A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path

As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish. Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706: We then covered the technically bearish state of the … Continue reading A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path

Trade/Invest macro ‘top down’; a guide

Below is an excerpt from an NFTRH report (#676, due out on 10.10) that has not even been written yet, outside of this opening segment that clarifies and makes some of the concepts NFTRH deals in more standard and hence, more readily understandable by more people. Unless you are a pure day trader there should always be a reason for a given investment stance at … Continue reading Trade/Invest macro ‘top down’; a guide

Not your mother’s inflation…

Why this is the time to invest in precious metals Not your mother’s inflation Personally, I am more interested in the mechanics of inflation and the compelling charts in this article than I am in a thesis for precious metals. Silver maybe, but gold is only fractionally about inflation. But the article, which I am only in the middle of, gives some great macro parameters … Continue reading Not your mother’s inflation…

indicators

Another Update of Gold’s Lack of Inflation Utility

Over the short to intermediate-term there are better inflation hedges than gold But then, you knew that already. And as for the miners that leverage gold’s standing? These are poor macro pictures for Huey and friends. They’re still positive for the inflation-sensitive, cyclical and reflationary stuff. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth … Continue reading Another Update of Gold’s Lack of Inflation Utility

SOMA That End of Month Bearishness?

Well, that remains to be seen. We are watching the tone of earnings season as the stock market grinds out its ongoing top-test. But aside from that, the associated sentiment backdrop and the lower volume seasonal, there is the Fed’s SOMA to consider. At Biiwii, Rob Hanna presents a Quant study about SOMA weeks, and this got me thinking to check the QT bond maturity … Continue reading SOMA That End of Month Bearishness?

3 Amigos (SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve) Updated w/ edit

It has been a while since we’ve had a 3 Amigos update because a) Italy and global tariffs noise aside, nothing much has changed with the macro and b) I felt my ‘image-based metaphorical content to straight content’ ratio was getting a little excessive. So I gave it a rest. Now it is time again for an update of these important macro riders in order … Continue reading 3 Amigos (SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve) Updated w/ edit

Macro Update: 1 Week Later, Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On

Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium … Continue reading Macro Update: 1 Week Later, Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On

The Macro View: Amigos Ride On

As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3). When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the … Continue reading The Macro View: Amigos Ride On

3 Amigos Update

The SPX/Gold Amigo is on the trail of the 38% Fib retrace destination. The Long-term Interest Rates Amigo is still on the trail of a near-term rise (10yr looking better than 30yr) to the limiters. And the Yield Curve Amigo is still flattening. Bottom Line All Amigos continue to ride toward their destinations. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates … Continue reading 3 Amigos Update

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro (edits added)

Okay, so the theme is that on the macro 3 events may come together to signal a big climax, leading to change. Those Amigos are… Stocks complete their rise vs. gold. 10yr & 30yr yields hit upside targets (and limitation points) around 2.9% & 3.3%, respectively. The yield curve finishes flattening (at least) and turns to steepening (at most). We use the big picture graphic … Continue reading Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro (edits added)