major currencies

Gold in global currencies, looking good

Gold price is trending up vs. major global currencies The corrections will come to the nominal gold price, but a real bull market will need participation vs. all major currencies and that is what is happening currently. Gold is even handily outperforming CHF/USD (Swiss Franc), to which the nominal gold price has a positive correlation. The exception is the Japanese Yen, which got clobbered in … Continue reading Gold in global currencies, looking good

qqq/spy ratio

QQQ/SPY Ratio; another long-term indicator trend in trouble

The ratio of big Tech (QQQ) to the broader market (SPY) is in danger of making a secular top The log scale monthly chart (displaying percentage changes) shows a channel breakdown of a leader that held sway since 2006 as big Tech (QQQ) vs. SPY drops from the channel to test lateral support. If that area breaks down it’s not going to be pretty in … Continue reading QQQ/SPY Ratio; another long-term indicator trend in trouble

us dollar index (DXY), usd

US dollar index (DXY) is also on plan

The US dollar index (DXY) is dropping toward the 50% Fib retrace level Reference yesterday’s post on USD. The next support (not visible on the daily chart) coincides with a 50% Fibonacci pullback of the entire rally, which negatively diverged the inflation trades as we had noted all along the uptrend. The next marker is the 62% Fib, which coincides with a visible support shelf … Continue reading US dollar index (DXY) is also on plan

us dollar index, dxy, usd

US dollar index and the 200 day moving average

The US dollar index (DXY) is bobbing around just below the SMA 200 to open FOMC week As always, there are a lot more analytical signals in play than just a nominal daily chart. But where the chart is concerned it shows the US dollar index having dropped below the uptrending SMA 200, bounced to test the breakdown and thus far holding below it. It … Continue reading US dollar index and the 200 day moving average

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; This argues that the US dollar correction is not nearly over

Any single indicator can fail to work at any time. It’s why we use many of them to gain the weight of the evidence. But Commercial hedger positions in the USD argue that there is lower to go over time. Notice how previous USD corrections dating back to 2013 (clear correlations go back 20 years but I cut this chart off at 2013) have not … Continue reading NFTRH+; This argues that the US dollar correction is not nearly over

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NFTRH+; USD (DXY) [w/ edit about the yield curve]

USD is the anti-market. It has dropped to within a whisker of the main target, which is the SMA 200 and is now bouncing. The major daily chart trend for USD is up and until/unless it breaks down below 105 this can be considered a healthy test. The bounce will either reassert USD’s preeminence in the markets or USD will fail into a future breakdown. … Continue reading NFTRH+; USD (DXY) [w/ edit about the yield curve]

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USD (DXY) nears an important target

As the global counter-party, USD’s recent failure has been the primary source of financial market cheer lately. But as usual, things are not so easy as defining a target, having an item reach that target and all’s well and good because we planned for it. What is not normal to our plan is that USD has dropped like a stone, nearly to the primary objective … Continue reading USD (DXY) nears an important target

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; updating the anti-markets

Anti-markets (to a seasonal rally scenario) being the US dollar index (DXY) and Gold/Silver ratio, which signal lack of liquidity when rising together and sufficient market liquidity when dropping together. USD broke down hard on yesterday’s CPI hype and this is a well deserved correction. But USD is actually ticking a minor short-term support level at 106.60. The ultimate downside target was/is the rising SMA … Continue reading NFTRH+; updating the anti-markets

30 year treasury bond yield (tyx)

Q4-Q1 plan engages

Relief provided by an easing October CPI ‘inflation’ report the trigger It was bound to happen sooner or later. October finally showed an easing comp in what most people think of as inflation (CPI)* and markets that were ripe to rally for other reasons used the ‘CPI inflation’ report as the trigger. NFTRH has been on alert for a potentially positive Q4, 2022 to Q1, … Continue reading Q4-Q1 plan engages