Because of course February Payrolls beat expectations! Good Ship Lollipop on course…
February Payrolls checked in at +275,000 to handily beat expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up a teeny. You can read the graphic below for the general reasoning why Hazel is still grotesquely smiling and waving at you. Or you can click it as a link and get all the gory details.
Graphically, what does it mean? It means that my tin foil hat conspiracy theory sure does look correct. It sure does look like Government is still hiring like gangbusters this oh so critical election year and it looks like the vast Services economy (which includes Construction, by the way) is still supporting a growing army of Hazels of one form or another.
While the unemployment rate continues to patiently make what looks like a low and base prior to upturn.
If this were a betting app instead of a public blog I’d be asking you to place your wager on whether the Biden administration, with former Fed chief Yellen in the side car, can bring it home into and through the election. I have never seen such consistent growth in government hiring in the past. 2024 is really shaping up as the most interesting year maybe ever in my professional experience.
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The report also says that there was a previous revision of January down from 353,000 to 229,000. I guess it doesn’t matter that the previous month lost a little more than 130,000. Just as long as this month is larger. (removes tinfoil hat)
Good catch! It’s all just rigged numbers anyway. Even if the jobs are real, the mechanics behind them are rigged.
GDI versus GDP. Conceptually, both measure exactly the same thing. In practice, the numbers always differ. The reason why GDP is by far the most used measure is because it’s faster and easier to compute the data (not because it’s more accurate). Bart.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/12/01/gross-domestic-income-gdi-possible-recession/71746276007/