The 10yr2yr yield curve steepening trend is well intact, indicating an oncoming economic bust not too far out on the horizon It's not the only indicator to the macro, but…
Tariff effects always were going to be delayed... stagflation or deflation? If the thesis of this well thought out analytical string is correct, no tariff effects will have washed up…
"Stagflation or Deflation?"; one will come first As the Fed's Michael Barr notes, tariffs will put upward pressure on prices of items subject to said tariffs. You can tap the…
Trump is not all wrong about who is at fault for contracting GDP, but he's plenty wrong too Click the image if you'd like to read the article explaining why…
Tariffs and the global trade war could flip the macro inflationary (stagflationary) sooner than expected "It's complicated." An answer that may be given by people when asked about their relationship,…
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve indicates that the economic bust is on schedule No way did I know that Trump was going to shove it into gear so actively like this.…
Trump appears to be using a 1970s, or worse, 1930s playbook; and those playbooks did not work even though the US had a large industrial base at those times [edit]…
Slow-moving bear market and recession signals have been in play for months/years; just one example being steepening yield curve, but fast-movers will time things better Slow-Moving Indicators In NFTRH we…
The February BLS Payrolls Report shows a moderate miss vs. expectations I don't know whether to give Hazel a frown off this report, so I'll keep that disgusting and winning…
The media are muck raking again, as the Fed's favorite "recession indicator" flashes (bullshit, MSM) This is not to say that I don't agree that a recession is coming. I…
Musk and the bond market are in a convenient alignment, but the bond market situation has been in progress since 2023 Our (NFTRH) view has been for falling inflation signals…
If the whispers of revaluing the US gold reserves prove true, it could be an instant boon to the peoples' (currently debt-addled) asset base [edit] Per the article's comments, a…
In the shadow Trump tariffs, an interest rate cutting regime does not seem likely This man wants his Tariff cake and he wants to eat it too. The implication of…
The January Payrolls report come in at +143,000, supported by Education Services and Government, yet STILL less than expected The late stage services economy chugs onward, but Hazel's grotesque and…