It’s FOMC week. A week that I have come to flat out despise because it seems even when I make money during FOMC week, it often feels not worth it due to anxiety and annoyance.
In #899 I gave a few reasons why things could get a little hairy this week. Let’s tune all that out and simply look at the two characters that would play a central role in any market disturbance (if they rally), or market bullishness (if they remain bearish). This in light of the fact that fellow ‘anti’ market, the Japanese Yen is up significantly the last two trading days (on some kind of policy announcement, as I recall).
USD is just plain bearish. If there is any USD-based market problem to come, it is not being advertised by the chart.
The Gold/Silver ratio, however, has been my main bugaboo and it still is. Today it impaled the next downside target level at 47.50 and is hammering back a bit.
Things are extreme, the herds are frothing and it is FOMC week. For me that means don’t be greedy and take some well earned profits. That is what I am doing. Profit taking is focused on that which has really gone up heartily. That would be the precious metals and certain headline strategic commodities.
I am not necessarily casting the above view on the broad market. For example, I think that Tech could stand a chance at rallying with the disinflationary signals of a firming USD and rising GSR. Also understand that USD and GSR have NOT rallied. This update is speculation on the risk of that happening.
