A general update of a macro in transition Detailed work, which got us to this point intact, if a little frustrated*, is done in NFTRH reports and updates. But it’s always handy to have a general summary view of macro markets. So let’s get to it. * Reference this post done while sitting with a flight delay at JFK managing the breakout in the Gold/Silver … Continue reading US & Global stocks, bonds, USD, precious metals & commodities
As the Yield Curve flattens, this inflation is different from the 2020 inflation In 2020 an inflationary yield curve steepener was in the bag as the Fed dropped and pinned the Funds Rate and sucked up every bond it could get its hands on (in order to monetize/print). The bond market made the logical signals about the resulting inflation as the short end was pinned … Continue reading The Yield Curve flattener and a coming transition
HUI bottomed vs. SPX in December Here is the weekly chart we’ve used over the last 1.5 years to gauge the downside in gold stocks (HUI) vs. the S&P 500. I did not originally plan the A-B-C corrective scenario but inserted point B upon the failure last June and we (NFTRH) began scouting a bottom at ‘C’ in Q4 2021. It’s a ratio, but it … Continue reading A bottom in gold stocks vs. broad stocks
Very helpful as a guide in times of change, sorting through different short and long-term conditions and associated strategies. NFTRH 692, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by PayPal or credit card using a button … Continue reading NFTRH 692, out now
Cannabis Overhaul in Washington is Only Getting Harder Article is a month old, but still very relevant. When politicians are involved, it can only be complicated. Interestingly, this has nothing to do with partisan politics, it has everything to do with who stands to benefit and who could be impaired by Federal legalization. As a Cannabis sector investor – nursing several small positions (that got … Continue reading Interesting WSJ article on US Federal Cannabis legalization
Junk bond ETF HYG is going bearish. This is not good signaling or any sort of positive divergence for the stock market. It is a flat out negative one, as the speculation the Fed instigated in 2020 continues to wane. If situations like this do not reverse or stabilize soon there could well be a liquidity event in the offing. I have been lightly speculating … Continue reading NFTRH+; Bad signaling for risk ‘on’
Uranium is flagging after breaking a monthly chart base Wanna see a nice bottom? Not that kind of bottom! This kind of bottom. It turns me on. A long-term base. Here’s the monthly chart of Uranium futures. I hold 4 Uranium positions and had not previously had a decent chart of u3o8. Now that I have it I hold those positions all the more firmly. … Continue reading Yellow Cake is flagging out of a base
Fo-Moe? Faux-Moe? Whatever it is, FOMO-driven MOMO is in play Manic forces likely driven by the fear of missing out seem to be overtaking markets. This environment of inflation-fueled speculation was created by the 2020 Federal Reserve in panic mode, while today the 2021 Federal Reserve is trying to manage us in the other direction according to the James Bullard indicator, at least. How difficult … Continue reading Garth, Wayne and… Moe?
NFTRH 666(6) took a focused look at Semiconductors, updated/added more details to the gold stock view (adding new weekly miner/royalty charts), did a full Commodities segment and updated the current macro, which of course is the director of everything else. Angelic NFTRH 666(6), out now. Continue reading NFTRH 666(6), out now
Reformed Broker on a coming (someday) taper: Of course they’re going to talk about tapering So, they’re ready to start thinking about thinking about tapering. It’s good that they’re acknowledging the pressures in the real economy and their role in it. Hmmm, let me think… what could appropriately describe the Fed’s role in the inflationary recovery and one day, its end? Hmmm… Oh, I know! … Continue reading “Thinking about thinking about tapering”
We use the basic sentiment indicators in weekly reports (AAII, NAAIM, Investors Intelligence, etc.) but my sentiment service, Sentimentrader, has daily reports that dig into more specific areas. I usually do not include them because as the last year has proven, even alarming sentiment signals can go interminably with a bullish market and I don’t want NFTRH to be an alarmist service. I want it … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Deeper Look at Sentiment
Archegos Capital Management Gets Margin Calls, Defaults I sense an opportunity of some kind here as a hedge fund blows up and exposed banks get hammered. Now, if I can only figure out what that opportunity is. Banks warn of ‘significant losses’ as they exit positions with large U.S. hedge fund It’ll take some time to settle in, but it feels like buying the Pigs … Continue reading Hedge Fund Blows Up, Banks Get Whacked
[edit] Never mind the snap back, which will probably come. I’m taking a loss on the minor bounce-back in AH due to a potentially busted story. Plenty of other opportunities out there for the cash. But this does serve to remind anyone reading that in the world of stock trading this is a genius-free zone. Gary the portfolio manager really bailed out Gary the trader … Continue reading Puke Horse [w/ edit]
Jazz to Acquire GW Pharmaceuticals A nice little surprise this morning. UPDATE: Jazz Pharmaceuticals to acquire GW Pharma for $7.2 billion in cash and stock, GW soars 46% premarket From the NFTRH Trade Log just 2 days ago… “Added GWPH on the pullback. I think I made a mistake in selling previously.” Sometimes you get lucky. I had taken a previous profit on it while … Continue reading Oh Boy, There Goes GW Pharma (GWPH)
