The January Payrolls report come in at +143,000, supported by Education Services and Government, yet STILL less than expected
The late stage services economy chugs onward, but Hazel’s grotesque and taunting smile is gone.
Here is the January Payrolls report, courtesy of BLS:
And here is the economic sector breakdown, on a monthly change basis. Retail Trade, Government, “Other” services, and an ongoing boom for Education and Health services. We’ll let Hazel keep her winning smile despite the obvious quaking of the earth beneath her feet. Leisure and Hospitality got hammered into submission. That’s the consumer, who held onto her discretionary income, for some reason.
Other Notables to the January Payrolls Report
- “Employment declined in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas industry.”
- Those are “Trump Trades”, so January’s relative weighting may have been among the last of their kind.
- Government? If Trump is what he says he is, that is going to start going negative at a rapid pace. Government hiring was one of the rudders keeping the Good Ship Lollipop on course in 2024.
- The unemployment rate is still in pullback mode.
Trump is in the works now, and what we do know is that the internals of the employment picture are going to rotate. What we (or at least, I) don’t know is whether that rotation will be in the context of overall contracting US employment. My educated guess is, err, yes.
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