Undoing the UUP vs. SHV Mistake

After noting a re-buy of the UUP position on the USD pullback, a couple of sharp subscribers asked in essence "why UUP instead of adding more SHV?", which sports one…

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Profits Taken on USD Bull Fund

Uncle Buck's pattern is active, everybody sees it now and as noted in NFTRH 471, the buck has lost its contrarian edge (sentiment is neutral from previously universally hated) and…

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Is Uncle Buck the Johnny Yen of Last Summer?

Just asking because this chart of UUP... ...looks somewhat similar to this chart of the Yen (before it formed its right shoulder)... ...which we used to gauge a bearish Yen…

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Post-Trump, Some Items Go Limp, Others Firm

Look at these bedfellows that are sleeping together in a sign that all does not feel well with the market, post-inauguration. TIP-TLT is in a weird, toppy looking short-term pattern. …

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NFTRH; Market Update

We looked at the precious metals miner ETFs on Tuesday and the status there has not changed.  They are still below the EMA 12 & 20 but trying to hold the 50 day moving averages, which means they are still in short-term downtrends and intermediate up trends.  For my part, I added a couple items on downside activity (explorer/developer PG.TO just above its MA 200 & royalty/streamer SLW at its MA 50s) but also still hold the DUST and JDST hedges, as noted in the NFTRH 397.  This hedging, which sometimes proves unsatisfying could last hours or days.  As noted in the previous update, the struggle to hold the MA 50s will decide whether it will have been a quick correction or something deeper.

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NFTRH; Gold Stocks, USD and the ‘Inflation Trade’

Here we play the short-term technical game again despite the gold sector running against its own fundamentals (i.e. as the ‘inflation trade’, including mining cost input oil, continues higher).  At some point this will matter.

But on the other side of the coin are price, momentum and technicals.  A Monday open can be a tricky thing, but as of this moment GDX is in a posture to break the most recent consolidation.

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Until Today

Euro 50 Flips Draghi the Bird, S&P 500 Fails at a Key Parameter, Semi's are Fundamentally Bearish and Gold Has a Sentiment Washout Within its Bear Market Markets Had Been…

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NFTRH 352 Out Now

We have had the pulse of the precious metals every step of the way.  We have mostly stayed on the right side of stock markets too.  We have indicators and…

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Euro Bullish

First, the big picture monthly view of the €uro.  How long ago it was that we charted the high risk level of 140 (+/-), at which €uro hit the top…

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Pre-FOMC Notes (and Research)

'Close to the vest' (AKA not leaning too far one way or another, AKA cash) remains the play until the FOMC meeting and its aftermath are cleared.  This is because…

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USD and Yen

Catching up on Uncle Buck and Johnny Yen, we return to the monthly comparison chart.  Yen continues to search for a low to bounce from if it is going to…

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NFTRH; Multi-Market Update

Well, here came the short covering rally in the precious metals.  By calling it that I don’t mean that it cannot turn into something more, but today was most assuredly driven by short covering as the US dollar unwound some of its speculative sponsorship.  One can assume that large speculators took it on the chin on both ends, in the USD and in gold/silver as the Commercial traders had been aligned increasingly bearish and bullish, respectively.

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