As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish. Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706: We then covered the technically bearish state of the … Continue reading A dis-inflationary whiff and its likely path
Stocks enter a bear market! Stocks enter a bear market based on some arbitrary percentage that lazy media assign to it. So, like 19% was okay? No dear MSfN, stocks were indicated to have entered a bear market (of some kind) back in February when the weekly chart of SPX crossed its moving averages down (red arrow) and failed to climb above either of them … Continue reading Stocks fell into a bear market on Friday!
Say, what does the combination of this… …and this tell you? Bueller? Anyone? For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by PayPal or credit card using a button on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you … Continue reading A contrary setup in bonds?
VIX has dropped sharply While certain sentiment indicators are bleak (contrary bullish), like the Investors Intelligence (and AAII, NAAIM, etc.) survey by way of Yardeni… …the VIX is more of a sentiment pressure indicator and it is grinding upward, but currently on a sharp pullback. The way I view this is that the pressure comes in the form of an uptrend in the VIX since … Continue reading VIX pullback within new uptrend
As the stock market takes the expected rally… Part 1, per Friday’s article, was for terror stricken, over-bearish investors to spring a sentiment relief bounce; likely a strong one. The ‘Smart/Dumb’ money spread (discussed in NFTRH 691) below being just one of many over-bearish spike indicators. This graph is two things, extremely over-bearish and thus, contrary bullish, and a picture of building pressure against the … Continue reading Part 1, on plan…
Excerpted from NFTRH 687, an intro to the Market Sentiment segment… We started using the chart below in order to maintain perspective back in 2020 as we managed the recovery out of the COVID crash. The rebound was in the bag from the moment the Fed began manufacturing the inflation. VIX topped out and SPX bottomed out in a blaze of glory that was a … Continue reading Recent market sentiment retrospective as we enter 2022
‘Fear of missing out’ on market gains continues among the usual suspects, with a notable exception On October 14 we noted the environment whereby the FOMOs could utter a collective “ruh roh!”, realize they got played out of the market during the September sentiment squall and then start to chase. Well, newsletter writers had not budged as of the 19th (last Tuesday). Investors Intelligence from … Continue reading FOMOs gonna FOMO
VIX is filling a gap On Monday I sold the volatility spike. Hedge though it was I did not want to ride the spike in angst back down again: Bye bye volatility While I don’t think I am going to buy it back again, volatility has pulled back to a level that an active bear might consider buying. I plan to use shorts in other … Continue reading Buy buy volatility?
VIX is breaking down Well, it looks like the Cramer indicator nailed it back on March 5th. The indicator jumped up and down on TeeVee advising the public herds about the 5 stages of grief. The market immediately rebounded but then we did have more volatility. Now? Not so much. NFTRH 648’s Sentiment segment had this to say regarding the following weekly chart. “As the … Continue reading Ugh… Check Out the VIX
As the stock market bounce-back continues… One wonders if the FOMO (that’s fear of missing out) is brewing among the TeeVee watching public after ole’ Jimbo put ’em on the sidelines with his 5 Stages of Grief programming. We noted that the Cramer Indicator Flashes Bullish for Markets on March 5th as the markets were tanking just before the reversal. Anything can happen from here, but … Continue reading Cramer Indicator to Instigate FOMO?
This week’s edition of NFTRH is more streamlined, having only shown one sentiment indicator (NAAIM) while simply noting that sentiment in general got fixed last week to a short-term degree, while remaining structurally over-bullish. A subscriber emailed this morning asking about the Smart vs. Dumb money indicators, so I thought I’d throw that and a couple others, courtesy of the recommended (I’ve used their premium … Continue reading Updating a Few Sentiment Indicators
Man stares at charts of gold and provides the bearish news… [unnamed, because he’s technically the competition] Man who stares at charts and uses his TA discipline to advise the sometimes titillating and sometimes disappointing things he sees in his charts sees some bad news in gold. This week he’s almost apologetically advising gold bugs of the grim prospects for gold. You know, 7 months … Continue reading Man Stares at Bearish Charts of Gold
It’s a sign of the times as inflation lifts most boats and creates experts geniuses gurus swamis err, promoters a dime a dozen  Thanks to subscriber Rob I neglected a star player in the bubble hype-o-matic sweepstakes; SPACs. Funnily enough, I was going to include it but spazzed on it. Now it’s in its rightful place. I am the most boring writer in the world writing … Continue reading Promoters Gonna Promote [w/ edit]
With much fanfare, Warren Buffett has dumped his GOLD stock We highlighted the latest installment of the Buffett/Barrick Gold drama yesterday. Today IBD takes that positive contrary indicator and gives it a little more juice. Warren Buffett Dumped GOLD Stock Ahead Of Gold-Price Death Cross Ah, the dreaded Death Cross as explained by IBD… The GLD gold play appears on the verge of flashing a … Continue reading Risk vs. Reward in Gold Becoming Positive