Services and government do the lifting as usual, per the September payrolls report
Click the graphic for the full September payrolls report from BLS:
Americans continue to consume services at a massive pace, as if by preordained right. So you know who is pleased.
As for the rest of us, well, we may choose to realize that government is still going balls out with unprecedented hiring this election year, and services are the latter – and stickiest – stage of the economy. Frankly, it all fits our “to or through the election” theme for the broad bull. Although, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen in the short-term because of implications on USD and the dovish Fed story (I have not checked yet because I am writing this post). My main bigger picture focus, the gold stock sector (per GDX), does have a little downside gap issue it can potentially see to.
Here is the grotesque (and not talking about Hazel’s horrific smile this time) structure of the Good Ship Lollipop, sailing the still calm seas of a late economic cycle. It’s all been scripted, folks. That’s not a tin foil hat talking. That’s my simple “to or through the election” view (now, if it persists beyond Q1 or H1 2025, I’ll be proven w.r.o.n.g.). Last I checked though, it’s only October 4, 2024.
Add in a dose of port strike settlement and who knows what kind of rekindled inflation (and Fed hawk) hysterics may or may not get whipped up?
Moving on, here is the state of the bottom/base in the unemployment rate. It’s still a bottom and upturn despite the heroic efforts of government and the services sectors hopped up on hubris and confidence (or some other substance).
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