In another surprise (not), November Payrolls increased more than expected It’s a process, rolling an economy over. November Payrolls exceeded expectations and given the season and the nature of Payrolls as a lagging indicator, it’s no impediment to the 2023 economic contraction view. Nope, nuh uh. You can click the graphic to get the report from BLS: On to the details, we find the Good … Continue reading November Payrolls +263k
David Rosenberg on Deflation From an NFTRH subscriber: “Gary, You might want to watch David Rosenberg’s presentation. You guys have a lot in common wrt your market outlook and deflation expectations.” Thanks, Michael. I am enjoying listening to him right now. I love non-promotional voices just telling it as they see it. Continue reading David Rosenberg on Deflation
Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions are becoming a thing of the past Check out the state of one of the drivers that exacerbated the inflation created by the Federal Reserve. As implied by our recent check-ups on the decelerating ISM and other manufacturing surveys, the Richmond manufacturing index shows that supply chain issues were so 2021. Here’s a compelling view from the always handy Daily Shot. … Continue reading Remember those supply chain issues?
“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble … Continue reading “Post-bubble contraction”
The September ISM shows manufacturing continuing to weaken Of course, this is a forward looking economic indicator, so why would our friends at the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve take it or other signs of deceleration and waning inflation into account? Why, when they have some nice, fat, backward-looking data like CPI? But I digress. You can click the image to get a nice visual of decelerating … Continue reading ISM continues to decelerate
Below is a short excerpt from NFTRH 726 on the post-bubble contraction, as coined by Bob Hoye. My critique of Bob’s timing does not compare to my admiration of his rare and right minded fundamental views of the gold sector. Indeed, you can click this graphic for a PDF file of Bob discussing the sector. I was made aware of this shortly after posting #726 … Continue reading Hoye’s Post-Bubble Contraction
Payrolls still frisky but no big surprise Not too hot, not too cold. The Good Ship Lollipop sails on with its jobs machine still cranking. You can click the graphic to get the BLS report if you’d like. Now, what of the economic sector breakdown? Is the USS GSL still sailing on the strength of its vaunted ‘services’ sectors? Hazel? Anyone? Yes. Of course! There … Continue reading August Payrolls +315,000
BLS reports job gains of 528,000 in July Click headline, get full BLS report. This ought to keep Hazel good and busy as Americans lap up Professional & Business services, Education & Health services, Leisure & Hospitality services and Government services. Why it’s a reflection of the temporary ‘Goldilocks’ theme we’ve been working to. If you recall the massive yield curve flattener from 2013 to … Continue reading July Payrolls +528,000
John Hussman’s July market comment Are We There Yet? I have not read ole’ Doc Hussman in years but I’ve had him linked at this site for many years and this morning took a look at his latest article. Same old Doc. Outstanding financial market realism. When the collapse comes (and I suspect it will), don’t blame Fed tightening for bursting the bubble. Once “bubble” … Continue reading Hussman’s latest: Are we there yet?
May ISM and Payrolls both positive Today the backward looking Payrolls report gets the headlines but this week saw another important economic report. One that probably contains more important information. The May ISM PMI came out and it shows contracting employment but still buoyant prices, orders and general business. The complications arise in the persistent supply chain issues, complicated by COVID-19 and a geopolitical world … Continue reading ISM & Payrolls
Target and Walmart hit hard with cost increases What good are increased sales when every unit of sales is subject to pressured margins? It’s another manifestation of our antlered friend, the Stag… Ref. from one year ago… Inflation: Going Stag We are already seeing Stagflationary pressure in the above linked ISM report, in Semiconductor supply shortages, in seemingly unavailable labor, in FOOD (as NFTRH has … Continue reading Inflation hitting retailers hard
CPI will show inflation, but at what rate?  You can view the CPI report here by clicking the graphic… This morning’s CPI release is much anticipated by your trusty blog writer and more widely and for different reasons, the mainstream media. Here is Fox news (which I can bare to look at every once in a while, albeit not seriously, now that they’ve rotated … Continue reading CPI on tap [w/ edit]
April Payrolls increase by 428,000 You can get all the details of yet another strong BLS report by clicking the blurb: Drilling into it we find Leisure and Hospitality leading the consumerist ‘services’ economy as usual. But look who’s also strong. That would be manufacturing, which is growing as noted in yesterday’s post, albeit at a slowing rate. That’s pretty good. But a 12 month … Continue reading Payrolls +428,000
January payrolls +467,000, despite Omicron (which was so Q4 2021) In. The. Bag. Omicron always was going to come down as rapidly as it spiked up. Anyway, January payrolls blew through expectations (click headline, get report from BLS): Hazel is pleased, as she has plenty of work to do for leisure seeking Americans (who are they, anyway?) as the Good Ship Lollipop sails on along … Continue reading Payrolls: Good news! Bad news! +467K