It’s the Q4-Q1 relief play, baby It’s getting easier and easier now to be bullish, but that is the product of FOMO* in the herds. Hence, today was my last day of buying** fallen items across, in order of preference and general acquisition, the Precious Metals, Emerging Markets, outlier/specialty Commodities, select US sectors and Energy (yup, Energy, the formerly “last inflated man standing”) off of … Continue reading Strategy is working well so far
The 2 year Treasury bond yield, T-bill and S&P 500 beg multiple interpretations I called the 2 year Treasury bond yield the most important chart in the world the other day to poke fun at those who use such hyperbole to make a (likely biased) point, but also to illustrating a likely topping situation in the 2 year yield. Below is the 2 year Treasury … Continue reading Putting the 2 year Treasury bond yield in context
Long-term Treasury yields are rising this week within their intact daily uptrends. Bearing in mind that we are in the midst of a silly season, where I don’t think market signals are generally as reliable. The yields are testing the break below the SMA 50 again, within the uptrend. If yields were to rise again (trend is up after all, but inflation signals are fading) … Continue reading NFTRH+; Bond market indications
Relief provided by an easing October CPI ‘inflation’ report the trigger It was bound to happen sooner or later. October finally showed an easing comp in what most people think of as inflation (CPI)* and markets that were ripe to rally for other reasons used the ‘CPI inflation’ report as the trigger. NFTRH has been on alert for a potentially positive Q4, 2022 to Q1, … Continue reading Q4-Q1 plan engages
“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble … Continue reading “Post-bubble contraction”
Today could be the start of a contrary relief bounce in a wide range of markets, including precious metals. I had thought that FOMC might bring something like that as a play contrary to the existing downtrends (and over bearish sentiment that goes with them). A few examples: ES (SPX futures) is bouncing right from the June low, as is NQ (NDX futures). Gold is … Continue reading NFTRH+; relief bounce
Hot inflation is still in the news! You can click the image if you’d like to read the hype. CME Group was and still is overwhelmingly projecting a .75% rate hike coming on the 21st of the month. So there is no change to the macro view from that standpoint. Let’s see how some other yield markers are shaping up. First and IMO most importantly, … Continue reading NFTRH+; pre-FOMC interest rate landscape
The time is now for the broad market rally to gain a following It’s a bear market. The trends make that assertion, not me. But as noted in an NFTRH update on July 28th… FOMC came. FOMC laid a .75% egg. FOMC rode off into the sunset until September. Meanwhile, signs of global economic contraction continue to crop up as the Fed fights the last … Continue reading Post-FOMC contrarian window open
And I gotta run! Happy 4th, folks. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or … Continue reading NFTRH 712, out now
A general update of a macro in transition Detailed work, which got us to this point intact, if a little frustrated*, is done in NFTRH reports and updates. But it’s always handy to have a general summary view of macro markets. So let’s get to it. * Reference this post done while sitting with a flight delay at JFK managing the breakout in the Gold/Silver … Continue reading US & Global stocks, bonds, USD, precious metals & commodities
As the Yield Curve flattens, this inflation is different from the 2020 inflation In 2020 an inflationary yield curve steepener was in the bag as the Fed dropped and pinned the Funds Rate and sucked up every bond it could get its hands on (in order to monetize/print). The bond market made the logical signals about the resulting inflation as the short end was pinned … Continue reading The Yield Curve flattener and a coming transition
HUI bottomed vs. SPX in December Here is the weekly chart we’ve used over the last 1.5 years to gauge the downside in gold stocks (HUI) vs. the S&P 500. I did not originally plan the A-B-C corrective scenario but inserted point B upon the failure last June and we (NFTRH) began scouting a bottom at ‘C’ in Q4 2021. It’s a ratio, but it … Continue reading A bottom in gold stocks vs. broad stocks
Very helpful as a guide in times of change, sorting through different short and long-term conditions and associated strategies. NFTRH 692, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by PayPal or credit card using a button … Continue reading NFTRH 692, out now
Cannabis Overhaul in Washington is Only Getting Harder Article is a month old, but still very relevant. When politicians are involved, it can only be complicated. Interestingly, this has nothing to do with partisan politics, it has everything to do with who stands to benefit and who could be impaired by Federal legalization. As a Cannabis sector investor – nursing several small positions (that got … Continue reading Interesting WSJ article on US Federal Cannabis legalization
