October Payrolls report: Slowly I turn... Here is the report from BLS: I've been waiting to wipe that spine chilling smile off her face. Well, what do we have here?…
Services and government do the lifting as usual, per the September payrolls report Click the graphic for the full September payrolls report from BLS: Americans continue to consume services at…
As the economy slows, the mortgage refinance boom is among the components of the "Goldilocks" economy Some media (along with anecdotal sources witnessed on X) are trumpeting how strong the…
The September 22 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#828) had some things to say about the FOMC action last week, before putting its tin foil hat back in…
The New York Fed's September Empire Manufacturing Survey trends back to positive My economic thesis is for contraction and a counter-cyclical environment. So the September Empire Manufacturing Survey flies in…
The August Payrolls report comes in a little light (142k) vs. expectations of 161k You can tap the image for the full BLS report: Here is the graphic included in…
Rosenberg recommends defensive positioning amid dis-inflationary, recessionary pressure The NFTRH theme has been disinflation and economic signals fading toward counter-cyclical. Check. Everybody's got the memo now. Even the tardy Fed…
Today's CPI inflation measure follows a PPI report showing that the enemy the public continues to obsess over is in the rear view mirror It was well over two years…
The Sahm Rule is getting airplay, but Sahm is not what I am... it is just one unexceptional and somewhat lagging indicator to the coming recession "We are pointed toward…
The June Payrolls Report ticks a hair above expectations Here is the full report: Hazel is keeping up a good front, grotesque smile intact. But her Leisure and Hospitality services…
Private Payrolls are the latest weak number (+150k) amid slow economic deceleration We anticipated Goldilocks back in Q4, 2022 - Q1, 2023 but she has been more intense and longer…
Government and Services continue to rudder the Good Ship Lollipop in the direction of Q4, Hazel's grotesque and winning smile intact (wave to the nice people, Hazel!) Here is the…
Jim Cramer micromanages the bond market and Fed Funds for you Jim Cramer wants you to know that Tuesday's supposedly poor market action prior to its in-day upward reversal was…
Still inverted, the yield curve is in countdown mode My daughter, who is taking an increasing interest in the economy now that she's out of school, working and trying to…