First, the big picture monthly view of the €uro. How long ago it was that we charted the high risk level of 140 (+/-), at which €uro hit the top (down) trend channel line and dumped out of a wedge. Important support was lost at 120 and the anticpated bottom has been the lower channel line.
Today commercial hedgers are in a bullish alignment for the €uro just as they were in 2012 as it began to rise for 2 years in the ultimately ill-fated wedge.
On the other side of the trade are the speculative interests, historically net short the €uro…
…and the public optimism index, which is a reliable contrary indicator and is hyper bearish now.
Finally, here is a dialed in 60 min. view of EUR/USD. It looks bullish on the short-term as it burst up on the bad US Payrolls report and looks to be bull flagging.
Conclusion? Well, the €uro looks bullish on both short and intermediate time frames. Beyond that, out to the long-term €uro is bearish and USD bullish, with a long way to go in both technical parameters and time before that view can be altered.
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