The Empire State Manufacturing survey is bad Here is the report (PDF) from the New York Fed. Let's just take a visual journey down the road to disinflation/deflation and economic…
January payrolls boomed at +517,000 You can click the graphic to get the details from BLS: I was quite taken aback by how strong the January Payrolls reading was. While…
Inflation signals and economy fading/decelerating as expected That which was built of inflation will deconstruct with inflation's fade. That's the rough plan, anyway. It's important to remember that short-term phases…
December payrolls increased by 223,000 You can click this graphic for the full BLS report... You can click this fellow doing his job to see the MSM's take on it...…
The December ISM Manufacturing Survey is per our 2023 plans The December ISM report is bad, folks. And it's on track to our favored view for this year as the…
Philly Fed manufacturing and non-manufacturing data are decelerating Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December Current Philadelphia area manufacturing activity has drilled down toward recession levels, while optimistic survey respondents see…
As the November CPI report moderates, disinflation continues apace As the great and powerful Fed of Oz prepares to render his decision (ha ha ha) on the Fed Funds rate,…
In another surprise (not), November Payrolls increased more than expected It's a process, rolling an economy over. November Payrolls exceeded expectations and given the season and the nature of Payrolls…
David Rosenberg on Deflation From an NFTRH subscriber: "Gary, You might want to watch David Rosenberg’s presentation. You guys have a lot in common wrt your market outlook and deflation…
Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions are becoming a thing of the past Check out the state of one of the drivers that exacerbated the inflation created by the Federal Reserve. As…
"Post-bubble contraction" (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience.…
The September ISM shows manufacturing continuing to weaken Of course, this is a forward looking economic indicator, so why would our friends at the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve take it or…
Below is a short excerpt from NFTRH 726 on the post-bubble contraction, as coined by Bob Hoye. My critique of Bob's timing does not compare to my admiration of his…
Payrolls still frisky but no big surprise Not too hot, not too cold. The Good Ship Lollipop sails on with its jobs machine still cranking. You can click the graphic…