May ISM and Payrolls both positive Today the backward looking Payrolls report gets the headlines but this week saw another important economic report. One that probably contains more important information. The May ISM PMI came out and it shows contracting employment but still buoyant prices, orders and general business. The complications arise in the persistent supply chain issues, complicated by COVID-19 and a geopolitical world … Continue reading ISM & Payrolls
Target and Walmart hit hard with cost increases What good are increased sales when every unit of sales is subject to pressured margins? It’s another manifestation of our antlered friend, the Stag… Ref. from one year ago… Inflation: Going Stag We are already seeing Stagflationary pressure in the above linked ISM report, in Semiconductor supply shortages, in seemingly unavailable labor, in FOOD (as NFTRH has … Continue reading Inflation hitting retailers hard
CPI will show inflation, but at what rate?  You can view the CPI report here by clicking the graphic… This morning’s CPI release is much anticipated by your trusty blog writer and more widely and for different reasons, the mainstream media. Here is Fox news (which I can bare to look at every once in a while, albeit not seriously, now that they’ve rotated … Continue reading CPI on tap [w/ edit]
April Payrolls increase by 428,000 You can get all the details of yet another strong BLS report by clicking the blurb: Drilling into it we find Leisure and Hospitality leading the consumerist ‘services’ economy as usual. But look who’s also strong. That would be manufacturing, which is growing as noted in yesterday’s post, albeit at a slowing rate. That’s pretty good. But a 12 month … Continue reading Payrolls +428,000
January payrolls +467,000, despite Omicron (which was so Q4 2021) In. The. Bag. Omicron always was going to come down as rapidly as it spiked up. Anyway, January payrolls blew through expectations (click headline, get report from BLS): Hazel is pleased, as she has plenty of work to do for leisure seeking Americans (who are they, anyway?) as the Good Ship Lollipop sails on along … Continue reading Payrolls: Good news! Bad news! +467K
The Citi Economic Surprise Index led the correction; now what? As we noted for all too many months in a row in NFTRH, the CESI had been on a gross divergence to the S&P 500. That gap, as measured by SPX technicals, is now closed. Indeed, the data do not include today’s big GDP surprise. Interesting, and on the face of it, not bearish. From … Continue reading Surprise!
The Capital Sponge Thank you to a subscriber for sending this along. The Capital Sponge by Lyn Alden I used to write about stuff like this in the 2004-2008 time frame – in not nearly as refined a way as Ms. Alden in this piece, as I was basically learning and reporting from the vantage point of a guy with a US-based manufacturing company trying … Continue reading The Capital Sponge
November Payrolls +230,000 vs. 573,000 estimate Of course, it’s all about the Fed, eh? With a side order of Omicron. Click the graphic below, get the report from BLS that is a ‘disappointment’ vs. estimates. In a policy-driven market bad news is good news, down is up and it’s all normal in the rabbit hole. Here is the industry breakdown with an interesting views of … Continue reading Payrolls +230k, a ‘disappointment’
 Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield Curve. Here is its status at the time of writing. It is making a steepening hint this week along with the rise in bond yields. That signaling is inflationary, at least for now. But in … Continue reading When the tight economic rope slackens [w/ edit]
The Semiconductor sector has an internal warning… As if the economic cycle and thus the stock market did not have enough internal problems (e.g. the CESI divergence to the S&P 500) a cyclical leader, the Semiconductor sector, is suspect as the front end of the market leadership chain (SOX>NDX>SPX), and in its own sector internals. As a reminder, the play coming out of the acute … Continue reading Semi sector flashes a moderate warning
August Payrolls disappoints at 235,000; one sector would benefit So I guess that the Citi Economic Surprise Index per yesterday’s post is more concerning still, as analysts expecting +720,000 new jobs get whacked upside the head again. A click of the headline yields the report from BLS… Here is the visual on who is and is not gaining employment. WTF happened to Leisure and Hospitality, … Continue reading BLS: Jobs +235k, way below expectations
Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to flash a stark warning Not that it has mattered (as with other bubble indicators) but the CESI is and has been guiding the S&P 500 lower since 2020, and said S&P 500 refuses to listen. SPX is aloft in CESI terms by both its proximity to its 200 day moving average and by analysts’ lofty forward P/E projections. What … Continue reading CESI: Surprise!
July payrolls from BLS: +943k Click image, get report… The number is a little more than what the media says the markets expected, but all in all not a surprise. Here is the graphical breakdown of monthly changes. Who is surprised that the Good Ship Lollipop is massively leveraged to its behemoth Services industries. Specifically, Leisure & Hospitality services. Also, who is surprised that government … Continue reading Jobs, hot off the press… +943k
USD drops as a tepid May Payrolls report eases inflation fears further May payrolls expanded, but not as much as anticipated. Click graphic, get report from BLS. Here’s the graphical view of the current unemployment rate. Typical of the US, which compared to many global areas does not like to get its hands dirty (with things like mining, manufacturing and you know, other non-essentials <<< … Continue reading May Payrolls, the Good Ship Lollipop & USD