ISM & Payrolls

May ISM and Payrolls both positive Today the backward looking Payrolls report gets the headlines but this week saw another important economic report. One that probably contains more important information. The May ISM PMI came out and it shows contracting employment but still buoyant prices, orders and general business. The complications arise in the persistent supply chain issues, complicated by COVID-19 and a geopolitical world … Continue reading ISM & Payrolls

Payrolls: Good news! Bad news! +467K

January payrolls +467,000, despite Omicron (which was so Q4 2021) In. The. Bag. Omicron always was going to come down as rapidly as it spiked up. Anyway, January payrolls blew through expectations (click headline, get report from BLS): Hazel is pleased, as she has plenty of work to do for leisure seeking Americans (who are they, anyway?) as the Good Ship Lollipop sails on along … Continue reading Payrolls: Good news! Bad news! +467K

Payrolls +230k, a ‘disappointment’

November Payrolls +230,000 vs. 573,000 estimate Of course, it’s all about the Fed, eh? With a side order of Omicron. Click the graphic below, get the report from BLS that is a ‘disappointment’ vs. estimates. In a policy-driven market bad news is good news, down is up and it’s all normal in the rabbit hole. Here is the industry breakdown with an interesting views of … Continue reading Payrolls +230k, a ‘disappointment’

BLS: Jobs +235k, way below expectations

August Payrolls disappoints at 235,000; one sector would benefit So I guess that the Citi Economic Surprise Index per yesterday’s post is more concerning still, as analysts expecting +720,000 new jobs get whacked upside the head again. A click of the headline yields the report from BLS… Here is the visual on who is and is not gaining employment. WTF happened to Leisure and Hospitality, … Continue reading BLS: Jobs +235k, way below expectations

Jobs, hot off the press… +943k

July payrolls from BLS: +943k Click image, get report… The number is a little more than what the media says the markets expected, but all in all not a surprise. Here is the graphical breakdown of monthly changes. Who is surprised that the Good Ship Lollipop is massively leveraged to its behemoth Services industries. Specifically, Leisure & Hospitality services. Also, who is surprised that government … Continue reading Jobs, hot off the press… +943k

May Payrolls, the Good Ship Lollipop & USD

USD drops as a tepid May Payrolls report eases inflation fears further May payrolls expanded, but not as much as anticipated. Click graphic, get report from BLS. Here’s the graphical view of the current unemployment rate. Typical of the US, which compared to many global areas does not like to get its hands dirty (with things like mining, manufacturing and you know, other non-essentials <<< … Continue reading May Payrolls, the Good Ship Lollipop & USD


Jobs +266K, Yields Pull Back

All in the service to playing a game of ‘Hide the [inflationary] Cheese’… April’s expected hiring boom goes bust as nonfarm payroll gain falls well short of estimates Here’s the release from BLS, which you can get by clicking the headline. I had felt that the underside of the 2.5% – 2.8% caution zone on the Continuum would bring some kind of halt to yields … Continue reading Jobs +266K, Yields Pull Back

Jobs +1.4 Million

The predictable snap-back in employment continued in August with 1.4 Million jobs brought back on line and unemployment falling to 8.4%. Click below for the detailed report from BLS. Unemployment was of course going to recover to a sharp degree as the economy re-opened. And here’s who’s doing the heavy lifting. What is with that spike in Government employment? Hey Trump, you’re supposed to be … Continue reading Jobs +1.4 Million

Not Only Was He Tweet-Pumping the Stock Market the Other Day…

…but today he’s vigorously pumping the Jobs number. His Twitter is littered with the stuff. What a spam artist. Of course the ‘experts’ were wrong. They are usually wrong. That’s why I tune out ‘experts’, especially economists. Never a more Wrong Way bunch of Corrigans have I ever seen (don’t believe me, believe the Economic Surprise Index, constantly showing how surprised the experts are by … Continue reading Not Only Was He Tweet-Pumping the Stock Market the Other Day…

Payrolls +266k, the Details…

You can click this graphic for the detailed November Payrolls report from BLS. Here is where the heavy lifting came from. There is the usual onslaught of services jobs relative to productive jobs. But what’s this? Manufacturing has spiked despite the fading ISM data (including hiring)? Well, that was from the returnees of an auto worker strike so I guess one offsets the other. We’ll … Continue reading Payrolls +266k, the Details…

Jobs +136,000 as the Good Ship Lollipop Sails On

According to those seers who are paid to usually be wrong, NFP would show +145,000 jobs after a fairly weak 130,000 last month. The employment situation is flat-lining. You can click the blurb below for the full report. Let’s now see who is floating the Good Ship Lollipop, in light of the ongoing  Manufacturing slowdown and associated job losses. Why yes of course! Professional and … Continue reading Jobs +136,000 as the Good Ship Lollipop Sails On

June Payrolls +224k; Uncle Buck Jumps…

Who is surprised that Payrolls rebounded last month? I am not because this is a notoriously volatile economic data point and one bad month (May) does not a trend make. You can click the blurb for the full report from the BLS. Here is the monthly breakdown with the notables joining the usual hefty Services readings being Manufacturing and Government. Construction may have kicked in … Continue reading June Payrolls +224k; Uncle Buck Jumps…