How typical. Just as everyone was getting beared up out comes the employment report featuring a blowout number of +312,000 in December (vs. an expected 188,000). Here is the blurb from BLS… This is not going to help the Jerome Powell bashers one little bit. Of course, with Apple tanking and the trade war raging on there are crosscurrents in play. But it looks like … Continue reading Employment Blowout
Strong economy! Okay, now that we have that out of the way the futures reversed this morning on the jobs report that should have been no surprise to anyone. It’s as good as it gets out there. Just look at some of the data from Tuesday’s ISM report (PMI 61.3%). As a side note see Charlie Bilello’s Do Stocks Perform Better When Manufacturing is Booming? … Continue reading Strong Manufacturing & Strong Employment = ?
I have been highlighting some positive trades lately, so in the interest of keeping it real, I am kicking myself for being partially hedged on the precious metals (although when considering the long-term gold holding it was a drop in the bucket) into the jobs report (loss booked). The reminder once again is that NFTRH is a genius free, guru free zone. But at least … Continue reading Post-Jobs
Note: This article assumes the reader knows the reasons we are now bearish on the Semiconductor Equipment sector. NFTRH subscribers definitely do and NFTRH.com/Biiwii.com readers should as well. Readers who have been around a few years also know that we became bullish on the Semi’s in Q1 2013 from much the same reason, in reverse, we are becoming bearish now. This article was originally and … Continue reading A Wrap Up of Last Week’s Peek Behind the Policy Curtain
I was out for the early morning and that is probably a good thing because any updating would have been meaningless with the payrolls report not yet released. I for one, suspected it could be firm but not nearly this firm. Treasury yields have backed up and this is not at all a good backdrop for gold, considering that the spreads are showing short yields … Continue reading NFTRH; Payrolls, Precious Metals, Yields & Inflation Expectations
In light of the positive February Employment report NFTRH 333 opened up with some discussion of the details (the devil after all, is in those details)…
Employment, the Economy & Interest Rates
The February Employment report was a strong +295,000 with unemployment dropping to 5.5%. In Friday’s Market Notes update we highlighted that per BLS this was a services-driven report as the leading edge of the economy, the smaller but key manufacturing and industrial sectors, have begun to decelerate (notably in forward-looking ‘New Orders’).
From FloatingPath.com (markups mine) we see the breakdown…
So it makes sense that ‘Jobs’ were strong because the large ‘back end’ of the US economy is responding to the years of corporate profit increases, stock market gains (wealth effect) and an overall benevolent Fed that has, every step of the way since 2008, done all it could to keep asset markets aloft (1st) and in appreciation mode (2nd). Call them Things 1 & 2, mission accomplished.
Leisure and Hospitality… America’s getting out there again, living it up and feeling secure with the gains that eventually came from the post-2012 period, after we got our first little inkling two years ago in January of 2013 with the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up. I had no idea then how strong the economy would eventually become, but the massive services sectors in the US are now fully kicked in and enjoying the benefits.
We began the week with an update that noted the week’s economic calendar and in particular, the ISM (which came in at a still-strong 58.7% PMI) and today’s November Employment report (+321,000). Some economy watchers had expected a catch up move in November after a weaker than expected October and that is exactly what we got.
Upon rummaging through the St. Louis Fed’s excellent database, some global employment data items for review…
US manufacturing hourly earnings are in an uninterrupted up trend. To think, all through this uptrend detached, abstracted Wall Street suits and associated media, who’ve never set foot on a shop floor sold a story that we don’t make anything in this country anymore (invest in financials and play the stock market instead!).
This has actually been the result of automation. Fewer employees are more skilled in technology. I don’t say ‘more skilled’, because being a real machinist for example, is a lost and under appreciated skill.
Canada’s general employment picture is good too.